Escalating Kenyan unrest marks tense midpoint on road to 2027 elections

For three consecutive weeks in June and July 2025, Kenya witnessed some of its most sustained and widespread protests in recent memory.

On key protest days — particularly on Wednesday 25 June and Monday 7 July — Kenyans took to the streets across the country to once again voice their grievances against President William Ruto, a year after the infamous June/July 2024 unrest that culminated in the storming of Parliament.

But this year’s unrest has been notably more intense. Protests have extended beyond traditional hotspots, lasted longer and, worryingly, have been marked by a higher degree of violence.

As Kenya reaches the halfway point to its 2027 general elections, this shift signals a concerning deterioration in both its political climate and security landscape.

Why Kenyans are taking to the streets

Several issues are driving the current wave of discontent. Foremost among them are political and socioeconomic grievances, particularly perceived poor governance and heavy-handedness by the current administration, coupled with rising unemployment and living costs.

Unlike the June 2024 unrest, which was primarily triggered by the Finance Bill that introduced steep taxes and culminated in the breach of Parliament on the very day the bill was passed, this year’s unrest appears to be driven by persistent political grievances and violations of human rights.

Public concern over police conduct has continued to grow. One of the key triggers in the latest series of unrest was the death of blogger Albert Ojwang in police custody, followed by the fatal shooting of unarmed civilians, including a street vendor and a 12-year-old girl.

Protesters argue that these incidents reflect a broader pattern of impunity among Kenya’s security forces — and human rights organisations appear to agree. Organisations like Human Rights Watch have recently called for authorities to be held accountable for such violence. 

What distinguishes these protests from past movements is their youth-led, decentralised nature. Organised primarily through social media, with hashtags like #RutoMustGo gaining traction, the protests lack formal leadership. While this helps with mobilisation, it presents a challenge to predicting when, where and how they might occur.

A surge in unrest

What we do know is that the level of protest activity is rising. Kenya has already recorded more protest activity in the first half of 2025 than during the same period in previous years, including during the 2022 election cycle.

Not only are protests occurring more often, they are more widespread, spanning regions far beyond the usual centres of political activism like Nairobi, Kisumu or Mombasa.

Historically volatile regions such as Kisumu, Homa Bay, Siaya, Migori (in Nyanza) and parts of Mombasa are now being overshadowed by rising tensions in central Kenyan counties — including Kiambu, Murang’a, Embu, Meru, Nyandarua and Laikipia. Central Kenya, which has remained largely peaceful over the past three electoral cycles, is now experiencing increasing volatility. 

At the same time, the protests have also been sustained, now entering their third week with persistent rumours and indeed fears of further activity.

Perhaps most concerning is the rise in violence. Official figures are still emerging, but reports indicate that 52 people have been killed and 1,500 arrested during confrontations with the police in recent weeks.

Moreover, some protests have turned destructive, with instances of looting, arson and even sexual violence, including rape, reported during the chaos. Such incidents not only harm communities but also risk undermining the legitimate grievances of the broader movement.

Kenyan institutions are also feeling the weight of these protests, with the justice system under growing scrutiny over how it will handle so many cases. Most suspects face serious charges, including terrorism, homicide, robbery with violence, sexual assault, arson, malicious damage to property and attacks on strategic infrastructure; yet, the majority of those arrested — mostly youth aged 18 to 35 — do not have prior criminal records.

This has sparked national concern, especially among human rights groups and legal experts who view the charges as potentially disproportionate and politically driven. Perceptions that the government is using the judiciary to suppress dissent and intimidate the youth could trigger further protests.

Countdown to 2027

This past week, Kenya took one its first major steps towards organising its next general elections in 2027, appointing a new chairperson and six commissioners for the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. However, the road ahead looks far from smooth.

If current trends persist, the country may face two more years marked by elevated (violent) protest activity, heightened political tensions, and mounting pressure on state institutions.

The first litmus test will be the by-elections that the commission is mandated to host before the 2027 general elections. These elections will give an early indication of political grievances and rivalries, potentially increasing the risk of election-related violence among an already charged population.

Addressing the root causes of public frustration and engaging in dialogue with key members of civil society will be critical if Kenya is to avoid further unrest. DM

Keri Leicher leads Security Information Services, and Moses Atiti is the Kenya Senior Analyst at Castor Vali Group, a risk consultancy focused on Africa.