Gaza peace – A journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step

…These are the days of miracle and wonder
This is the long distance call
The way the camera follows us in slo-mo
The way we look to us all…

The Boy in the Bubble – Paul Simon

Maybe it is a miracle, or maybe it has just been people acting like adults. But on 13 October, Hamas gave the remaining 20 Israeli hostages who were still alive following their kidnappings on 7 October 2023 their freedom, and they were being reunited with their friends and families. 

This has come even as about two thousand people who have been held in Israeli prisons – either as convicted prisoners or recent detainees – are now carrying out their own respective journeys to freedom – with some going on to Gaza by bus.

This is after they have been released in the West Bank, where they are now being reunited with their friends and families to rapturous happiness. The remains of Israeli hostages who perished in captivity are similarly being repatriated.

Not surprisingly, some Israelis – and others – have muttered that the balance of numbers was far too much in favour of the newly released Palestinians, and that, moreover, many of those released were guilty of acts of terror and other crimes. But no matter, there is no gainsaying that these events represent a door that has been opened to a potential future that is not filled with yet more death and destruction.

Sharm el Sheikh

The next extraordinary event was the major gathering at Sharm el Sheikh in Egypt that came after US President Donald Trump’s warm reception by the Israeli parliament, when he spoke there at the beginning of the day. In contrast with almost every other major international conference, this gathering at a hotel came together with astonishing speed.

Just a week ago, such a gathering was not even notionally on the cards. But now, leaders from Muslim states across the Middle East (minus Iran, of course, but including Pakistan and Indonesia) were joined by leaders from major European nations and beyond, as well as – inevitably – President Trump. 

Trump arrived in the region to take a victory lap for what he may well have rather too easily pronounced as the end of the conflict.

At this meeting, some of the participants, such as President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari, vied to heap the most extraordinary encomiums on Trump as that leader promised to nominate Trump for a so-far-elusive Nobel Peace Prize in 2026.

On CNN, Dan Senor, a former adviser to President George W Bush, ascribed Trump’s success to his decision to choose to embrace “the yes” rather than the negatives, when he and his team were confronted by any statements that said, “Yes, but what about X?”

Despite all the possible potholes or worse, as retired Israeli ambassador Arthur Lenk told the writer, “The hostages are home. Today, nothing else matters.”

For Israelis, the actual release of those 20 hostages generated a massive show of relief, even if the families of those who will have only an opportunity to bury the remains of loved ones will have their grief to cope with amid those national celebrations.

But caution should still be the watchword.

It is not out of the question that conflict could flare up again, either as spillovers from internecine fighting among rival clans and militias inside Gaza – the beginnings of which have already flared up – or between elements of a not fully disarmed Hamas militia and the Israeli Defense Forces, despite the terms of the ceasefire.

After all, so many ceasefires have withered away in that region over the past decades that the current moment demands a degree of wariness before the parades take place.

Read more: Middle East hope springs eternal — or more of the same old, same old?

Potential sticking points

As the leaders’ conference began to break up, a whole roster of elements from the original 20-point peace proposal put forward by Trump remain unsettled.

These include which nations will supply the specified stabilisation peacekeeping force, how it will be paid for, whether this will take place under the aegis of the UN, and what its exact terms of engagement will be in its assignment. Then there is the question of where the funds for a reconstruction of Gaza’s blasted landscape will come from and how they will be administered. 

There is also the question of how, precisely, the demilitarisation of Hamas will be carried out and to what extent. In addition, who, precisely, will participate in the transitional governing body, the “board of peace,” and how it will operate.

Added to this is the unresolved question of how a reformed/reconstructed/re-energised Palestinian Authority will participate in some way in the governance of Gaza from its current circumstances in the West Bank; and how any effective settlement in Gaza will begin to spill over into the West Bank (and how that could presage the nearly mythic two-state solution).

These are just a few of the more obvious potential sticking points. Undoubtedly, there will be others as events move forward.

What did not happen by Monday evening was a release of the specifics of that joint statement signed by the assembled global leaders.

As a result, until that document is made public, there may well be some pushing and shoving over what exactly was agreed to and who has committed to what specific actions. Still, as the apocryphal Chinese saying goes: a journey of a thousand miles begins with the first step. This is a real step, but only the first. DM