COP30 ministers battle to break deadlocks in four key areas

It was a tense first week at COP30, and the second week does not appear to be getting any easier after four major negotiating streams reached a critical point of disagreement.

UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell said at the opening of the high-level segment at COP30 on Monday: “We are all aware of the headwinds. But I also sense a deep awareness of what’s at stake, and the need to show climate cooperation standing firm in a fractured world.

“Clearly, there is a huge amount of work ahead for ministers and negotiators. I urge you to get to the hardest issues fast. When these issues get pushed deep into extra time, everybody loses. We absolutely cannot afford to waste time on tactical delays or stonewalling. The time for performative diplomacy has now passed.”

This final week is where the negotiations and political wrangling between nations take form, with the arrival of ministers who take over from the technical discussions in the first week.

The four missing agenda items 

Halfway through COP30, negotiations in four major streams have reached a critical point of disagreement, with parties battling to find consensus on matters relating to climate finance, unilateral trade measures, reporting on national climate plans and stronger emissions cuts aligned with 1.5°C.

Below are the details of these four items, from a note issued by the COP30 presidency and the draft text of a proposal on the items, known as the Mutirao Decision.

Implementation of Article 9, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement (this relates to finance and support for implementing the agreement)

This is about how rich countries provide financial support and help to developing countries to fight climate change. Discussions centre on exactly how much money is flowing and should flow. Options include confirming that the initial goal of $100-billion was achieved in 2022 and acknowledging the new financial goal.

Other options involve resolving to accelerate implementation, with developed countries taking the lead in delivering on $300-billion, and aiming towards the larger Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T ($1.3-trillion) for scaling up financing by 2035. A proposed action is to establish a three-year Belém work programme focused on implementation, including the goal of tripling adaptation finance.

Promoting international cooperation and addressing the concerns with climate change-related trade-restrictive unilateral measures

This refers to the intersection of climate policy and international trade. It deals with concerns that some countries might use climate-related measures to unfairly restrict trade or punish developing nations.

While countries should cooperate on establishing an open international economic system to fight climate change, climate measures (especially those taken by one country acting alone) should not be used as a means of arbitrary or unjustified discrimination or a hidden restriction on international trade.

Responding to the synthesis report on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and addressing the 1.5°C ambition and implementation gap

This is about facing the reality of climate science and speeding up action because current global efforts are still falling short of the critical 1.5°C limit set by the Paris Agreement. While new NDCs are successfully bending the emissions curve, the overall global trajectory is not yet in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal. The findings of the recently released NDC Synthesis Report confirm these gaps.

Climate urgency requires the accelerated implementation of NDCs and national adaptation plans to keep 1.5°C within reach. The question here is how the conference will formally respond to this confirmed gap.

Reporting and review related to Article 13 of the Paris Agreement: synthesis of biennial transparency reports

This focuses on the new system for checking what every country is doing to meet its climate commitments. Article 13 is the foundation of the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF).

The ETF is now fully operational, meaning countries are submitting their first Biennial Transparency Reports (BTRs), outlining their emissions, progress and support received. This mandatory reporting and subsequent technical review builds mutual trust and confidence among nations.

The key proposal is to have the BTR Synthesis Report considered annually under the CMA (the decision-making body of the Paris Agreement), together with the NDC Synthesis Report. This combined annual review would help explore the opportunities and barriers needed to achieve global efforts and close the 1.5°C gap.

The gap between climate commitments and actual implementation on these four issues is fundamentally a finance gap, and the conference’s credibility depends entirely on successfully addressing this funding deficit, according to attendees.

Core substantive conflicts ignored in favour of procedural speed?

Amid all of this, COP30 president André Aranha Corrêa do Lago proposed on Monday that delegates complete a significant part of their work by Tuesday evening, so that a plenary to gavel the Belém political package can take place by the middle of the week.

Simultaneously, four consultations on the above missing agenda items will be running to try to find consensus among parties.

While this measure created the appearance of progress by starting technical talks, major political disagreements persist and continue to hamper negotiations. Although delegates were urged all week to engage in direct, unprepared dialogue to reconcile ambition with implementation, developing nations are worried that this approach was weakening their central negotiating positions.

This sense of uncertainty was reinforced by minimal updates from subsequent stocktake plenaries, leading many to believe that the core substantive conflicts are being ignored in favour of procedural speed.

Gustavo Pinheiro, from the independent climate change think tank E3G, said: “Week two will show whether Brazil can turn goodwill into convergence of positions. While differences on parties’ positions emerged in week one, the leaders’ segment must now respond with convergence to deliver responses to the gaps in NDC ambition, finance, adaptation and emissions reductions.” DM

Kristin Engel is a freelance environmental journalist and a Danida Fellow participating in the Danida Fellowship Centre’s 2025 learning programme, “Reporting from the front line of the global climate crisis in an era of fake news”. The centre is a public self-governing institution under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.