European Champions League group phase set for blockbuster conclusion amid jostling for top eight

On the back of a demoralising domestic defeat to Manchester United over the weekend, Arsenal will be keen to bounce back in emphatic fashion in the final game of the European Champions League group phase. The Gunners lead the 36-team log standings and are guaranteed to be in the round of 16.

The only question Mikel Arteta’s men will have to answer on Wednesday, 28 January, is whether they can become the first team to win all eight league phase matches since the new Champions League format was introduced for the first time last season.

After his team’s 3-2 loss to Manchester United, Arteta had to defend his players after former Gunners’ captain Patrick Vieira questioned the team’s mental fortitude.

“We accept every opinion when it comes and where it’s coming from, if they have the right reasons to say it. At the end of the day, we have to show the mental strength that we have on the pitch, when it comes to matchday,” Arteta said.

Currently, the London-based outfit has managed seven wins from seven outings. It’s the same haul that Arne Slot’s team had managed at this stage of last season. They went on to become the first team to win the league phase.

Against Kazakhstan’s Kairat, who have already been eliminated from the competition, the Gunners are gunning for league phase perfection. On paper, it should be one-way traffic. But soccer games are not won on paper.

Nonetheless, the Gunners have all but secured first place in the league phase. Only defeat in London, coupled with a mammoth victory for second-placed Bayern Munich over PSV Eindhoven, would see the Gunners relinquish top spot.

Jostling for places

The incentive for the top two teams is the fact that they will be kept at opposite ends of the round of 16 draw, meaning that they can only meet in the final. But only if they make it that far, as Liverpool found out last season.

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), fresh off a playoff against fellow French side Brest, eliminated the Reds in the round of 16. This after Slot’s troops had comfortably navigated the league phase, losing just once. The Parisians then went on to be crowned European champions for the first time ever, underlining that there is no perfect formula for success in the continental competition.

While at the top Bayern and Arsenal have already secured their place in the round of 16 proper, and don’t have to worry about potentially participating in the playoffs, the rest of the top eight is far from secured.

Real Madrid and Liverpool occupy third and fourth place respectively, leading the next best two teams by two points. Nevertheless, Los Blancos and the Reds are still not guaranteed a top-eight finish – unless they win their respective final league phase matches.

Record European champions Real come up against Benfica, who are currently coached by the club’s former manager José Mourinho. Liverpool will be up against Qarabağ. The Azerbaijani team will travel 4,157km to face the Reds, the furthest any team has travelled to play at Anfield Stadium.

For the Spanish giants the equation is simple, win and qualify for the round of 16. But Benfica will be stubborn as they know that to stand any chance of being one of the 16 teams to qualify for the playoff, they must win. Anything less than that will see the Portuguese side eliminated from the competition. They are currently 29th, with just six points from seven matches.

They will come up against a Real side spearheaded by French superstar Kylian Mbappé. The 27-year-old has scored 11 goals to date in the 2025/26 Champions League season, equalling Cristiano Ronaldo’s record for the most goals scored in a Champions League group stage. Ronaldo recorded his mark in the 2015/16 season, when the group stage only had six matches.

Top eight contenders

Teams such as La Liga log leaders Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta sit just outside the top eight. They are level on 13 points with teams occupying the coveted top eight, such as PSG and Newcastle United.

The defending champions and Newcastle play each other, which may provide a major opportunity for the outliers to sneak into the top eight should they win their games. Whoever loses between the two will fall out of the top eight and into the playoff spots, which means they will have to play two extra games to book a place in the round of 16.

Chelsea round of the top eight spots, cognisant that victory over Napoli in Italy would secure their place in the round of 16, without the need for an annoying playoff. Napoli are one spot out of the playoff places and they know that defeat against the Blues would end their European adventure prematurely.

For the first time, all 18 matches will kick off at the exact same time – 10pm on Wednesday. This will create a tense atmosphere as positions of teams shift on the table in real time. With the closeness of some teams on the table, factors such as goal difference and goals scored will be crucial. DM