Uncertainty has led investors to look for areas that are perceived as safe and gold is one of those assets, the World Gold Council reports. (Photo: Yan Cong/Bloomberg via Getty Images) 
Uncertainty is literally golden. As geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty mount at a bewildering pace in the Trumpocene, gold is setting new records across the board on the supply, demand and price fronts.
Total supply rose 3% year on year in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025. Initial estimates suggest a record Q2 production of 909 tonnes, according to the latest quarterly Global Demand Trends report of the London-based World Gold Council (WGC).
This trend highlights the fact that gold producers are blasting and digging at a furious pace to catch the tsunami of profits flowing to their bottom line from record prices.
“The average quarterly price was a record $3,280.35 an ounce, up by 40% year on year and 15% quarter on quarter,” the report says. The all-time record price of $3,500 an ounce was scaled in April and it has remained north of $3,000 for most of this year.
For the first six months of 2025, value from demand rocketed to a record of almost $250-billion.
A range of factors explain this new gold rush. One of the initial sparks in recent years has been soaring demand from emerging market central banks looking to diversify their asset base away from the dollar.
“Central banks remained a key pillar of global demand, adding 166 tonnes to global official gold reserves. Although the pace of buying moderated, the outlook for central bank demand remains healthy,” the report says.
Read more: After the Bell: Why does gold still glister so much?
Status secured
/file/dailymaverick/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/GettyImages-2176501182.jpg "The average Q2 price for gold was a record $3,280.35 an ounce, up by 40% year on year and 15% quarter on quarter, according to the World Gold Council. (Photo: Clark Hodgin / Bloomberg via Getty Images)")
Economic uncertainty and geopolitical ructions have combined this year to keep the rally red hot. From Gaza and Ukraine to the White House, 2025 has been a wild ride that has launched gold’s status as a “safe haven asset” into orbit.
When the going gets rough, investors go for gold.
It’s no coincidence that the metal reached its record high in April when US President Donald Trump initially unveiled his tariff “plan”, which included high tariffs for an island only inhabited by penguins.
“Uncertainty really ramped up in Q2 with US trade policy and that has been ongoing. Uncertainty has been an undercurrent through all of this that is causing ripples across the market,” Krishan Gopaul, a senior analyst at the WGC, told Daily Maverick.
“And that’s been a key factor why gold has performed so well – that uncertainty has led investors to look for areas that are perceived as safe and gold is one of those assets.”
Underscoring this point has been demand from the wealthy.
“Anecdotal reports suggest that institutional investment remained healthy, with continued interest from global high-net-worth investors,” the WGC report says.
Over-the-counter investment and stock changes added a further 170 tonnes to demand in Q2.
A price too high
The world’s one percenters might be able to afford to invest in gold in a big way, but for consumers as opposed to investors, the price is wilting demand. “Price has factored heavily in weak jewellery tonnage demand ... Volumes were very muted, almost retreating back to 2020 pandemic levels,” the report notes. This trend is high on the radar of the platinum industry, which has experienced a surge in demand from the jewellery sector as buyers pivot to platinum from far more expensive gold. It has underpinned a rise of more than 50% in the price of platinum so far this year.
Read more: Recycling woes, Chinese jewellery platinum pivot hold hope for PGM prices
But the WGC report does not see platinum posing that much of a challenge on the jewellery front.
“Jewellery retailers in China are likely to face an equally glum H2 [second half of the year]. One silver lining perhaps is that platinum is unlikely to offer much of a challenge, given the sensitivity to its strong price rise,” it says.
For the South African mining industry and the wider economy, it is clearly no bad thing that the price of both gold and platinum have been on the boil in 2025.
One thing that is certain is that uncertainty will remain a theme for the rest of the year. When it comes to US tariffs, one market view is that Trump always chickens out – the Taco trade – but he is going to keep stirring the pot against the backdrop of raging conflicts and rising global tensions.
Read more: Chaos and uncertainty — this is no way to run a global trading system
That provides the current gold bull run with plenty of red rags to charge at. DM
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.
