It’s amazing how quickly a smooth-looking edifice can suddenly develop cracks. That’s exactly what happened to the Springboks’ unblemished aura in a crazy 23-minute spell at Ellis Park last week. That’s all it took.
Australia scored four tries between the 43rd and 66th minutes to turn a 17-point deficit into an 11-point lead, which changed perceptions of both teams and piled a heap of pressure on Rassie Erasmus and his team.
The Springboks are now backed into a corner. Any chance of retaining the Rugby Championship title demands victory at the DHL Stadium in Cape Town this weekend for the return clash.
And preferably a win with a bonus point. But a win first and foremost is the goal.
And it will have to be achieved despite a lengthy casualty list. At least most of the cast of players understand pressure and have been in the trenches before.
Pieter-Steph du Toit, Siya Kolisi and Kurt-Lee Arendse, who were all excellent last week and who would all have started this week, are out.
That’s problematic for Erasmus, especially with so many other loose forwards out through injury (Cameron Hanekom and Elrigh Louw) and suspension (Jasper Wiese).
While the return of inside centre Damian de Allende and wing Cheslin Kolbe adds experience and class to the back division, the loose trio has a very much “square peg, round hole” feel to it.
Jean-Luc du Preez, a hard and abrasive No 8 not renowned for his breakdown work, makes his first Test start in seven years. Franco Mostert will pack down a blindside flank.
Mostert, usually a lock, will give everything for every second he’s on the field, but he is out of position and with the breakdown battle expected to be fierce. It’s a gamble.
Openside Marco van Staden and hooker Malcolm Marx, and De Allende among the backs, will have a lot of work to do at the breakdown.
Erasmus has reverted to a 6-2 split on the bench, stacking some experience on the wood with locks Lood de Jager and Eben Etzebeth and flank Kwagga Smith providing 256 caps between them.
General Pollard
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With rain and high winds expected throughout the day in Cape Town, even if not consistently during the match, conditions will be tricky.
Last week the Boks kicked fewer times (18) than in any match this year – the previous lowest was 26 kicks against Italy – and ran more. It worked well until they ran themselves off their feet and Australia pounced.
Don’t expect to see much width to the Boks’ play in the return clash – at least not before they’ve dented the Aussie defensive line through more direct play.
Expect more kicking from halfbacks Handrè Pollard and Grant Williams too. Williams’ box-kicking was deadly accurate in the opening 30 minutes last week before the Boks moved away from that tactic. It’s not clear whether it was under instruction or not, but the Boks won’t make the same mistake twice.
Erasmus might have been forced to tweak weekend’s tactics though, with Willie le Roux pulling out with a “niggle”. Aphelele Fassi has been drafted into the starting lineup.
The Boks will miss Le Roux’s educated left foot and ability to come into first receiver during phase play. Fassi brings more pace and calm under the high ball, but he doesn’t yet have a varied and deadly kicking game.
While losing the 100-cap veteran is a blow, Le Roux’s selection was also a risk as he doesn’t have the pace he once had. It’s swings and roundabouts.
Pollard is key. The Boks forwards should be able to provide comfortable possession and the great flyhalf has the temperament and experience to choose his options wisely.
If an attack is on, the Boks will attack because they’re not going to shelve their developing ambition with ball in hand just because of one setback last week.
It’s easy to forget, in the aftermath of the Ellis Park shock, how well they played early on. Pollard will just bring a steadier head with Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu ready to sprinkle some magic after halftime.
“We have progressed [our attack] over the last couple of years,” De Allende said this week.
“The first 20 minutes of last weekend’s Test were incredible, and it was probably some of the best rugby we have ever played together, so we know what went wrong and how we can fix it.
“The attacking opportunities will still be there but we must know when to take them and control the game a lot better.”
In a nutshell, that’s what the Boks require this week – better game management.
Confident Wallabies
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Australia have also had to juggle slightly with Harry Wilson, the brilliant No 8 and skipper, out with a leg injury.
Wing Dylan Pietsch, who scored the Wallabies’ first try last week, has a cracked jaw courtesy of Kolisi’ shoulder last week and is replaced by Corey Toole on the left wing.
Toole is from the Australian sevens programme and considered the fastest man in Aussie rugby. He didn’t give an official 100m time when quizzed but says he has been timed at “10.2 per second” at top speed. Let’s just say he’s rapid. He scored 11 tries in Super Rugby this year.
While losing Wilson is a huge blow for the Wallabies, they are lucky to have the excellent Rob Valetini coming into the starting lineup after struggles with a calf muscle injury this year.
Valetini is a hard-running, elusive No 8 who relishes the physical battle as well. He has twice been the Australia Rugby Player of the Year. He was in the stands at Ellis Park last week and is fired up for a battle with the Boks in Cape Town.
“South Africa will commit to the way they play, and we’ll commit to the way we’re trying to play,” Wallaby coach Joe Schmidt said.
“It doesn’t always work the way we’d like it to. I felt that there were times that we engineered our own line breaks and some pretty positive plays.
“We didn’t have long periods of defence, we tended to concede ground pretty quickly, especially in that first 20 minutes and would have liked the defence to go on a bit longer. But they had already got over the line and scored. That didn’t work too well.
“And then we did profit from a few errors from the South Africans, and we’re a little bit lucky that those errors occurred, and I’m sure that’s something that Rassie will have solved in the week.” DM
Teams:
South Africa: 15 Aphelele Fassi, 14 Canan Moodie, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Handrè Pollard, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jean-Luc du Preez, 7 Franco Mostert, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 RG Snyman,3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche.
Replacements: 16 Marnus van der Merwe, 17 Boan Venter, 18 Wilco Louw, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Lood de Jager, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu
Australia: 15 Tom Wright, 14 Max Jorgensen, 13 Joseph-Akuso Suaalii, 12 Len Iketau, 11 Corey Toole, 10 James O’Connor, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 Tom Robertson
Replacements: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Nick Champion de Crespigny, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tane Edmed, 23 Andrew Kellaway
Venue: DHL Stadium, Cape Town
Kick-off: 17.10pm (SuperSport)
Referee: James Doleman (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ben O’Keeffe (New Zealand), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Richard Kelly (New Zealand)
Flyhalf Handrè Pollard is expected to provide better game management for the Boks in the return clash against Australia in Cape Town. (Photo: Anton Geyser / Gallo Images) 