New year, fresh hope for SA — holding thumbs in 2026 should be better than in 2025

A little bit of optimism can be a dangerous thing. But for the first time in many years there is reason to believe that there will be important positive changes for South Africa in 2026. Unfortunately the outlook for 2027 is slightly different.

Looking back to the start of the year there were many reasons to believe we would end up worse in December than we were in January. The national coalition looked shaky, and had yet to even discuss, let alone pass, a budget.

There was consistent public speculation that some factions in the ANC would force Cyril Ramaphosa out as President, with the possible consequence of ending the coalition and inviting Julius Malema and Jacob Zuma into government.

While load shedding had receded, there was no certainty yet that it would not return, while mining companies complained that Transnet was still not delivering enough coal to the coast.

And US President Donald Trump was preparing to enforce what was feared would be crushing tariffs that would affect our economy.

Now, in December, we find ourselves in a much better position than in January.

A massive and sustained jump in the gold price has brought a huge amount of money into the country, and looks set to do this for some time. Tied to that, platinum prices have finally moved up, meaning more money is coming into that sector.

The Trump administration’s tariffs have not yet had a big impact on our economy, while the rest of the world appears to be rewiring its trade flows. Instead, the huge increase in Chinese exports has led to cheaper goods arriving here.

Inflation, a dynamic that can lead to so much fear, frustration and often political change, seems destined to remain low for the foreseeable future.

The national coalition looks stronger now than at any time since its formation. Crucially, it appears that all of the parties have now recognised that this government is making progress.

As a result they have a stake in maintaining that progress. The more progress that is made the stronger the incentive for them to remain together.

And the central figure in that coalition, Ramaphosa, now appears to be in a much stronger position. His apparent mastery of the G20 gathering and the fact that the Trump administration misplayed its hand by boycotting the event, gave him momentum.

That momentum then flowed into the ANC’s National General Council where there was no public discussion of any move to remove Ramaphosa.

And there can be no doubt that the market has started to believe that South Africa’s economy is about to improve in a major way.

Over the year, the JSE has soared. The index is up by about 30% since January. It is not only gold and other mining stocks, but broadly speaking the value of most listed companies has increased dramatically.

The rand has strengthened through the year, partly because Trump’s consistent threats to the independence of the US Federal Reserve have weakened the dollar.

And load shedding has receded from public memory to the point where a load shedding scheduling app has been repurposed by its owners.

For the moment there appears very little chance of these processes being disrupted.

Geopolitical risks, the Trump administration’s continued pressure on the US Federal Reserve and concerns from other central banks about the future of various currencies means that demand for gold is likely to stay high for the foreseeable future.

While there is still no trade agreement with the US, for the moment, there has been no huge impact on our economy. This could still come, but there are very few public signs of it now.

While predicting stock markets is a mug’s game, there are also some predictions that the JSE will continue to go higher. Portfolio manager at Ninety One John Biccard has claimed that this year might be just the beginning. In his view many South African stocks are mispriced and foreign investors looking for yield might find our market very attractive.

This is partly because our companies are growing in value, and partly because so many other markets are in such difficult positions. The UK, for example, has been labelled “uninvestible” by some people in that market.

While load shedding is still a technical possibility in 2026, the longer Eskom is able keep the lights on, the more this fear will recede.

Certainly, it seems that many companies will now invest without considering the possibility of load shedding as a factor (of course, they will continue with their massive investments in solar energy as a cheaper alternative to Eskom).

Transnet is also likely to continue with its improvements.

Now that International Container Terminal Services Incorporated has formal operating control of Pier Two at Durban Harbour it is likely to plough money into that facility very quickly.

It has operating control there for 25 years, the more quickly it upgrades facilities there, the more money it will make over the period.

Then there is what is always our major factor – the political situation.

Barring unexpected events, Ramaphosa is likely to remain in a position of power in the ANC. For the moment, those who might want to succeed him will probably have to display public patience.

Strangely, the one source of possible uncertainty might be the DA. If there is a leadership contest within that party next year the main factional dispute might be about remaining in the national coalition.

While this might lead to a big debate in the party, on balance it is unlikely that a majority of its members would support leaving the coalition. Especially if it seems the coalition is making progress.

Of course, all of this will be tested during the local elections. But it does appear that the parties in the coalition have found ways to manage the tensions between them, even if they are about policy.

On top of all of this is the economy.

The restructuring, greater role for the private sector and the successes of Operation Vulindlela in unlocking problems should, hopefully, start to build on each other through 2026.

This should mean proper economic growth, finally.

This will be limited at first, but even the start of it would give hope to many people in our country, and should mean that 2026 will be a better year for many than 2025.

If this does happen, unfortunately it is not certain that this momentum will continue into 2027.

For one thing, some of these processes (particularly the rise in the gold price and international dynamics that aid our economy) might run out of momentum towards the end of next year.

Then, the results of the local elections (likely to be in December) might just mark the beginning of the ANC’s succession battle. And that might overshadow almost all of 2027, despite the probable successes of 2026. DM