Why mid-corporates are moving carefully into 2026

For much of the year, it has felt like sitting behind the wheel with the engine running and the road ahead clear, only to realise that the handbrake is still engaged. Plans are ready, intent is strong, but progress has been slower and more cautious than expected.

On paper, the backdrop has appeared more supportive: inflation has eased, interest rates have begun to show early signs of relief, and energy supply has stabilised. In boardrooms, capital structures have been reassessed, investment plans revisited, and growth scenarios stress-tested with renewed confidence.

Global trade tensions escalated more sharply than many anticipated, turning tariffs from a background risk into a daily operational constraint. Policy ambiguity and geopolitical spillover complicated planning and stretched decision-making cycles, slowing expansion and forcing investment decisions to become more deliberate, while ambitions for growth gave way to focus on resilience.

What has marked this period is not a loss of intent, but a shift in approach. Rather than focusing on speed, mid-corporate leaders have prioritised protecting earnings, managing exposure, and preserving flexibility in volatile conditions. Decisions have become slower but more considered, reflecting a preference for durability over momentum.

Despite sustained pressure, several sectors have shown resilience. Agriculture has remained a stabilising force, contributing reliably even as broader conditions softened. Tourism has exceeded expectations as global instability redirected travel flows, while construction and professional services have held steady through selective demand. Meanwhile, manufacturing activity has persisted under ongoing pricing pressure from imported goods.

One structural shift has strongly influenced confidence and planning: a more predictable energy environment has materially altered boardroom discussions, with electricity moving from existential risk to a manageable input.

The most revealing developments, however, have not been visible in aggregate data. Mid-corporates have become far more deliberate about concentration risk, particularly where reliance on a single-export market leaves earnings vulnerable. In response, businesses have begun exploring alternatives across the Middle East, Asia, and broader regional corridors, even as lower-cost imports intensified competition at home.

As business strategies evolved, funding demand followed suit. While senior debt remains central, it has frequently proved insufficient on its own, particularly where growth opportunities require capital structures capable of absorbing volatility rather than amplifying it. This has driven increased interest in carefully constructed combinations of debt, equity participation, and private credit.

The role of technology followed a similarly pragmatic path. Rather than replacing relationships or automating judgement, the emphasis has been on securing transactions and improving execution speed.

It is against this late-year backdrop that Nedbank formally launched its mid-corporate capability in 2025, shaped by what clients were actually experiencing rather than by traditional banking segmentation. Mid-corporates are not simply businesses that sit between small enterprises and listed groups. They are often owner-managed or privately held organisations with mature balance sheets, established governance structures, and clearly articulated growth ambitions.

The response has prioritised focus rather than scale for its own sake. The mid-corporate proposition has been built around the depth of understanding, the speed of decision-making, and the ability to structure funding in ways that reflect each business's specific risk profile, with judgement and partnership taking precedence over volume.

Independent client research conducted during the year reinforced the relevance of this approach, with Nedbank emerging as the leading bank on key client experience and relationship metrics within the mid-corporate segment. Senior decision-makers consistently highlighted responsiveness, clarity, and relationship depth as differentiators.

Internally, the year has also demonstrated what becomes possible when operating models align with client reality. Simplified processes, quicker credit cycles, and greater client-facing capacity have translated into improved execution at moments that matter, without sacrificing the high-touch nature of mid-corporate banking, which remains essential where ownership, succession, and strategic decisions are closely intertwined.

As attention turns to 2026, cautious confidence is warranted, but only under clear conditions. Interest rate relief is beginning to filter through, energy stability has improved, strengthening planning certainty, and credit sentiment has strengthened as operational discipline becomes more visible.

Heading into the new year, preparedness has become the defining difference, reflecting a period that favoured adaptability over speed. Businesses are entering the next cycle with sharper discipline, from which 2 themes are emerging: insight-led digitisation and consolidation through carefully selected bolt-on acquisitions.

Balance sheet structure will remain as important as headline growth. Businesses will increasingly benefit from banking partners capable of combining considered funding design and progressive payment capability.

As the year draws to a close, the lesson from the handbrake moment is not about hesitation, but about control and timing. Releasing the brake too quickly risks losing traction. Holding it too long constrains momentum. The coming period will favour those who understand when to apply pressure and when to ease it, and those who work with partners able to support both pace and balance as conditions gradually begin to align. DM

Author: Herman de Kock, Managing Executive: Mid-corporate at Nedbank