US makes clear it will oppose a G20 Johannesburg Leaders’ Declaration

The South African G20 Summit next weekend is looking increasingly unlikely to issue the usual G20 Leaders’ Declaration, after the US made it clear that it would oppose anything beyond a “Chair’s Statement”.

If so, this 20th summit would be the first since G20 summits began in 2008 not to issue a consensus leaders’ declaration. The prospects of such a declaration were fading anyway, but dimmed considerably after the US spelt out its position at the weekend. 

“The United States has sent a clarifying note regarding its participation in the South Africa Summit. The essence of the message is that Washington will oppose the issuance of any G20 deliverable beyond a Chair’s Statement,” one of the G20 sherpas informed other countries.

President Donald Trump had earlier announced that no US government official would attend the summit, which would itself be unprecedented and damaging. 

In theory, South Africa and most other G20 members that support its ambitious developmental agenda could simply bypass the US – and its fervent supporter Argentina – and issue a Leaders’ Declaration. But several G20 countries seem wary of defying the US so openly, and in any case, believe the principle of reaching G20 decisions by consensus should be inviolable. 

A G20 diplomat told Daily Maverick that it now looked likely that the summit, which is to be held at the Johannesburg Expo Centre at Nasrec, would end next Sunday with a Chair’s Statement which would include a special mention for agreements on particular issues that had been reached by consensus.

South Africa’s sherpa, Director-General of International Relations and Cooperation Zane Dangor, is chairing a meeting this week of all sherpas for G20 member states and guest countries to decide on these and other issues.

One diplomat said the key thing was not the form of the outcome document, but rather to ensure it captured all the important discussions and agreements which had been held over the past year in preparation for the summit.

However, John Kirton, director of the G20 Research Group at the University of Toronto, said issuing a Chair’s Statement rather than a Leaders’ Declaration “would be a major retreat, especially if the chair’s statement had not been seen or discussed and agreed by all members in advance, as it was at the G7 Kananaskis Summit in June.

“But even a declaration issued without Trump or any US official there would be a major blow.

“It’s unlikely Trump or US officials would agree to, or feel bound by, one.

“And the new Argentinian foreign minister, having just visited Washington, would probably veto much or all, as Trump would want him to do,” Kirton said, referring to Argentine President Javier Milei’s announcement last week that he would also not attend the summit, and would instead send his foreign minister Pablo Quirno to represent him. Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Russian President Vladimir Putin are also not attending the summit.

Read more: As leaders pull out of the G20, who can capitalise on the opportunity?

Kirton, explaining his reference to the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada, said that summit had issued consensus declarations on several specific subjects, but only an overall Chair’s Statement delivered by the host, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. However, Kirton said that Carney had discussed the content of his Chair’s Statement with Trump at the summit dinner before issuing it, and Trump had not opposed it. 

In an article posted on the G20 Research Group’s website, Kirton wrote, “The Johannesburg Summit is likely to produce a small performance. It could even be the G20’s first failed summit since the first in 2008. The absence of the leaders of the US and China – the two largest economies in the world – along with Russia, Mexico and Argentina, means a few big bargains between the North and the South can and will be struck on the spot.”

Kirton said the compliance of the G20 leaders with the commitments made in Johannesburg would be “historically low” as five leaders “will not be personally attached to the promises made there.”

He said the summit would receive far less attention back home in the key countries without their leaders there. “It will similarly do less to shape or create global governance institutions inside or outside the G20.

“Producing even a small performance will depend critically on the contributions of all the G7 leaders other than Trump, of the key leaders from the Global South’s leading democratic members of India, Brazil and Indonesia, and of South Africa as the chair.” DM