Loaded for Bear: Malawi and the curse of the perpetual hunger crisis

Malawi, once again, faces a hunger crisis. Or put another way, its seemingly perpetual hunger crisis is once again taking a turn for the worse. 

According to a report published this week by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net), southern Malawi faces an “atypically early start to the lean season”. 

The “lean season” refers to the seasonal summer period when supplies of the staple maize harvested at the end of the previous growing season dwindle to low levels before the current crop can be reaped. 

“The lean season is expected to begin in October, nearly two months earlier than is typical,” the report says. 

On a map accompanying the report, southern Malawi is coloured orange – a designation that reflects the “crisis” stage of food insecurity. Red would signal an emergency while black depicts the worst-case scenario: famine. 

As a journalist, I have reported from Malawi several times in the past, and twice, in 2005 and 2016, I was sent there to cover – you guessed it – hunger crises. 

And the current one is unfolding against the backdrop of mounting donor fatigue, with the genocidal famine in Gaza the focus of global attention at a time when US aid has been slashed to the bone. 

Fews Net itself – which is funded by the US government and plays a crucial humanitarian role in monitoring food insecurity – was suspended for months earlier this year and then raised from the dead. 

Perpetual hunger is Malawi’s curse, and it ultimately has two primary causes which are being exacerbated by climate change. 

The first is the dependence of its overwhelmingly rural population on rain-fed, unmechanised subsistence farming. The second is its dependency on white maize as the caloric household staple that literally feeds the nation. 

The juxtaposition with South African agriculture is stark, and serves as a warning to populist parties such as the EFF and MK about the potential consequences of embarking on Zimbabwe-style land seizures. 

Both Malawi and South Africa were hit hard in 2024 by a blazing El Niño, the global weather pattern that usually brings drought to this region. 

But the subsequent La Niña, while classified as weak, unleashed decent rains across much of the region and South Africa’s maize harvest this year is estimated to have risen 23%. 

Southern Malawi may not have received as much rain as South Africa’s maize belt, but the big difference lies in the sophistication of our domestic commercial farming sector, which is extremely hi-tech and capital-intensive. 

Game changers over the past decade have included the revolution of “precision farming”, which uses GPS technology to precisely apply inputs for optimal yields. 

A Malawian subsistence farmer relying on the rain and mostly using hand tools on a small plot can hardly expect the same yields, even when the weather cooperates. 

According to Statista, Malawi’s population is 82% rural, and the vast majority of its rural residents are engaged in small-scale, subsistence farming.

And its population has doubled in the past 25 years, a state of affairs driven in part by the fact that many hands are needed in a household to work the fields.

Malawi population growth 1950 to 2025

Development economists would generally refer to this situation as a classic “poverty trap” and this columnist, for one, has no ready answers to address it. 

The World Bank and the like for decades have implemented “poverty reduction” programmes in Malawi and the results transparently have amounted to virtually nothing. 

In 2016, I interviewed the Malawian finance minister at the time, Goodall Gondwe, and I asked him if the government had an industrial policy. His response, in bemused tones, was disarmingly honest. 

“It will take time to industrialise. But don’t forget this country cannot even make a needle. So to base your policy on that probably is asking too much,” he said. 

Then there is the dangerous dependence on white maize, to which I have drawn attention before. 

Read more: Loaded for Bear - Southern Africa has a dangerous dependence on white maize 

In times of scarcity for the entire southern African region, the only options are to import the stuff from Mexico or the US. Unlike, say, the potato, white maize is hardly a ubiquitous crop. 

Malawi’s perpetual hunger crisis has obvious implications for South Africa, notably illegal immigration which in turn provides the kindling for the flames of xenophobia that periodically erupt here in a vicious and never-ending cycle. 

For now, at least, there is the promise of La Niña’s imminent return. 

Read more: La Niña prospects grow, heralding wet weather along with increased risk of flooding

“Seasonal rainfall forecasts… suggest above-average rainfall in southern Malawi from October 2025 to March 2026 is likely. The anticipated rainfall is expected to support a timely start to the 2025/26 agricultural season and typical agricultural labour demand,” the Fews Net report states. 

But this potential green shoot does not mean that the hunger warning signals for Malawi are about to fade into the more benign colours of yellow (stressed) or white (minimal). The crimson shade of emergency looms large. 

“Labour opportunities are likely to remain below average due to reduced hiring capacity among better-off households following poor 2025 harvests and ongoing weak macroeconomic conditions," Fews Net says.

“In central Malawi, localised areas are expected to receive average to below-average rainfall between January and March 2026. Similarly, parts of the northern and central regions are expected to receive below-average rainfall during this period, potentially affecting crop development and yields in surplus-producing areas that typically supply southern Malawi during the lean season.”

And this dire forecast is in anticipation of a La Niña. Imagine what will transpire when the next El Niño appears on the scene, which is inevitable. 

Malawi’s population will be bigger when the next El Niño strikes, and it will still be reliant on subsistence farming and white maize. And the economy will still not be producing needles. 

Climate change caused by the global economy’s dependence on fossil fuel use has been sharpening the fangs of El Niño, and when it bites this region next, parts of Malawi’s map could be coloured with the dark shade of famine. DM