A voter in Kliptown, Soweto, during the local municipal elections on 3 August 2016. (Phoot: EPA / Cornell Tukiri) 
Gauteng
Ward 10 (Mamelodi East) Tshwane: ANC 52% (58% PR) EFF 23% (28% PR) MK 13% DA 11% (4% PR) Al Jama-ah 1% (<1%) Bolsheviks <1%
The setting: Ward 10 is in the eastern part of Mamelodi, east of the M10 road and just east of the Edendalspruit. Mamelodi, which is northeast of the Pretoria city centre, is where the legendary Pretoria soccer club, Mamelodi Sundowns, hails from. Almost half of the residents of Ward 10 are Sepedi speakers. The ward also includes Mahube Valley.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC beat the EFF by 1,221 votes on the proportional representation (PR) ballot. The ANC and the EFF were the only parties to get into double percentage figures on the PR ballot. ActionSA beat the DA to third place with 6% of the vote.
The ANC only won 47% of the ward vote. It was hurt by an independent candidate who came third with 11%. The EFF was second on 27%. ActionSA and the DA had a similar showing when comparing the two ballots.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won 59% on the provincial ballot in the districts making up Ward 10. The EFF was second with 24% and the DA third with 6%. The MK party came fourth with 4%, with ActionSA just behind on 3%. The Bolsheviks Party of South Africa and Al Jama-ah obtained four votes and one vote, respectively.
The by-election: Thabang Masemola, the young ward councillor, was gunned down outside a spaza shop. No arrests have been made. The ANC, EFF, DA and MK squared up for the contest, while ActionSA sat out the by-election.
The ANC won just over half of the vote to retain a key Tshwane ward. The party won seven of the eight voting districts in the by-election, beating the EFF by 1,232 votes. Both the ANC and the second-placed EFF fell short of their 2021 PR ballot percentage returns.
The EFF beat MK by 404 votes to retain its runner-up spot. MK beat the DA by 85 votes to finish third. MK more than tripled its percentage share of the vote compared with the 2024 provincial ballot, while the DA came close to doubling its percentage share compared with the 2024 provincial ballot.
The ANC did best in the two districts where the most votes were cast in the by-election, winning 70% at the Barak Education Foundation district and 70% again at the African Faith Mission in Stoffel Park. The ANC would be concerned that it won less than 50% of the vote in four of the eight districts, winning 42% in two of them and 32% in the other two.
The EFF was able to take one district off the ANC, with a 47% return at the Impendulo Primary School in Extension 22, Mamelodi East. The EFF finished second in five of the eight districts.
MK was able to finish third, with two strong showings across the ward. It obtained 31% at the Viva Village Centre in Mamelodi East Extension 22 and 27% at the Calvary Christ Mission Church in Extension 22. It also finished with double percentage figures in three other districts.
The DA too managed to notch double percentage figures in five of the eight districts. Its best showing was 26% at the Mountain of Glory Church in Stoffel Park.
The ANC will be satisfied that it did not fall below the 50% mark in this historic stronghold. The MK and the DA will be encouraged by their credible growth in a ward where both battled in previous elections.
Poll: 29% (34% PR)
Mpumalanga
Ward 26 (Ga-Nala Kriel) Emalahleni, Nkangala: DA 35% (29%) ANC 34% (49%) MK 17% EFF 14% (9%)
The setting: The town of Ga-Nala (formerly Kriel) is south of the most populous town in the district, Emalahleni. It is on the R547 regional road which links Emalahleni with Kinross. Record producer and DJ Oscar Mbo is from this town. Ga-Nala is known for its power station and vast coalfields.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC garnered just under 50% support in this ward. The DA came close to breaching the 30% mark, while the EFF was third with 9%, beating the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) which ended fourth on 7%.
While the ANC only won one of the four voting districts, it took the most populous district by a landslide. It received 80% at the Ebenezer Gospel Ministries district, which has more than half of the registered voters in the ward.
The DA won the other three districts but could make up the huge deficit from the Ebenezer Day Care district.
The 2024 provincial election: It was a true four-horse race in Ga-Nala. The DA came out on top with 26% support. It was down from 2021 but still held enough of its support to finish first in the districts that make up the ward. The ANC was just behind on 25%. The party’s sharp fall in Ga-Nala was mainly because of MK, which came third in the ward with 24%. While the EFF fell to fourth place, it also made strides, getting 16% of the vote. The FF+ fell off the pace with 2%.
The DA finished 60 votes ahead of the ANC, which finished 40 votes ahead of MK. The DA took the same three voting districts it won in 2021. It had a significant turnout differential in its strongholds compared with the ANC stronghold of Ebenezer Gospel Ministries district. The turnout was only 42% at Ebenezer Gospel Ministries, while it ranged from 61% to 73% in the three DA voting districts. In the final analysis, the ANC was hurt by MK and EFF here, but also by the DA being able to get its supporters out to the polls in greater relative proportion compared with the ANC.
The by-election: The ward councillor was arrested on charges of rape and housebreaking. He resigned from the council. The ANC was joined by the DA, MK and EFF on the ballot. The FF+ decided not to contest.
The DA took Ward 26 off the ANC by 30 votes. The ANC beat them by 20% four years ago. While the DA benefited from the FF+ not being on the ballot, it did not enjoy a turnout differential advantage, since the turnout in the ANC stronghold of Ebenezer Gospel Ministries district was higher in two of the three other districts.
The ANC won only 51% at Ebenezer Gospel Ministries, down from 80% in 2021. MK was second with a gallant 25%. The EFF and the DA grew 4% each here to finish on 13% and 11%, respectively.
The Roman Catholic Church in the southeast of the town, in the Aangewysd suburb, was key to the DA victory. Voter turnout was highest here, with 38% of registered voters showing up, one percentage point ahead of the turnout at Ebenezer Gospel Ministries. This was also the district where the DA was able to breach the 70% support mark. The ANC only managed to get 6% to finish behind the EFF and MK.
The Emalahleni council is now hung as the ANC falls to 34 seats in the 68-seat council. The DA is now tied with the EFF as the second-largest party in Emalahleni, as both parties will have 14 councillors in the next council meeting. The FF+ is the fourth-largest party with four seats. The ANC is likely to turn to the African Independent Congress (AIC) to help pass key legislation and the budget as its one vote will help give the ANC’s initiatives a majority in the council.
The DA will be delighted with this win. It has taken a seat off the ANC in a province where the ANC was for many years impenetrable. It will boost the confidence of their activists across the country in general and in Mpumalanga in particular.
MK fell short of its 2024 return where it hurt the ANC in most parts of Mpumalanga. It will hope to do better in future Mpumalanga by-elections.
Poll: 35% (44%)
Eastern Cape
Ward 5 (Mbonisweni Mcwangele) Elundini, Joe Gqabi: ANC 91% (81%) ATM 7% (1%) AUC 2%
The setting: Ward 5 covers a vast area in the relatively rural Elundini Municipality. The ward is south of Nqanqarhu (formerly Maclear), next to the R396 regional which links Tsolo with Nqanqarhu. The ward has 13 voting districts spread over a wide area.
Elundini also includes the small towns of Ugie and Tloekeng (formerly Mount Fletcher). It is the home municipality of trade unionist Oscar Mpetha and is a gateway to the Eastern Cape Drakensberg mountains. It forms part of the Joe Gqabi district in the northeastern part of the Eastern Cape. Other towns in the district include Lady Grey, Barkly East and Burgersdorp.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC won more than 80% of the vote for an easy win. The United Democratic Movement (UDM) was the only other party to get into double percentage figures with a showing of 11%. The EFF was third with 5%.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC came first with 81%. No other party got into double percentage figures, as the UDM edged the EFF by one percentage point with a 7% return. The ATM and MK struggled, with both scraping to the 1% mark.
The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. The ANC was joined on the ballot by ATM and a new Mthatha-based party, the African Unemployed Congress (AUC). The UDM and EFF decided to not contest here.
The ANC coasted to victory here with more than 90% of the vote. It won more than 90% of the vote in eight of the 13 districts. It did best at the Lower Ngxaza Primary School district where it won 100% of the valid votes in the ward. The Ngxaza Secondary School was not far behind – here the ANC won 99%.
Read more: By-elections hub
The ATM came second, getting into double percentages in three of the 13 districts, with a consistent 19% in the three districts where it surpassed the 10% mark.
The ANC showed yet again that in the rural Eastern Cape, in districts like Joe Gqabi, its support remains resolute and dominance unchallenged.
Poll: 37% (46%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 15 October when the ANC will defend all six seats up for grabs, including one in Soweto, two in the Western Cape (Swellendam and Bonnievale), a seat in the Ramotshere Moiloa Municipality in North West and two super-safe seats, in the Dr AB Xuma Municipality in the Eastern Cape and in Musina, Limpopo. DM
The proportional representation (PR) ballot result from the previous election is used when it is a better indicator of support for a party in the ward.