Ward poll beatdown — ANC loses seats to MK, PA and independent candidate as it bleeds support

Sarah Baartman, Eastern Cape

Ward 2 (Pellsrus Jeffreys Bay) Kouga: DA 47% (48%) PA 27% (5%*) ANC 25% (44%) COPE <1%

The setting: Ward 2 is south of Jeffreys Bay’s Main Beach, and south of the main town centre. Most of the voters in the ward are in Pellsrus. Pellsrus includes a section known as Tokyo Sexwale, an ANC stronghold. Further south from Pellsrus is Aston Bay, a happy DA vote-hunting playground. Jeffreys Bay is South Africa’s surfing capital. Other towns in the municipality include Humansdorp and Hankey.

The 2021 local government election: The DA edged the ANC by 139 votes. An independent candidate, Charlene Dicken, finished a distant third with 4% of the vote. She was ahead of both the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) and the PA.

The DA obtained 92% support in Aston Bay. The FF+ was second here with 6%. Voter turnout was 63% in this district, above the ward average.

The ANC beat the DA by just more than two votes to one in Pellsrus. The ANC won 60% of the vote, compared with the DA’s 29%. Dicken took 9% of the vote here. Turnout here was 61%. In the Pellsrus voting district which includes Tokyo Sexwale, the ANC won an impressive 73%. The DA was second with 21%. Dicken was supported by 2% of the voters. The ANC could not make up for the DA’s big win in Aston Bay and had to settle for second place. Turnout was 60% in this district.

The DA won 16 of the 30 council seats. The ANC won 11. The FF+, PA and EFF filled the remaining three.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA won 55% of the vote in the districts which make up Ward 2. The ANC was second with 26% and the PA third with 10%.

The DA’s strong showing was built on a dominant performance in Aston Bay with an 87% return. The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was runner-up with 7%. There was also a significant turnout differential, with 75% of Aston Bay’s registered voters showing up at the polls, while the ward average was 60%.

Pellsrus was the most competitive district. The DA came first with 43%, with the ANC on 26%, and the PA just behind on 23%. Turnout in Pellsrus was only 51%. The Madiba Bay Creche voting district includes Tokyo Sexwale and a chunk of Pellsrus. The ANC took 61% here, with the DA second on 21% and the PA third on 9%. Turnout in this district was 56%.

The by-election: The ward councillor defected to the PA. He was not chosen as the ward candidate for the PA. The party fielded the former independent candidate, Dicken.

The DA retained the seat and came very close to mirroring its 2021 showing. It beat the PA by 711 votes. The PA beat the ANC to second place and exhibited impressive growth in Ward 2. The ANC lost significant ground to the PA in Pellsrus.

While the turnout was lowest in Aston Bay, with 54% of registered voters showing up, the DA built up a 1,038-vote buffer over the PA with its 97% vote haul.

The PA was first in Pellsrus with an impressive 45% return. The DA grew slightly from 29% to 32%, while the ANC declined from 60% to 23%. The turnout was highest in Pellsrus, with 61% of registered voters showing up.

The ANC finished first in the voting district which includes a part of Pellsrus and Tokyo Sexwale with 49% but was well down from its 73% mark in 2021. The PA had a strong showing here with 32%. The DA was third with 19%, marginally down from 21% in 2021. The turnout in this district was just above the ward average.

The win for the DA means it retains its outright majority. This was a vital win for the party as it held off the PA after the former DA councillor defected to the PA. The PA will still be heartened by its strong growth in this ward and its ability to win the key Pellsrus district off the ANC.

Poll: 58% (61%)

Ward 2 (Louterwater Joubertina) Kou-Kamma: PA 44% (7%**) ANC 42% (49%**) DA 14% (35%**)

The setting: Ward 2 has an odd configuration. It includes a chunk of Louterwater and then by-passes the town of Krakeelrivier which sits between Louterwater and Joubertina, and then includes Joubertina. There are also two sparsely populated farm districts in this ward. Most of the voters are in Louterwater. It has more than triple the number of voters of the next most-vote-rich district, Joubertina.

Kou-Kamma is a beautiful part of the country which is protected by the Tsitsikamma mountains, sitting in the Langkloof. This area is known for its commercial fruit farming and honeybush tea.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the DA by 196 votes on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. The ANC built a buffer of 443 votes in Louterwater, with a 63% return, almost triple the DA’s 22%. The PA was a distant third with 9%. Turnout in Louterwater was 44%, just below the ward average.

The DA won 72% of the vote in Joubertina, with the FF+ and ANC tied for second on 12%. The DA bested the ANC by 201 votes here. Turnout was 56% in Joubertina, above the ward average. The DA also carried the Oudrif Landgoed rural voting district, but only one-third of the voters showed up in this district. The DA won 64% on the PR ballot, with the ANC second on 21% and the FF+ third on 7%, ahead of the PA on 4%. The DA’s margin here was 32 votes.

The ANC won the sparsely populated voting district of Brandhoek with 45%. The FF+ was second with 27% and the DA third with 24%. The PA finished fourth with 4%. The ANC was 11 votes ahead of the DA here. Turnout was 61% in this district.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC pipped the PA at the post with a 34% return. The PA was 30 votes behind on 32%. The DA was third on 26% and the FF+ made up most of the remaining numbers with 3%.

The ANC came first at the vote-rich Louterwater Multipurpose Centre with 45%. It was 20 votes ahead of the PA which took 43%. The DA would have been disappointed with its 7%. Turnout in Louterwater was 52%, below the ward average of 54%.

The DA won 70% in Joubertina, with the ANC and FF+ tying for second on 8%. The PA was fourth with 6%. Turnout at Joubertina was a high 65%. The DA also carried the sparsely populated rural voting district of Oudrif Landgoed, winning 55%. The PA was second in this district with 23% and ANC third with 11%. Only 38% of registered voters showed up. The ANC bested the DA and the FF+ in a photo finish in the scarce-vote district of Brandhoek farm. The ANC obtained 31% while both the DA and the FF+ received 29%.

The by-election: The ANC ward councillor defected to the PA. The councillor was not selected as the PA candidate for the by-election. In September the PA won a ward off the ANC. This meant the council was hung as the ANC had five of the 12 seats and needed an independent councillor to keep the mayoral chain. The DA is in the opposition with three seats, the PA grew to two and the FF+ has a single seat. A further loss for the ANC means the party would need to do a deal with the PA to retain control of Kou-Kamma.

The PA beat the ANC by 58 votes to win its second successive ward off the ANC in Kou-Kamma. The vote-rich district of Louterwater was a core part of the PA’s success. The party grew from 43% to 50%, while the ANC went from 45% to 47%. The PA built up a 56-vote buffer which was enough to cling on for a vital win. The turnout in Louterwater was a supercharged 70%. The PA also carried the Oudrif Landgoed voting district, besting the ANC by 18 votes.

The DA won in Joubertina with 81% support, up from 72% in 2021. The turnout here was only 45%, with this subdued figure not helping the DA’s cause. This was the only district where the ANC beat the PA, winning 18 more votes than the PA. The DA also won the Brandhoek farm voting district. While the party won half of the voting districts, its support fell sharply in this ward. It cratered from 22% in Louterwater to a paltry 3%.

The win for the PA means it is now the kingmaker of Kou-Kamma with its three seats. The ANC fell from five seats to four in the 12-seat council. The council is no longer hung since the ANC needs more than the independent’s support to hold onto power.

The PA can choose to work with the ANC, which would give it eight of the 12 seats, or with the DA, which also has three seats plus one of the FF+ or the independent to give it seven of the 12 seats. There is a strong likelihood that the PA will fill either the mayoral position or the speaker’s chair in Kou-Kamma.

Poll: 63% (46%)

Ward 10 (Fingo Tantji) Makana: ANC 50% (67%) DA 25% (1%) MCF 10% (23%) PA 6% EFF 5% (5%) SACP 3%

The setting: Ward 10 is east of the Makanda town centre and includes the two townships of Fingo and Tantji. Former judge president of the Supreme Court of Appeal Lex Mpati hails from Fingo. Makanda is the home of the National Arts Festival and Rhodes University.

The 2021 by-election: The ANC beat the local Makana Citizens Front (MCF) by 571 votes. They were the only two parties to get into double percentage figures.

The MCF hurt the ANC most at the Apostolic Faith Mission Church in Tantji where it won 31%. The ANC obtained 57%.

The ANC won an outright majority in Makana, winning 14 of the 27 seats. The MCF and DA were tied on five seats. The MCF is bigger in the council at present after the ANC won a seat off the DA soon after the 2021 local government elections.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won more than two-thirds of the vote here with a 68% return. The EFF was second with 16% while the DA mustered 5%.

The by-election: The ward councillor and chief whip died. The South African Communist Party (SACP) chanced its arm in an Eastern Cape by-election.

The ANC retained this seat but fell to the 50% mark. It won two of the three voting districts, losing one to the DA. The ANC’s support held up best at the Nathaniel Nyaluza High School in Tantji, going from 65% to 62%. The DA grew here from 1% to 21%, while the MCF plummeted from 26% to 2%.

At the BB Zondani Hall in Fingo, the ANC fell from 72% to 59%. The DA grew from 2% to 19% and the MCF fell from 19% to 7%. The DA upset the applecart at the Apostolic Faith Mission Church, taking the district off the ANC with 35% of the vote, after only registering 1% in 2021. The ANC fell from 57% to 34%. The MCF too fell here, from 31% to 16%. The PA came fourth with 8%, its best showing in the ward.

The SACP continued to struggle in by-elections, as it finished last in this poll.

While the DA finished second here, it is one of the party’s best results for 2025. It will hope to take the learnings from this ward and replicate them in many other parts of the country.

The ANC will know that if it loses ground in other wards with a similar composition to Ward 10, it will lose its outright majority in the next local government election in Makana. The local MCF too had a poor showing. It was the second-most-popular party in Makana after the 2021 election. It will lose the bulk of its five seats if it produces results like this in 2026.

Poll: 41% (43%)

Gauteng

Ward 90 (Hyde Park Parkmore) Johannesburg: DA 97% (70%) ANC 3% (11%)

The setting: Ward 90 includes the suburbs of Hyde Park, Parkmore, Craighall Park and Dunkeld. President Cyril Ramaphosa is a resident of Sandhurst which falls in Ward 90. Ward 90 sits between Rosebank and Sandton.

The 2021 local government election: While the DA won this ward comfortably, it was hurt by ActionSA which came second with 12% support. The ANC was just behind ActionSA.

The DA did best in Dunkeld with 73%. ActionSA received 13% in Hyde Park and the ANC’s best return was in Parkmore and Sandhurst where it obtained 13%.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first with 64% support. The ANC was the only other party to get into double percentage figures, with 10%. Three parties were tied on 6%, with Rise Mzansi finishing just ahead of ActionSA and the EFF.

The DA did best at Craighall Park with 70%. The ANC obtained 11% in Parkmore and Hyde Park. Rise Mzansi took 8% in Hyde Park. ActionSA received 6% in Hyde Park and Parkmore. The EFF found the most favour in Hyde Park with 7%.

The by-election: The ward councillor died from illness. While 12 parties contested the most recent Johannesburg by-election in Soweto, only the DA and the ANC stood here.

The DA dominated this by-election, winning a consistent 97% of the vote in each of the four voting districts. Often in by-elections with only two parties contesting there is a chance for both to show growth. This was not the case here as the DA ran up the numbers in an expected low-turnout poll. The DA will use this strong result as a springboard for Helen Zille’s mayoral campaign in the next local government election. The challenge for the party is that not all wards are built like Ward 90.

Poll: 18% (53%)

Ward 10 (Khutsong East) Merafong, West Rand: ANC 49% (76%) EFF 20% (9%) ActionSA 16% MK 10% DA 4% (6%) PAC 1%

The setting: Khutsong is the most-populous township in Carletonville. It is northwest of the town centre of Carletonville, close to the North West border. Ward 10 is the eastern part of Khutsong. Setswana is the most widely spoken language in Khutsong. Merafong is a centre for gold mining and forms part of the West Rand district.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC won more than three-quarters of the vote in this election. No other party got into double percentage figures.

The ANC lost its outright majority in Merafong, winning 27 of the 55 seats. It formed a coalition with the African Independent Congress (AIC), which, with its single seat, helped the party get over the line. The DA and EFF both won nine seats.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC stood tall here with 70% of the vote. The EFF was second with 12% while the MK was just ahead of the DA with a 6% return and the DA on 5%.

The ANC did best at the Itumuleng Educare voting district with a 72% haul. The EFF’s best result in the ward was 16% at Kamohelo Primary School district, while MK took 12% at Hlangabeza Primary School. The DA won 5% in all three districts.

The by-election: The ward councillor died after a long illness. The ANC went into the by-election with an outright majority in the municipality after winning an independent-held seat in 2022.

The ANC retained this seat with a reduced majority. It was able to finish first in all three voting districts but was only able to win in excess of 50% in one. It did best at Kamahelo Primary School where it managed 59%. Incidentally, the Kamahelo Primary School district had a turnout of 52%, which was well above the ward average.

The EFF more than doubled its percentage support in the ward to finish runner-up. Its best showing was also at Kamahelo Primary School where it obtained 22%.

ActionSA did not contest in Merafong in 2021. Its third-place finish in the ward is credible. It beat the EFF in two of the three voting districts and MK and DA in all three. ActionSA did best at Hlangabeza Primary School district (24%). The turnout in this district was only 29%, well below the ward average.

The ANC lost support here to the EFF, ActionSA and MK. It knows that it will fall well short of the 50% mark in Merafong in the next local government election if it does not deal with this decline in Khutsong in the coming months.

Poll: 43% (38%)

KwaZulu-Natal

Ward 17 (Mathonsi) Mandeni, iLembe: MK 61% ANC 30% (65%) IFP 9% (17%)

The setting: Mathonsi is north of the Tugela River Mouth and also north of Mandini and Sundumbili. It is northeast of the Tugela River.

Mandeni forms part of the iLembe district which includes KwaDukuza and Maphumulo.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC easily won Ward 17. It beat the IFP by 553 votes and came close to winning two-thirds of the vote in the ward.

The EFF came third with 10% and the AIC won a credible 6%.

The 2024 provincial election: MK routed the ANC here with 71% support. The ANC was second with 13% and the IFP third with 11%. The EFF only garnered 1%.

MK took 73% at the New African Apostolic Mission Church voting district. Turnout here was 69%, above the 61% ward average. While the New African Apostolic Mission Church district has fewer registered voters than the Isithebe Primary School, the 16% turnout differential advantage at the former resulted in more votes cast there.

The ANC’s best showing was at the sparsely populated Nongoma Ndlondlweni district, a 20% return. While there are very few voters registered here, 71% of the registered voters showed up. The IFP obtained 13% support at both Nongoma Ndlondlweni and the New African Apostolic Mission Church districts.

The by-election: The ward councillor was suspended by the ANC after it transpired that he brutally attacked a resident who allegedly committed theft against the councillor. The councillor is alleged to have beaten the man and dragged him around with his vehicle. The resident disappeared and his remains were found a few months later. His body had been burnt and buried. It was clear from the autopsy that he had head trauma.

It must be noted that MK won Ward 18 in Mandeni in May 2025 with 41% support, well down from the 70% it received in 2024 on the provincial ballot.

MK went two for two against the ANC in Mandeni, winning this ward by 674 votes. It won more than 50% of the vote in two of the three voting districts and swept all three. The party did the best at the New African Apostolic Mission Church voting district, with 68%.

The ANC was only competitive in one of the districts, the sparsely populated Nongoma Ndlondlweni. The ANC won 36% of the vote here against the MK’s 48%. The ANC did, however, manage to beat the IFP in all three districts. The IFP lost almost half its percentage support in the ward.

The win for the MK means the ANC loses its outright majority in Mandeni. It falls from 18 seats to 17 seats, and is one short of an outright majority in the 35-seat council. The party works with both the IFP and the DA in the GNU, and with the EFF on a local level across a number of municipalities. Its easiest option could be the African Independent Congress (AIC). Its one seat helps the ANC keep control of the mayoral chain. The AIC works with the ANC in Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay, among others.

The MK now has two seats on the Mandeni council. With results like this, it will have more after the next local government election.

Poll: 43% (38%)

Northern Cape

Ward 5 (Breipaal Douglas) Siyancuma, Pixley Ka Seme: Ind-Morolong 47% (15% ***) ANC 25% (56%) PA 19% DA 7% (22%) EFF 2% (4%)

The setting: Breipaal is northwest of the Douglas town centre. It is separated from Douglas by the Vaal River. It sits next to the R370 road which links Douglas with Schmidtsdrif.

The other main town in the municipality is Griekwastad. Siyancuma forms part of the Pixley Ka Seme district which includes the towns of De Aar and Colesberg.

The 2021 local government election: The ANC beat the DA by 492 votes on the ward ballot, winning both voting districts with relative ease. An independent candidate running with loose affiliation to other independent candidates in Siyacuma came third with 15%. The EFF pipped the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) by a single percentage point to finish fourth.

The 2024 provincial election: The ANC came first with 42%, carrying both districts. The DA was runner-up with 21%, finishing second in both districts. The provincial Northern Cape Communities Movement (NCCM) was third with 14%, as it finished ahead of the fourth-placed PA in both districts. The PA garnered 10%, beating the fifth-placed EFF in both districts. The EFF won 6%.

The by-election: The ward councillor defected to the PA. The ANC had to retain the ward to ensure its coalition held. The party went into the by-election with six of the 13 seats, and governs with the EFF which has a single seat. The DA has four. An independent who works with the DA has a single seat, as does the FF+.

Independent candidate Danfrid Morolong shocked the ANC by beating the latter’s candidate by 522 votes. Morolong won both voting districts, but it was the Breipaal Community Hall voting district where he really caused damage to the ANC, taking 54% of the vote. The ANC’s vote share went from 53% to 21%. The PA was third with 19%.

It was closer for the ANC at the Weslaan Secondary School, with Morolong beating the party by 21 votes, obtaining 35%. The ANC fell from 62% to 32%. The PA was third on 19%.

Voters ditched the DA in Breipaal, moving over to either Morolong or the PA.

The seat change is significant. The ANC and EFF coalition is likely to fall as the DA used to work with the independents and the FF+. The DA, independents and FF+ now have seven of the 13 seats, while the ANC fell from six to five. With the EFF it now only has six of the 13 seats. If the independents can agree on a mayoral candidate and continue to work with the DA and the FF+, we will see a new government emerge in Siyancuma without the ANC and the EFF.

Poll: 66% (48%)

Ward 7 (Middelpos) Hantam, Namakwa: ANC 42% (46%) DA 36% (33%) PA 12% FF+ 10% (21%)

The setting: An average of just under 47 valid votes were cast at each of the 12 voting stations in this vast ward in the Hantam Karoo in 2024. Sheep are plentiful in this part of the world. People are not. In 2024, the voting district with the highest number of registrations was in Middelpos itself – 287 people. Fewer than 1,200 were registered to vote across the whole ward.

Shakespearean actor Anthony Sher’s family had roots in Middelpos. His novel Middelpost is set in this tiny, isolated village. Middelpos sits on the R354 gravel road between Calvinia and Sutherland. It sits above the settlement of Kompromise. Middelpos links with the Tankwa Karoo National Park via the Gannaga Pass over the Roggeveld Mountains.

Hantam is centred on Calvinia and also includes the small towns of Loeriesfontein and Nieuwoudtville.

The 2024 provincial election: The DA won 51% of the vote in Ward 7, with the FF+ trailing on 23%. The ANC came third with 15% and the PA fourth with 4%. The DA won nine of the 12 voting districts, with the FF+ bagging two, including Onder-Downes, and the PA one.

The 2024 by-election: The ANC shocked the DA and the FF+ to win this ward.

The ANC more than doubled its percentage support compared with 2021, and more than tripled its support compared with May 2024. The swing to the ANC in Middelpos was sensational. The DA lost 18% from its May result in a sub-par showing. The FF+ lost significant ground compared with May 2024.

The margin of victory was 68 votes. The ANC won five of the 12 voting districts, with the FF+ picking up four and the DA three. The ANC won the most-populous district in the ward (Middelpos Community Hall) by 32 votes, and sparsely populated Brakfontein by 26. The margin of victory in these two districts was key in helping the ANC pull off a famous win.

This victory gave the ANC an outright majority in Hantam, with seven seats in the 13-seat chamber. This meant it was no longer dependent on the PA to govern in Hantam. The DA fell to three seats from four.

The by-election: The ward councillor, Gerrit Laban, a popular community figure and LGBTQIA activist, died tragically in mysterious circumstances in a house fire, in a possible hate crime.

Voters in Middelpos returned to the voting booth less than a year after electing Laban. The ANC retained this ward by 45 votes, ensuring it holds onto its outright majority in the council. Key to the victory was the relatively vote-rich Middelpos Community Hall district. The ANC won here by 34 votes, slightly up from the 32-vote margin in the 2024 by-election. The turnout at this district was a very impressive 76%, way higher than the ward average. In a ward with 12 voting stations, 37% of the total valid votes were cast at this one station.

The ANC won 60% at the Diepdrift Primary School and also at Beeswater Farm. The margin of victory at Diepdrift was 24 votes, also crucial to the ANC’s victory effort.

As per the 2024 by-election, the ANC won five of the 12 districts, the FF+ four and the DA three.

The DA won more than 50% in two districts. The challenge for the party was that a total of 26 and 27 votes were cast in the two districts. It did manage to beat the ANC in seven of the 12 districts, but fell short in the districts with high turnout and the relatively vote-rich districts.

Read more: By-elections hub

The FF+ won 80% of the vote at the Ramskop Shooting Range district. While it did not miss the target here, it will be disappointed that only 13% of registered voters showed up at the shooting range where the 8/10 votes did not help the party close the gap enough with the PA. The FF+ also won 72% of the vote at the Onder-Downes district, but again, only 18 votes were cast here.

The PA beat the FF+ to third place by 14 votes. The Middelpos Community Hall was where the PA won more than 70% of their total vote in the ward. It won 23% of the vote in this important district and built up a buffer of 54 votes between it and the FF+. While the PA did not win any districts, its performance alone in this one district more than cancelled out the FF+’s first place in four districts.

Poll: 57% (48%)

The next by-elections will be the penultimate round for 2025, on 10 December. The ANC will defend a ward in the township of Etwatwa in Ekurhuleni and will have a tricky assignment in Villiersdorp in the Theewaterskloof Municipality of the Western Cape.

* Due to the PA fielding Charlene Dicken as its candidate, we combined her percentage from 2021 with the PA’s 2021 percentage.

** The proportional representation (PR) ballot is used when it is a better mode of comparison for party support in the ward. In 2021, an independent candidate ran on the ward ballot. Due to that candidate not contesting again, we use the PR ballot.

*** Even though there is a different independent who ran in this by-election compared to the independent who ran in the local government election, we are using the ward vote as the mode of comparison because this independent is linked to the loose group of independents who ran in Siyancuma in 2021.