US President Donald Trump, whose 30% trade tariff on South Africa is likely to lead to at least 30,000 job losses. (Photo: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images) 
Unlike President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has been widely criticised for his slow response to economic crises, the private sector has already moved to propose interventions to blunt the blow of the US tariffs.
Busi Mavuso, chief executive of Business Leadership South Africa, points out that although businesses can eventually adapt, urgent temporary support is essential.
“The recently announced Export Support Desk is a welcome first step, but swift implementation of broader measures is critical,” she said.
Mavuso has recommended the urgent establishment of a Trade Crisis Committee, modelled on the National Electricity Crisis Committee, to coordinate the Treasury, government departments and business in opening new markets, unlocking funding support and protecting jobs.
Read more: Department of Trade, Industry and Competition says 30,000 jobs at risk from Trump tariffs
While business is clearly mobilising, the government’s efforts remain fragmented. The Export Support Desk exists, and sector-specific support from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) and Department of Employment and Labour is being mooted. But as Old Mutual Wealth’s Izak Odendaal warns, these are “triage measures, not strategic pivots”.
Workers are reporting their concerns and fears to their unions. As Cosatu’s Matthew Parks told Daily Maverick, the damage is much larger than the loss of a single job.
“The damage might look small at first, but it has a massive knock-on effect. If a company closes, you lose jobs, then the town loses its economy, schools, clinics, police stations. Everything collapses. It devastates entire communities.”
At least 30,000 jobs are at risk due to the tariff increases. According to the South African Federation of Trade Unions, up to 70,000 jobs could be lost. Further losses are possible as the knock-on effects on supply chains develop.
Impact by numbers
Economist Annabel Bishop of Investec said the tariff impact was already stark. According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa), South African automotive exports to the US dropped by 82.2% year-on-year in unit terms in the first half of 2025.
South African Revenue Service (SARS) data for the same period, Bishop noted, showed that “vehicles and accessories (including parts) is down 45%, still the largest fall in any category”.
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/04-000071471.jpg "Workers assemble a vehicle at the Mercedes-Benz manufacturing plant in East London, Eastern Cape, which employs about 3,000 people. The automotive industry has been deeply affected by the US trade tariffs. (Photo: Eric Miller)")
While these drops include some lagging effects from early uncertainty, Bishop warned that “the full, direct impact from tariffs will become more apparent from 2026” due to contract lags. But she added that beyond tariffs, “The biggest hindrance to export growth remains the insufficient performance from Transnet to meet export freight demand.”
Read more: Uncertainty and fear haunt automotive industry in wake of tariff increases
Resilience amid disruption
Despite the economic disruption, some industries remain surprisingly robust. The citrus industry, for example, reported record export values of R7.1-billion in the first half of 2025, according to Citrus Growers Association data.
Johannesburg Stock Exchange CEO Leila Fourie told Daily Maverick that while citrus, beef, soy and automotive exports were most exposed, the overall GDP impact was currently estimated at around 0.2%.
“There are more targeted impacts in agri markets such as citrus, beef and soy, and the automotive sector,” said Fourie, who added that the imposition of the US tariffs had accelerated South Africa’s efforts to diversify trade.
“We are seeing re-engagement with China, the EU, South America and South Asia.”
The Citrus Growers Association agreed that while the current state of affairs was challenging, it could be reversed.
“This is not the end,” stated CEO Dr Boitshoko Ntshabele in a statement to Daily Maverick, “but the end of the beginning.
“Not retaining and expanding markets across the board — including the US, China and others — will be a massive missed opportunity for job creation by the South African government.”
Read more: SA citrus eyes record export of 180m cartons, but Trump tariffs may prune that estimate
Strategy missing in action
Some industry groups have voiced concern over a lack of consultation. The Citrus Growers Association has warned that shipments already en route to the United States may now be subject to punitive tariffs. Naamsa, meanwhile, has flagged long-term risks to local automotive production should the duties persist.
Read more: Ramaphosa announces urgent measures to shield South African firms from Trump’s tariff fallout
Parks said that government mitigation measures may not be implemented quickly enough to prevent fallout. He cited challenges with measures implemented during the Covid-19 pandemic as an example.
“It’s like putting a plaster on a bullet wound. The government talks about exemptions, but those structures don’t exist. During Covid, it took months to get support to workers. This will be no different.”
The bigger challenge may be Pretoria’s diplomatic footing.
“South Africa doesn’t export anything to the US that they can’t get elsewhere,” said Odendaal. “So our best bet is to be pragmatic — use our foreign policy to unlock trade, not constrain it.”
Parks said that negotiations with the US were one-sided and that Trump’s administration had deviated from diplomatic protocol.
“The Trump era has rewritten the rulebook. Old diplomatic tools don’t work. If we want to fix this, it needs to go straight to the presidential level.” DM
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that the Citrus Growers Association was not consulted prior to the US tariffs. While the CGA raised concerns about the impact, it did not claim exclusion from consultations. The article has been updated accordingly. Daily Maverick apologises for the error.