CPI quickens in October to 3.6%, still within the Reserve Bank’s new target range

South African consumer inflation picked up pace in October, quickening to 3.6% on an annual basis from 3.4% in September as housing and utility prices gathered steam, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday, 19 November 2025.

Consumer inflation remains inside the South African Reserve Bank’s (Sarb’s) new 2% to 4% target range, and the bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday at the last scheduled meeting this year of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

What this means
Inflation remains moderate and inside the Sarb’s new target range, giving it space to cut rates on Thursday. The cooling of food inflation is especially welcome. When people speak of a “cost-of-living crisis”, food is the main item on that menu of sorrow.

Food inflation maintained its downward trajectory, easing to 3.9% year-on-year from 4.4% in September. Vegetarians and vegans are forking out less for their calories: vegetables are in deflationary territory, their prices falling 4.4% on an annual basis in October.

But carnivores are getting less for their bucks. Meat prices remained on the boil, rising 11.4% — a consequence of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks among South African cattle herds.

“The challenge of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in South Africa is not over and continues to put pressure on farmers... Typically, during Foot-and-Mouth Disease outbreaks, the country is temporarily closed to some export markets, leading to a drop in consumer prices,” said Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber.

“But this year we saw the opposite. Initially, panic buying driven by retailers’ announcements, rather than a product shortage, was the main driver of meat prices, combined with buoyant consumer demand. We now see an easing of these upward price pressures.”

The overall outlook for inflation is promising. The new target — lowered from 3% to 6% to 3% with a 1 percentage point band on either side — will help to anchor inflation expectations, while recent gains by the rand will bring down import costs. DM