SA’s NDC crossroads — is the climate plan ambitious enough, and where do we go from here?

COP30 has concluded, and world and industry leaders, policymakers and civil society have shifted from critical negotiations to implementation following the global climate talks.

At the National Business Initiative’s inaugural South Africa Climate Summit on Monday and Tuesday, 24-25 November, in Johannesburg, this shift was on full display.

With COP30 fresh in delegates’ minds, a debate on South Africa’s recently submitted second National Determined Contributions (NDCs) came sharply into focus

The NDCs are the climate action plan each country prepares to outline what measures will be put in place to reduce emissions (mitigation) and build resilience against climate change impacts (adaptation). Because South Africa is a signatory to the Paris Agreement, a legally binding climate treaty, it is required to update its climate action plan to reflect the country’s “highest possible ambitions”.

Daly Maverick has reported that, according to the NDC, annual greenhouse gas emissions should be in the range of 350 to 420 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO₂-eq) by 2030. Then the range drops to 320-380 Mt CO₂-eq by 2035, hopefully en route to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

These figures mean a continued decline from South Africa’s peak emissions, aligning with Paris Agreement ambitions.

However, the United Nations Environment Programme's latest Gap Emissions report found that the entire world, not just South Africa, needs to ramp up climate action in order not to breach the 1.5°C threshold.

Why mitigation matters now more than ever

South Africa’s carbon-intensive economy places the nation among the top 20 worst greenhouse gas (GHG) polluters, with a global share of GHG emissions at 1.07%, according to the UN Development Programme’s Climate Promise.

It is also among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, as it frequently experiences intensifying drought, rising heat extremes, floods, collapsing ecosystems and growing threats to food, water and economic security.

Read more: SA’s chief climate negotiator on Belém — South Africa demands action, not debt, at decisive COP30

Speaking on the panel, Where to from here? South Africa’s NDC, facilitated by the Centre for Scientific and Industrial Research, Geeta Morar from the African Climate Foundation said that if the world continued on its current trajectory of unambitious emissions reductions, “We are on track to reach potentially a 2.5-degree future, a level of warming that would have catastrophic impacts.”

“If our emissions cut ambitions are not where they should be… the answer is: adapt, adapt, adapt, adapt,” Morar emphasised, urging investment in climate-resilient development in vulnerable regions.

A divide on ambition

Conversely, Paseka Mabina, director of climate change mitigation research and analysis in the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, defended the NDC as a balanced plan that takes South Africa’s economic and social realities into account.

Plagued by the triple challenge of poverty, unemployment and inequality, the government is adamant that climate action cannot be decoupled from development imperatives.

Mabina said South Africa must weigh job losses, inequality and energy security alongside climate ambition, adding: “To say that we were not ambitious would be unfair… we had to take into consideration the socioeconomic impacts.”

He also pointed to a robust policy architecture, carbon budgets, sectoral emission targets, energy efficiency strategies and forthcoming climate change regulations that will support implementation.

Before submitting the climate action plan to the UN, the department commissioned a report from the University of Cape Town on the viability of the NDC. The ACDI Technical Report also concluded that South Africa’s NDC would need far greater ambition, particularly in adaptation, because climate impacts are escalating faster than global climate action, and the widening global emissions gap means every country must raise its efforts to remain aligned with the Paris Agreement.

Implementation as the new frontier

Mitigation in South Africa lives or dies in the electricity sector. The new Integrated Resource Plan and the NDC expect massive expansions of wind, solar and storage to replace coal. But bottlenecks persist.

Speaking on a panel about the NDC implementation pathways, Niveshen Govender from the South African Wind Energy Association warned:

“Without accelerating investment into transmission infrastructure, these targets are not going to be met. It is as simple as that.”

Read more: ‘Doesn’t have teeth’ — experts voice concern about deferral of ‘key’ clauses in Climate Change Act

The wind developers also flagged regulatory uncertainty, erratic procurement rounds and slow environmental approvals as obstacles hindering billions in investment and thousands of jobs.

Financing was also a clear issue. Joanne Yawitch from the Presidential Climate Commission’s project management unit acknowledged that implementing the Just Energy Transition Investment Plan requires financing that the country does not have yet.

“We need new and innovative financing mechanisms… that de-risk what is necessary without unduly indebting the country,” she said.

Blended finance, grant support for vulnerable communities and improved public-private partnerships were repeatedly cited as priorities.

Where to from here?

Across both panels, five priorities emerged:

1. Resolve grid constraints—fast

Without transmission expansion, renewable energy cannot scale, and NDC targets become irrelevant.

2. Provide regulatory certainty

Businesses need multiyear procurement schedules, clarified wheeling rules and streamlined permitting.

3. Mobilise finance at scale

Developing nations need at least $450 billion annually for climate mitigation, adaptation and development; current flows sit below $190 billion globally

4. Double down on adaptation

From KwaZulu-Natal floods to Eastern Cape droughts, climate impacts are accelerating faster than emissions reductions.

5. Focus on people, not just emissions

Communities in Mpumalanga, Limpopo and the Free State must see tangible pathways to new industries, skills and livelihoods.

South Africa’s NDC may not satisfy those who demanded greater ambition, but ambition without implementation is meaningless. The real challenge now is ensuring that the plans, policies and pipelines translate into real-world change, and that the transition becomes a catalyst for inclusive development rather than another axis of inequality.

Between now and 2035, South Africa must decide what kind of future it wants to build and whether it will rise to the moment that history has placed before it. DM