What happens next in the DA if Steenhuisen goes?

A press conference announcing that DA leader John Steenhuisen will address “matters of national importance” on Wednesday, 4 February 2026, was always going to invite speculation that what has seemed increasingly inevitable in recent months is coming to pass: Steenhuisen will announce that he will not seek re-election as DA leader at the next party congress in April.

DA sources have confirmed that this is the case, both to Daily Maverick and other local outlets.

The likelihood of this being Steenhuisen’s big announcement is heightened by his choice of location for the press conference: on his home turf in eThekwini.

Here, surrounded by his supporters, Steenhuisen can announce what is effectively his resignation in a way that projects dignity and strength rather than defeat. He can remind his KZN power base of how his political career began, canvassing door to door for the DA in Durban, and reflect on all that has been achieved until this full-circle moment.

Read more: Steenhuisen expected to step down as DA leader — reports

So why do Steenhuisen and his team seem so hell-bent on denying that this is the case?

The DA leader, who makes no secret of his hostility towards the media, tweeted just after midday on Tuesday: “Tomorrow at 10am, I will make an announcement of national importance. Until you see me outlining the full set of facts tomorrow, avoid speculation.”

More significant than his words, potentially, was the image Steenhuisen used to accompany them: an iconic photograph from US media history showing a beaming US president Harry S Truman gleefully holding up a newspaper bearing the headline “Dewey Defeats Truman” – after a Chicago newspaper incorrectly called the 1948 US presidential election in favour of Truman’s opponent.

It is an image used as shorthand for the fallibility of political predictions by journalists, pollsters and pundits.

If Steenhuisen is serious about the analogy, what this would mean is that he will take to the podium tomorrow and tell the country that in fact he has no intention of stepping down as DA leader – which would hardly warrant a press conference of “national importance” given that it is the same position that he has stubbornly maintained on multiple occasions over the past few months, even as internal party pressure has grown.

But Steenhuisen’s closest party ally, Dean Macpherson, has also put his head on the block, telling News24 of the speculation: “As John’s previous and upcoming campaign manager, this is completely untrue. He has repeatedly gone on the record to say he is available for a third term.”

Denial? An attempt to muddy the waters while last-minute details of a Steenhuisen deal are being haggled over? All will be revealed. (Or not.)

Steenhuisen strikes a deal

DA insiders say that a deal between Steenhuisen and the party has been on the table for a while.

Steenhuisen agrees not to seek re-election as party leader in April, and in exchange the incoming leader of the DA – whose prerogative it will become to fill the DA’s assigned posts in the GNU Cabinet, subject to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s approval – will allow him to keep his position as minister of agriculture.

This is a job Steenhuisen is determined to keep, at least in part because of its ministerial salary. Daily Maverick first reported last November that Steenhuisen had a default judgment granted against him in the Cape Town Magistrate’s Court in May 2025 for unpaid personal credit card debt of almost R150,000.

Such a deal might prove difficult to sell to the DA’s farming constituency, among whom anger at Steenhuisen’s department is reaching fever pitch due to a perceived failure to adequately handle the current foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in cattle.

Daily Maverick understands, however, that some DA donors are adamant that Steenhuisen has attracted too much negative attention in recent months due to the fallout from his still mysterious decision to axe then environment minister Dion George. Their preferred candidate is the more polished, less prickly current Mayor of Cape Town, Geordin Hill-Lewis.

The stumbling block has been Hill-Lewis’ reluctance to stand against longtime friend Steenhuisen – but if Steenhuisen has been leaned upon not to stand, Hill-Lewis’ path is cleared.

It is highly unlikely that Hill-Lewis would run for leadership entirely unopposed in April. The optics of that would be disastrous for a party of “democrats”, giving the impression that Hill-Lewis is an entirely parachuted-in candidate anointed by big business. Realistically, however, there is nobody in the DA who looks likely to give Hill-Lewis even close to a run for his money in that election.

Hill-Lewis’ own condition for availing himself for the DA leadership, meanwhile, is likely to be the agreement that he can maintain his position as mayor of Cape Town. The DA’s Federal Executive is likely to also favour this in a local government election year, with Cape Town the jewel in the DA’s crown.

There is some precedent for this: former DA leader Helen Zille was elected party head in May 2007 while mayor of Cape Town, and held the two roles simultaneously for two years.

Stakes are high

Whether Wednesday’s announcement brings the clarity DA members and South African voters are seeking, or simply adds another layer to what has become an increasingly opaque internal party drama, remains to be seen.

What is certain is that the party faces a critical juncture: with local government elections looming and its role in the GNU under scrutiny, the DA can ill afford prolonged leadership uncertainty or the perception of backroom dealing.

Steenhuisen’s choice of the Truman photograph suggests he may yet have one more surprise up his sleeve. But if the media speculation proves correct, the real test will be whether the party’s succession plan can restore stability and unity, or whether the messy politics of this transition will overshadow whatever fresh start a new leader might promise. DM