On the eve of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), where artificial intelligence and automation are expected to alter our understanding of and relationship with work, you may be forgiven for having a somewhat pessimistic view of the future of work. Coupled with threats posed by runaway climate change and an increasingly multi-polar geopolitical and economic landscape, society is entering uncharted territory.
In South Africa, this uncertainty is of particular concern given our high rates of unemployment, inequality and poverty – all of which will be exacerbated by the impacts of climate change.
This begs the question – will our children be lucky enough to avoid dangerous and underpaid work, or will robots replace them and leave them jobless?
Will climate change lock us in a perpetual poverty trap, or will we as a species rise to the occasion, and undertake necessary adaptation and mitigation efforts to create a just and sustainable South Africa?
In light of the mega-trends of climate change and automation, it is imperative that South Africa actively plans for and manages a just transition to a more sustainable and inclusive society.
Economic activities and work do not operate in isolation from our natural environment. Climate change and environmental degradation will negatively affect jobs that depend on and benefit from ecosystem services and natural processes and will have knock-on effects on other jobs as well.
According to a study by the International Labour Organisation (ILO), around 1.2 billion jobs in 2014, or 40% of global employment, were in industries that depend heavily on natural processes and are directly threatened by climate change.
Continued advances in technology and artificial intelligence have generated fear of widespread job losses across a range of sectors, occupations and skill levels. This is particularly challenging for developing economies that may be forced to adopt capital-intensive technologies (equipment and machinery) due to an evolving socio-technical landscape – even while large numbers of the population remain unemployed.
This, in turn, threatens their comparative advantage in the global labour market. According to a recent World Bank report, two-thirds of the developing world’s labour is susceptible to automation. This report estimated that approximately 65% of jobs in South Africa are at risk.
Instead of pitting policy choices as a zero-sum game between addressing climate change and generating new jobs, we urgently need to start engaging in a fundamentally different conversation that takes an integrated approach to policy making. Unfortunately, this is still not the case in top-level policymaking.
Recent scientific findings make it abundantly clear that no future scenario remains immune to the impact of climate change.
From the Poles to the Himalayas, from cities to oceans, from humans to natural systems, everything is vulnerable to climate change. To not factor in the existential threat of our time in the future of work is at best a missed opportunity to drive real change, and at worst an act of criminal negligence.
The nature of work will inevitably change in response to the physical impacts of climate change and to our transition towards a low-carbon, high-tech economy. But how will this manifest itself in South Africa?
Our history and persistent inequalities present a unique and indeed complex case. In spite of being a developing country, South Africa is one of the most carbon-intensive economies in the world with a history of inequality and unjust labour practices. Our economy was built on the backbone of fossil fuels and the exploitation of cheap and migrant labour. Even after 25 years of democracy, we continue to live in the long shadow of apartheid.
While we need to identify solutions that work within our own unique South African context, we also need not reinvent the wheel. It is important that we learn from the international community and from their policy and social experiments.
The European Commission, for example, is calling for a climate-neutral Europe by 2050. Germany’s coal exit commission has proposed a coal exit by 2038. Plans to add new coal capacity in China and India have seen a drop of 86% and 83% respectively. One might also ask if there is space in South Africa’s national political landscape for a Green Party that challenges incongruous development models.
Most importantly, we need strong and decisive political leadership to drive and direct a just transition. We welcome the first steps in the form of the Framework Agreement coming out of the 2018 Job Summit and the establishment of the Presidential Climate Change Co-ordinating Commission. However, among a cohort of 115 countries – both developed and developing – South Africa is ranked as the second-least prepared country in the world for implementing a low-carbon energy transition.
Needless to say, the journey to a low-carbon future will be arduous and demanding. It is vital that the Co-ordinating Commission urgently begins crafting an integrated approach to the challenges posed by climate change and 4IR.
The Commission should facilitate open and inclusive dialogues between all stakeholders and ensure that any policies and regulations towards a just transition are actually implemented.
Top of the agenda should be to find a way to protect jobs by leveraging automation in a manner that also addresses climate change. Realising a healthy environment in which workers and communities not only have social and economic benefits but also have access to nature and thriving ecosystems will determine the sustainability of our common future.
Our newly elected government should actively integrate climate change policy across all sectors of the economy and across all government departments to ensure that policymakers are cognisant of the existential threat facing humanity, nature and the planet.
The only certainty in the future is that climate change and automation will determine the future of work. We can either prepare for a favourable future in an integrated manner, or we risk being blindsided by one of these mega-trends.
After all, there are no jobs on a dead planet. DM
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