It has been a rather difficult last few years for the ruling party, the ANC, hasn’t it? The early 1990s was the euphoria of the negotiations and entering into our democratic era. The Mandela years were an adjustment at first, with a cash-strapped government thanks to the Nats, an HIV pandemic and a race project that needed his full attention. Reconciliation and the signing of the constitution cemented our young democracy but the inequality, unemployment and poverty remained stark.
Then came the Mbeki era, the real reconstruction of South Africa began, difficult choices had to be made, hence Gear (Growth, employment and redistribution) and tossing the RDP policy. The result was seven unbroken years of growth of the economy not seen since the heydays of the 1970s. This also meant that we could build up our foreign cash reserves to a respectable level. The most extensive social welfare system with 18 million recipients was rolled out, a massive feat for our citizens, in particular our aged and the children. There were of course also challenges, such as the ANC’s handling of the HIV pandemic and not investing in energy infrastructure for the future. The result of the former is one of the most expansive antiretroviral rollout campaigns in the world, and the latter once we had sufficient cash, investing into an energy build programme, including alternative energy sources. Who would’ve thought that?
Then came the Zuma years, the first five years were pretty decent. We hosted the very successful Soccer World Cup and invested billions in an infrastructure build programme, the likes of which had not seen for a long while, but unfortunately, it was preceded by the worst financial crisis of the modern era in 2009. We lost a million jobs as a result and global trade tanked which negatively affected our imports and exports. This together with the creeping up of the corruption phenomenon from before the democratic era already sealed our fate, it seems.
No surprises here, after all, it’s what everyone expected from these blacks. It’s inevitable that they would fall prey to corrupt practices and malfeasance, what did you expect? And to top it all off, the manner in which the ANC handled this was nothing short of pathetic.
Now, with the Ramaphosa period upon us, we have seen some good decisions in the right direction, albeit slowly. Whether it be their own kin having to step aside and relinquish their leadership positions in the party and in government, or whether it be the restructuring of the SOEs’ governance structures. Contrary to popular wrong perceptions, much has been done to curtail corrupt practices these last few years. Sars and the NPA are back on track, there have been numerous arrests at provincial and local government levels, and pending court cases galore.
Then there was the dismal performance in the last local government elections. All this, according to many, means the final days of the governing party. They won’t last past the 30-year mark, just look at the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, they couldn’t survive 30 years. And after they fell from grace, so to speak, it took them another few decades before they could return to power in some other reincarnation.
Is this the fate of the ANC too? Many liberation parties on the continent did not make the 20-year post-colonial mark. So, what will be the ultimate fate of the ANC? It seems pretty clear for now that President Ramaphosa has no real contender come the ANC’s National elective conference in December 2022. Ace, Gumede, Zwane and many more will receive their well-deserved prison sentences and the respective ANCs in the provinces will buy into the Ramaphosa long game making it easier to support him.
Here’s a scenario: the ANC decides that in keeping with the reform agenda, Ronald Lamola must be the deputy president, young and courageous, a talented lawyer and a rising star in the party. The secretary-general choice is David Makhura. He cut his teeth as premier of the most populous and wealthiest province in the country, his youth and student activism stood him in good stead too. His deputy is Febe Potgieter, a principled cadre, former ambassador and former NEC member. The treasurer is David Masondo — a Marxist and yet a pragmatist. The chairperson position they decide to give to Zamani Saul. A brilliant thinker and a committed cadre to the end.
By 2024, receiving electricity services from three separate entities is the norm, with generation, distribution and transmission all operating separately. The ANC has been considerately executing the land expropriation without compensation policy and the Reserve Bank has not been nationalised, but a State Bank has been set up to effectively deal with a mandate concerning employment among others in particular. The ANC also takes to heart some of the concerns raised by former president Mbeki and has begun to register fewer members believing in “better few but better”.
Next year in February 2022 at the opening of Parliament, President Ramaphosa announces not only the extension of the special Covid grant but also an unemployment grant for those who are looking for work but cannot find it. This will add an additional seven million well-deserving citizens to the social security net. This will go a far way in meeting the most basic needs of the poorest of the poor in our country.
Now, before you all tell me that this is simply fantasy and wishful thinking, let’s take a moment to also interrogate another little phenomenon which everyone among the chattering classes dismisses as “poppycock”, and that is the sentiment that without the ANC, SA will be in peril.
With all its flaws and self-righteousness, the ANC does manage the race question in SA rather better than any other political party in the country. What I mean by this is that only the ANC could have managed the July protests in the manner they did. Only the ANC can handle the National Question and mobilise the black majority and protect the interests of the white minority. The state of opposition parties in our beloved country should tell us as much.
The DA can hardly manage their internal race politics at a leadership level and their liberal emphasis on meritocracy given the recent past of SA tells me they are not ready to govern a complex race question just yet. The less said about white hate and taking back private property rights by the EFF the better. I won’t even dignify the smaller identity politics parties because their contribution to further entrench race politics in our country is self-evident.
So, tell me honestly, who can manage the race question in our country? If ever there is a political party that can negotiate a social compact in our country because they have the majority support through the vote you must agree it’s the ANC, or at least without it at the table, it won’t succeed.
With all these aspects covered, addressing electricity shortfalls, corruption in the ruling party, and needs for reform in the labour and product markets must remain priorities. An added bonus is an announcement that finally, the Guptas’ extradition back to SA has arrived and that they will come and face justice.
I reckon the governing party might survive a little longer than most predict or hope for. DM