After the Bell: Mini memories, mega changes ahead for SA’s car industry

I am sure you remember the car you learnt to drive in. For me, it was a fire engine-red go-kart with a gear lever. 

It wasn’t called that, obviously; it was what used to be called a Mini, before that whole slightly odd relaunch about 25 years ago.

The joy of the old-type Mini was that it really was small. Small as in tiny. As in, so small that the only thing that comes close is those tiny little yellow Bajaj Qutes.

But they, as you have probably seen at some point on your trips today, are usually confined to a driver and a passenger.

Back in the Eighties, my mom was allowed to drive her red Mini around with all three of her boys in the back. And often a friend (sometimes two) on the front seat. 

Strangely, this make of car, the Mini, has a hold on my children, too. I don’t think they’ve ever actually been in one. But they spent primary school playing “Slap Mini-Cooper”.

I could explain the rules, but if I tell you that it led to the most immense eruptions in the back seat between my two children, I think you could probably work out the aim of the game yourself.

The Mini I really enjoy looking out for is electric. I can’t always tell at first, but I can usually spot it.

While you don’t get two slaps for seeing it, it does make me think of how cars are changing so quickly at the moment.

From the go-kart I grew up in, to something so different.

Right now, our car industry is in the throes of perhaps the biggest set of changes yet. 

I know that’s a big statement, but I’m not kidding.

It’s not only that we are moving from petrol and diesel to hybrid and electric. Which is a huge change in itself.

It’s that the price of cars is coming down dramatically, while our industry is having to look for new markets.

On Wednesday, Trade and Industry Minister Parks Tau spoke at an important automotive conference in Nelson Mandela Bay, the site of so many factories that are being hit by Trump’s tariffs.

He says the government wants to move away from the current subsidy system, where carmakers can import components duty-free and then assemble cars here, to subsidising the local manufacture of those components.

He claims a 5% increase in local content would result in R30-billion in local procurement. His major point is that this would dwarf the R4-billion we are losing in exports to the US.

I have no idea if he is right on the maths. I do think that he is on to something in terms of having more cars made here.

But it is going to be very tough because of a variety of factors out of our control.

For many years, it always seemed to me that South Africa’s biggest-selling car was also its cheapest. From the CitiGolf to the Uno to the Tazz and the Polo – if it was cheap, it sold. How many times today have you been stuck behind a Suzuki Swift?

We are seeing that again with the wave of cars being imported from China. They’re cheap, so they sell.

The Indian company Tata confirmed on The Money Show this week that it will compete hard on price when it starts importing models here again in the next few weeks.

I want Tau to be right, and I want his programmes to work.

But – and this is a huge BUT – it is becoming impossible to compete with China in many ways.

Last year, VW publicly floated the idea of closing factories in Germany for the first time in its history (and it’s a long history – the VW Beetle was designed during the Nazi era). Its boss said it just could not compete on cost while building cars in Germany.

Meanwhile, China is in the middle of the most unbelievable electric vehicle price war.

As The Economist noticed several months ago, BYD cut the price of its Seagull model to just $7,700. 

I’ll save you the Google conversion. That’s just R135,251 (and 73 cents). 

If there were an electric car on sale right now that you knew was reliable for that price, even if it was a bit of a go-kart, how many would you buy?

That’s right.

All of them.

Especially when they are so much cheaper to run than your current petrol version.

It would be a massive change to our industry; it would be flooded with products.

And it would probably improve the lives of millions of people. They would suddenly be able to afford their own car. 

But no one would buy South African. It would probably be the end of our car industry (and probably bring back load shedding)

I’m sure the government will hold back this flood of electric cars for as long as it can.

But at some point, it may be impossible.

I so enjoyed learning to drive. So many other people deserve that right, too. 

Even if their car doesn’t come with a gear lever. DM