Overwhelming Tour de France favourite Pogačar aiming for glory amid fierce competition

There should be at least two familiar sights at the 2025 Tour de France, which starts in Lille on 5 July: the view of the peloton streaking down the Champs-Élysées on the last day and Slovenian Tadej Pogačar in the leaders’ yellow jersey.

The former is guaranteed, as the race returns to the Parisian cobblestones for its finale for a 50th time since the laps down the famous boulevard were introduced in 1975. Last year the Tour ended in Nice, as Paris was being readied for the 2024 Summer Olympics.

It was the first time in the 112-year history of “La Grande Boucle” (the Big Loop) that the race did not end in the City of Light, but normal service will resume this year.

The other normal service that should resume, too, is the sight of Pogačar streaking to his fourth Tour de France title.

The UAE Team Emirates leader is unquestionably the best rider on the planet at the moment, but over three weeks, more than 3,300km and 21 stages a lot can go wrong, even for the best.

There is never a sure thing in a race of this magnitude because one crash, whether the rider’s fault or just a function of bad luck, can end it. Even a puncture at a critical moment, or a day of illness at the wrong time, could derail the best-laid plans. That’s why it’s almost impossible to preordain a victor.

Overwhelming favourite

Yet, in the brutal world of professional bike riding, where there are no guarantees and no favours, Pogačar remains as close to a sure thing as there can be.

He has won three Tours in five years. In 2024 he won the Giro d’Italia, the second of cycling’s three Grand Tours, and captured the road race title at the world championship.

That made Pogačar the first rider since Ireland’s Stephen Roche in 1987 to win those three races in the same year.

What’s more, the Slovenian has carried that form into 2025, when he changed his schedule, deciding against defending his Giro crown and rather making assaults on the Spring Classics — the four prestigious one-day races across Italy, Belgium, France and the Netherlands.

He won two of them — Liège-Bastogne-Liège (in Belgium) and the Tour of Flanders (Belgium) — and finished third in the monstrous Milan-San Remo (Italy), which often suits sprinters despite two tough climbs towards the end of the 296km route.

And to add to his growing aura of invincibility, Pogačar also won the traditional Tour de France scene-setter, the eight-day Critérium du Dauphiné, in southeastern France.

The Dauphiné, which is the last chance for general classification (GC) contenders to prepare for the Tour de France, often features a course that mirrors the challenges of the Tour. There are mountain stages, time trials and changing terrain. It brings the GC contenders face to face, where they are forced to literally look each other in the eye and lay down a marker for the Tour.

Pogačar not only beat main Tour rival Jonas Vingegaard, winner of the 2022 and 2023 Tours, in the Dauphiné this year, but also landed a psychological blow.

And when you look at the names of the 11 riders who have won both the Dauphiné and the Tour de France in the same year, it reads like a who’s who of cycling – Louison Bobet (1955), Jacques Anquetil (1963), Eddy Merckx (1971), Luis Ocaña (1973), Bernard Thévenet (1975), Bernard Hinault (1979, 1981), Miguel Induráin (1995), Bradley Wiggins (2012), Chris Froome (2013, 2015, 2016), Geraint Thomas (2018) and Vingegaard (2022).

Could Pogačar become the 12th rider to achieve the significant double?

Pogačar finished 59 seconds ahead of Vingegaard, but the Dane was still riding back to form after an early season injury. Despite the setback, in some ways the strong showing at the Dauphiné by Vingegaard will have furrowed Pogačar’s brow slightly.

Team strength

Although Pogačar and Vingegaard are both supreme riders in their own right, and will have to go toe-to-toe during the Tour, particularly in the high mountains, it’s a team sport and both have surrounded themselves with strength.

Vingegaard’s Visma-Lease a Bike team are stacked with great riders on varying terrains, as well as confirmed GC winners.

Simon Yates, who won the 2025 Giro d’Italia in spectacular fashion with an audacious attack on the penultimate stage, will be a fierce lieutenant for Vingegaard in the high mountains.

Brilliant all-terrain champion Wout van Aert is back to some of his best form in 2025. He will be tasked with not only winning stages on some of the hillier but tough stages, but also attacking Pogačar and Team UAE at strategic moments.

With quality backup riders such as Sepp Kuss (a former Vuelta a España winner) and the talented Matteo Jorgenson, Vingegaard’s advantage lies in a powerful squad that will probe and provoke Pogačar and his mates throughout the three weeks.

That said, Team UAE is also stacked with strong riders, especially for the high mountains, where they will need to offer their leader protection.

In Portugal’s João Almeida, Team UAE have a future Tour winner and arguably the most in-form GC rider in the peloton outside of Pogačar.

Almeida has had an exceptional 2025 season, winning Itzulia Basque Country, the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse. He is a phenomenal and consistent climber, known for his steady tempo-setting that grinds down rivals.

And alongside him will be Adam Yates, brother of Simon on the rival Visma team, who finished on the podium at the 2023 Tour de France. Adam doesn’t have explosiveness in the mountains, but he will set a searing tempo that will crack all but the elite riders.

Others such as double Olympic Champion Remco Evenepoel from Soudal Quick-Step and multiple Grand Tour winner Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe) are outsiders for the yellow jersey.

Overview

The 2025 Tour de France, entirely inside France, is a challenging 3,338.8km race over 21 stages.

7 – Flat stages: Primarily for sprinters, especially in the opening week.

6 – Hilly stages: Suited for puncheurs and breakaways, with undulating terrain and punchy climbs.

6 – Mountain stages: The core of the GC battle, including summit finishes on iconic climbs like Puy de Sancy (Stage 10), Hautacam (Stage 12), Luchon-Superbagnères (Stage 14), Mont Ventoux (Stage 16), Col de la Loze (Stage 18, the race’s highest point) and La Plagne (Stage 19).

2 – Individual time trials: A 33km flat individual time trial in Caen (Stage 5) and a crucial 10.9km mountain version ending at Peyragudes (Stage 13).

The race starts in Lille, heads west through Normandy and Brittany, then south into the Massif Central and Pyrenees, before a brutal final week in the Alps and Jura, concluding with the traditional Champs-Élysées sprint in Paris, which will include a hilly section over Montmartre. Two rest days are scheduled. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.