Profit over people: A spotlight on South Africa’s contested energy landscape

Last week, outside the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, thousands of climate activists, including indigenous peoples and youth leaders, took to the streets in what they called the Great People’s March.

Protesters waved banners and chanted for the protection of the Amazon, demanding that governments uphold their promises to safeguard the environment, prioritise justice for communities on the frontlines of the climate crisis, and include indigenous voices in decision-making.

The march highlighted the growing disconnect between high-level negotiations and the lived realities of those most affected by climate change. Many protesters voiced scepticism about the outcomes of COP30, fearing that progress would continue to be too slow and insufficient.

The protest stands as a powerful reminder that the fight for climate justice goes beyond policy agreements: it’s about protecting land, respecting indigenous sovereignty, and ensuring that the world’s most vulnerable populations are heard and protected. The pressure was on for negotiators to deliver real, impactful change – not just more promises.

As the world faces escalating environmental crises, COP30 struggled to meet the urgency of the moment, arguably hindered by entrenched political interests, systemic inequalities and powerful forces determined to block meaningful change.

What was meant to be a decisive shift is seemingly mired by old challenges – a contested space where vested interests may be weakening abilities and opportunities to effectively respond to the scale of the climate crisis and the realisation of a just transition.

Read more: COP30 fails to deliver ambitious action on fossil fuels, adaptation, finance and forests

Reportedly, much of the frustration includes power imbalances that have formed within the negotiations. Wealthy nations arrive with vast delegations and expert legal teams, while poorer countries – often those most vulnerable to climate impacts – may have only a handful of negotiators juggling multiple roles.

Their influence is further diluted by the presence of thousands of fossil-fuel lobbyists – more than 1,600 this year – whose number surpasses the representation of entire regions facing existential climate threats. This dynamic not only skews the agenda toward incrementalism and probably significantly waters down solutions, but also erodes trust in a process that is supposed to offer all nations an equal voice.

South Africa’s polycrisis

Turning to home, South Africa’s electricity remains overwhelmingly coal-dependent – coal-fired power accounts for more than 80% of the energy mix. This makes it one of the world’s largest contemporary carbon polluters, and exposes communities near power stations and mines, such as those in Mpumalanga, to severe, often life-threatening health issues. These polluted areas can be characterised as “sacrifice zones”.

The country also faces extreme vulnerability to the long-term impacts of climate change – not only on the environment, but on agriculture, food security and livelihoods. The catastrophic 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) are a stark reminder of this. These floods claimed more than 400 lives, disproportionately affecting residents in informal settlements who are often already neglected by state support. Scientific analyses attribute the intensity and increasing frequency of these floods to human-caused climate change.

Abahlali base Mjondolo highlighted the impact of the intersection of environmental and political crises on human communities, stating, “Natural disasters become entwined with political disasters, often resulting in devastation for the poor.”

In KZN, the official unemployment rate for black women exceeded 40% in early 2022, reflecting broader national patterns in which youth and rural populations are disproportionately affected. Social protection mechanisms are limited, and real incomes are stagnating, exacerbating food insecurity.

Compounding these challenges are persistent energy shortages. For decades, households and businesses across the country have experienced rolling blackouts and intermittent electricity access. Despite South Africa’s high electrification rate, nearly half of households cannot meet basic energy needs, further highlighting an important disconnect between energy access and affordability.

Electricity tariffs have risen sharply in recent years, further burdening households already constrained by both energy poverty and inequality. Eskom and municipal authorities approved increases of 18.65% in 2023 and 12.74% in 2024-2025.

These increases, along with a state-sponsored R254-billion debt relief package, resulted in Eskom reporting a profit in 2025 for the first time in eight years. Again, at great cost to the public, a point acknowledged by Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa in a recent SABC news interview, “…electricity is expensive, and the situation is untenable. We are gradually eroding the disposable income of households”.

Private companies in South Africa seem to have borrowed from the international playbook. There is substantial evidence of private corporations in South Africa, who have historically been at the centre of the minerals-energy-complex, actively lobbying to maintain fossil fuel usage and weaken new laws designed to reduce pollution and tax carbon emissions.

In February 2023, the think tank, InfluenceMap, released an analysis of the policy activities of 16 major companies and 12 industry associations involved in shaping climate legislation in South Africa, including the Climate Change Bill and the Carbon Tax Act. The report found that, despite varying stances on climate ambition, these corporations and industry groups have largely acted as barriers to progressive policies, significantly diluting and delaying essential climate regulations.

In its 2025 report, The Obstruction Playbook, shareholder activism organisation Just Share reiterated how major polluters have actively weakened South Africa’s climate policies.

By piecing together internal documents and public records, Just Share demonstrated how private companies and business lobby groups, including Sasol and Busa (Business Unity South Africa), have successfully delayed measures that would force them to account for the significant “social and economic costs of their operations – costs which are often borne by the rest of society, especially the poorest and most vulnerable”.

This behaviour is not new. The minerals-energy complex underpinned the apartheid economy, enriching a network of powerful corporations and a white elite while financing the regime itself. The minerals-energy complex entrenched a political and economic system defined by extreme inequality and concentrated wealth. Its enduring influence remains one of the central reasons South Africa’s energy transition has moved so slowly.

Seen against this history, any progress toward a Just Energy Transition represents a significant shift – an attempt to push back against decades of entrenched corporate power built on fossil fuel extraction.

South Africa’s future energy mix — renewables to the fore

Given these structural factors resisting change, it was very encouraging that the latest Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) – finally gazetted last month following a long period of delays – includes an ambitious goal of achieving 70% of electricity from renewable sources by mid-century. This is significant, given renewable energy sources still only account for about 17% of energy generation today.

The IRP outlines a strategy for forecasting South Africa’s energy mix and addressing the country’s projected electricity needs. It also plays a crucial role in determining whether South Africa can effectively transition to a low-carbon, climate-resilient economy and whether it can draw in climate finance and other types of investment while meeting the country’s development goals.

The IRP 2025 sets out a major expansion of South Africa’s energy system, projecting the addition of around 105,000MW of new generating capacity by 2039. The plan confirms onshore wind as the primary source of new generation capacity, with 34,000MW planned for the grid by 2039, with utility-scale solar PV following behind, with 25,000MW.

Notably, the IRP acknowledges the growing demand for energy storage solutions and has earmarked 8,500MW of battery storage, a much-needed step to ensure reliability and dispatchability. Coal, while still a significant part of the mix, is expected to decline sharply, with 10,000MW of ageing plants set to be decommissioned over the next 15 years.

The plan has also addressed the persistent challenge of grid capacity, allocating substantial investments to upgrading transmission and distribution infrastructure.

As a result, the IRP envisions huge growth in renewable energy sources and anticipates significant funding needs. In a media briefing, Ramokgopa began his presentation by stating that the IRP would be “the single biggest investment programme of a post-apartheid government”, with an estimated R2.2-trillion worth of investment required for the plan.

The scale of this investment makes it vital that the sector and how it is financed is driven by the principles of a just transition, and not just profit.

It should also be noted that major concerns remain regarding the planned roles for natural gas and nuclear energy in the latest IRP. It continues to earmark a significant role for natural gas, with the plan for a significant 16,000MW of gas-to-power plants by 2039.

This would introduce a new a reliance on gas, not only contradicting South Africa’s climate goals, but would also lock the country into an expensive and high-emissions energy source.

Equally concerning is the IRP’s mention of nuclear energy. While the plan reduces South Africa’s nuclear ambitions from previous iterations, it still allocates 5,200MW for nuclear power by 2040.

The high cost of nuclear builds remains a significant concern – especially considering the country’s precarious economic situation and pressing need for affordable energy solutions. There are also significant environmental and public risks that accompany nuclear power.

Who will benefit from South Africa’s renewable energy sector?

In addition to corporations working to obstruct the transition away from fossil fuels, many – including fossil fuel companies themselves – are positioning themselves to profit from the rise of “green” energy. There is significant private sector investment in low-carbon economies, but this shift risks perpetuating existing inequalities, with the financial gains flowing primarily into the hands of private entities rather than benefiting broader society.

The new IRP gives new impetus to this concern precisely because it calls for massive new investment in the renewable energy sector, expanding the opportunity to profit. This is a global reality. Bloomberg’s New Energy Finance reported a record high of $386-billion global investment into renewable energy in the first half of 2025.

South Africa’s shift to renewable energy has already been heavily privatised.

Between 2015 and 2024, South Africa’s installed renewable capacity expanded from 3.4GW to 13.5GW, marking a more than threefold increase. But individual rooftop solar power from commercial actors and private households made up 7.3GW – more than half. In comparison, the renewable capacity of all independent power producers contracted to Eskom – including photovoltaic (PV) solar power, concentrated solar power (CSP), wind power and hybrid producers – was just 7.1GW.

Eskom, South Africa’s state electricity company, continues to lag behind these trends, with it having very little public investment in renewable energy sources and only very recently implementing a separate renewable energy business.

There continues to be great appetite to increase financing of large-scale renewables in the country. By 31 March 2025, the total investment (total project costs including interest) of projects that reached financial close in REIPPPP’s bid windows 1 to 6 was R239-billion. This figure includes R43.1-billion (18%) in foreign investment and financing from countries such as Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, the US and UK.

Most recently, bid window 7 has so far confirmed about R31.4-billion for eight renewable energy projects, but the figure is expected to grow considerably. Fourteen projects in total have been selected, and the final investment figure will be determined only once negotiations are completed and preferred bidders reach financial close, anticipated in early 2026.

Yet, patterns of investment and ownership in the renewables sector risk leaving intact the inequalities that exist, and that would see benefits flow exclusively into private hands.

In our 2023 Who has the Power? report, Open Secrets outlined how a number of the renewable energy projects awarded through REIPPP have benefited international corporations and shareholders, including instances when domestic partners own the project on behalf of an international player.

This is just one way in which the transition to green energy can reinforce old patterns of extraction and facilitate elite enrichment at the expense of local communities.

These corporate interests are joined by many fossil fuel companies now positioning themselves to profit from “green” energy.

Exxaro and Seriti Resources are good examples – large coal mining companies that have profited from the devastation of the coal-based energy system, and who are now positioning themselves to benefit from the rush to renewable energy sources.

In a number of ways, South Africa’s renewable energy landscape hinges on the belief that private sector investment will fund the renewable energy needed for the country’s energy transition.

While financial backing is crucial, there are concerns that the real driving force isn’t emissions reduction or environmental protection, but rather ensuring that investors and shareholders in renewable energy projects see substantial profits – where the primary goal is financial return, not genuine environmental or social progress in South Africa.

South Africa’s renewable energy space sector remains a complex web and a delicate balancing act between private profit, public control and community rights. Private companies build and operate projects, while the government, through the various state departments, sets the rules and manages procurement. Public finance institutions, like the DBSA and commercial banks, finance the projects.

While there are efforts made by REIPPPP to include important aspects such as local community empowerment targets, the reality on the ground is that a number of communities living in the shadow of renewable energy infrastructure projects are still struggling to secure meaningful participation, ownership and share in the benefits. A “just’ energy transition in South Africa will only be realised if development is inclusive, intentional and shaped by the voices of the people it most affects.

Continued profit over people?

COP30 is a reminder that the struggle against fossil fuel interests is still raging, and the same is true in South Africa. Yet, while progress is being made here, we should take heed.

The latest IRP calls for the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources, but this is no silver bullet. The profit-driven motives of powerful private corporations may undermine, or derail, the promise of a just energy transition in South Africa.

Part of the danger is that environmental protection becomes just another bargaining chip, safeguarded only if it serves financial interests.

As South Africa shifts away from fossil fuels, we must ask: Will this transition be any different from the destructive greed of the coal giants that has placed profits over people and the planet for decades?

This is a question that looms large in South Africa’s contested energy space and the country’s efforts towards achieving a just transition. DM

Open Secrets is a nonprofit organisation which exposes and builds accountability for private sector economic crimes through investigative research, advocacy and the law. To support our work, visit Support Open Secrets.