The forthcoming South African national election, slated for early May 2024, ranks as the most uncertain since 1994. It is also a significant event that will mark the first 30 years of our still young and vibrant democracy.

There is little agreement among pollsters and other commentators about the most probable outcome of the election that is now just seven months away. Of particular interest is the share of the vote that the ANC is likely to garner, with estimates ranging from about 38% to above 50%. What the ANC gets will clearly be a determining factor in our national politics.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Elections 2024

Although several polls have been made public, there has been a dearth of cogent scenario analysis on this landmark election to be found in the public discourse. Polls seek to identify the single most probable outcome based on the propensities of a representative sample of prospective voters.

In contrast, a scenario analysis seeks to identify the full range of plausible outcomes despite their varying probabilities. Because of this, scenarios are more useful when the degree of uncertainty is high.

An analysis of the possible outcomes

In this article, I offer and explore an analysis that comprises five scenarios to map the technically possible outcomes of the 2024 national election on a more objective basis. These scenarios are derived from the range of possible outcomes and are informed by the 2019 national election outcome, and secondarily, by the recent polls on the 2024 election.

The scenarios presented in the table below are based on my construal of the upper and lower limits that are achievable for the major parties. Within these limits, the outcome for each party is then varied in increments to produce the five scenarios. In doing so, it is assumed that votes may be exchanged between the DA-led coalition and the “Other” category, and also between the ANC and the EFF.

Taken together, these scenarios represent the space of possibility for the 2024 election outcomes. It is my contention that there are no other plausible scenarios than the ones depicted below.

Five national election scenarios for 2024. (Table: Supplied)

Each scenario, if it comes to pass, will shape politics at the national level. Some of the ways in which this might happen are discernible now. However, other features will only emerge and become apparent after the election.

The scenarios and their more discernible implications are briefly discussed below. I endeavoured to interpret the scenarios in the most objective and non-aligned manner that I could muster. This helped to identify plausible scenarios, but it also means that my interpretations of them can only be brief and broad.

Scenario 1 — an ANC-led coalition with the EFF

Scenario 1 will be the result of the lowest performance by the ANC and the highest performance by a DA-led coalition, and by the EFF. If we assume that a DA-EFF coalition is a non-starter, then the only way to form a national government in this scenario will be through an ANC-EFF coalition.

A DA-led coalition will not achieve the numbers needed to form a majority coalition.

Scenario 1 implies that the ANC will lose one or more provinces to a DA-led coalition. However, the ANC is still likely to retain its majority in the Ncop. Where this coalition wins provinces, it will govern them tenuously (by slight majorities) amid high political instability and horse-trading.   

One major effect of this scenario would be a continuous policy tussle between the ANC and EFF. Another would be a tussle over executive positions immediately after the election. Although one could imagine that such a coalition could become an enlightened alliance of the Left, the medium-term result is more likely to be an unstable political marriage of convenience.

As has been so evident in our metros, South African coalitions are highly unstable and they coincide with worsening public service delivery.

Scenario 2 — a marginal ANC majority

Scenario 2 will occur if the ANC wins a slight majority (51% to 55%). This would result from a weakening of its 2019 outcome (57%) and from slightly stronger outcomes for a DA-led coalition, and the EFF.

The ANC may also lose a province in this scenario but will retain a clear majority in the Ncop.

The effects of this could be increased policy uncertainty and a less assertive approach by the ANC in parliamentary processes. Political instability will increase; however, the ANC will still be able to pursue its national agenda, albeit at a reduced pace.

Scenario 3 — the ANC retains its current majority

Scenario 3 represents the 2019 outcome. This would result from a straightforward continuation of the status quo ante.

The effect of this will be a consolidation of ANC governance under conditions of legislative, policy and executive stability. Such a consolidation will be more pronounced if the renewal of the ANC continues.

Scenario 4 – A strengthened ANC majority

Contrary to what one might gather from the mainstream media, a strengthened ANC majority is quite plausible. The ANC disposes of many achievements in the public interest and its process of renewal, although it has been slow and chequered, is becoming more evident to non-aligned researchers and commentators.

However, the extent to which black South Africans are persuaded by the renewal of the ANC and its manifesto is the extent to which this scenario is more likely to come about.

The effect of this outcome could be the consolidation by the ANC of a stable policy environment and a more settled and jacked-up public administration. These are conditions in which the ANC can pursue its agenda more assertively.

Opposition politics will not recede in intensity — indeed it is likely to become even more vitriolic.   

Scenario 5 — a firm ANC mandate

Scenario 5, which is deemed unlikely by all accounts, has the ANC weighing in at 62% of the vote to secure a much firmer mandate. What renders this scenario plausible despite its unlikelihood is that the ANC achieved 62% in 2014 and even higher proportions in prior elections.

The effects of this outcome would be similar to those of scenario 4.

Conclusion

The 2024 election is an immensely important event which portends a turning point for South Africa. It certainly feels like it will be an acid test for all of us.

General elections in South Africa since 1994 have and still hold the promise of a shift towards the good. We should not lose sight of the hopefulness and potentiality of this moment.

At the same time, it should be noted that democratic participation has been declining worldwide and public trust in democratic governance has been severely eroded. Although South African voter turnouts in national elections — 66% in 2019 — are high by international standards, they too have been in decline.

The proportion of voters that turn out on the day will have some influence on which scenario comes about. Increased voter turnouts will favour the ANC, EFF, IFP and the smaller parties. On the other hand, reduced voter turnouts will favour the DA and the FF+.     

The overall implication of these scenarios is that the ANC led by Cyril Ramaphosa will not be unseated at the national level. Apart from scenario 1 — which is highly unlikely — the ANC will retain effective national political power in both houses of Parliament and President Ramaphosa will continue into his second term in office.

If I had to make a prediction it would be that the outcome of the 2024 national election will occur somewhere between scenario 3 (in which the ANC obtains 57% of votes) and scenario 4 (60% for the ANC). There is little substantive difference between the political effects of these two scenarios. DM