With regard to the Opinionista article by Liz McDaid in Business Maverick of 19 November 2020 titled “Connecting the dots: Red lights are flashing over what appears to be nuclear-by-stealth”, it is necessary to restate some of the dots (facts) so the reader can connect for themselves and interpret the picture they see.
In the IRP 2019, the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) clearly states that it is committed to “a diversified energy mix that reduces reliance on a single or a few primary energy sources”. The plan is to reduce the dependence on coal by decommissioning 24GW of capacity in the planning period of 2030 to 2050, taking into consideration developments in the international space and the need for adequate preparation. Policy Decision 8 clearly states: “Commence preparations for a nuclear build programme to the extent of 2,500 megawatts at a pace and scale that the country can afford because it is a no-regret option in the long term.”
In May 2020, the minister announced, in keeping with the provisions of IRP 2019, that the department would “begin work on a road map for the procurement of 2,500MW of new nuclear capacity. It will consider ‘all options’, including small modular reactor (SMR) projects led by private companies and consortiums.”
This was followed in June 2020 by the publication of the Request for Information (RFI). The document is comprehensive, expecting elaboration of technical issues as well as possible funding models. It also requires the bidders to address the “degree to which the proposed SMR technology is related to South Africa’s previous experience in SMR development (namely PBMR)”.
Steve Jobs, in his famous commencement speech at Stanford University, said “you can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards”. We can indeed connect the dots, but the big picture we see is influenced by our paradigms and perception. If one is hellbent on judging the DMRE in terms of perceptions of past behaviour, one will see a certain picture. When some of us who are not anti-nuclear connect the dots, we see a different picture altogether. Even the so-called red lights that are flashing ... to some of us they mean we need to plan urgently for the future nuclear build.
Taking into consideration all the above developments, it is surprising that some outspoken civic organisations are crying foul and labelling the process secretive and an attempt to introduce nuclear by stealth. The emphasis on SMRs and the consideration for these projects to be led by private companies and consortiums should be welcomed by organisations that are concerned about misuse of state funds.
What are these organisations afraid of if they are confident that their assertions that nuclear is unreasonable and undesirable are true? It is imperative that the national planning processes should take into consideration short-, medium- and long-term horizons. Many countries have 50-year-plus plans. Nuclear new build may not be in the period to 2030, but the planning and preparation for it is well articulated in the IRP 2019, so that it can be implemented as soon as possible post 2030.
It is clearly stated in the IRP 2019 that the decommissioning of 24GW of coal capacity will be replaced by clean energy technologies that include nuclear. Planning, by definition, is for the future not for now. Thus connecting the dots backward, if Eskom had been allowed to build new capacity when it predicted that a crisis was looming, South Africa would not have experienced devastating load shedding.
The UK is an example of a developed country bolstering its nuclear capacity. The US’s International Development Finance Corporation recently announced that it will support South Africa’s new nuclear build plans. All our BRICS counterparts have adopted an inclusive energy mix. Other African countries are in the process of going the nuclear route as well. According to the World Nuclear Association, seven sub-Saharan Africa countries have signed agreements to deploy nuclear power.
A robust energy mix that has a developmental focus is needed for South Africa and the plan should have nuclear as a major component. DM