Alcaraz hot favourite to bag men’s Wimbledon hat-trick, but women’s draw is wide open

With every passing week, Spanish tennis sensation Carlos Alcaraz seems to be stalking a record of his illustrious compatriot, Rafael Nadal.

Last week, when he won the HSBC Championships at The Queen’s Club in London, he matched another piece of history. Alcaraz became the first man to win the French Open and the Queen’s titles back to back since Nadal in 2008.

The French Open is obviously played on slow clay, whereas Queen’s has grass courts. There are few sports in the world where the difference between playing surfaces is so vast – between dusty clay and low, fast grass.

There is a reason so few make the switch that seamlessly – because it’s hard and requires a period of adaptation. The ball comes at you faster and stays lower, affecting timing and trajectory.

Alcaraz won the previous two men’s singles titles at Wimbledon in 2023 and 2024. But this was his first title at Queen’s, marking a significant acceleration in his adaptation between the surfaces and confirming his status as the favourite for a hat-trick of titles at Wimbledon.

The last player to win three men’s singles titles in succession was Roger Federer in 2005 (the third of five in a row), so there is another milestone for Alcaraz to chase. Novak Djokovic won three in a row between 2018 and 2021, but no tournament was played in 2020 because of Covid.

Ominous warning

Jannik Sinner, who lost a final for the ages at Roland-Garros against Alcaraz after having three match points himself, lost in the second round of his season debut on grass in Halle.

Sinner ran into a smart and confident Alexander Bublik, who went on to win the title in Germany, but it underlined how tricky the transition between surfaces can be, even for the best players.

Sinner, though, did win the Halle Open in 2024, and also made the 2024 Wimbledon semifinal. He is no mug on grass.

But Alcaraz is the gold standard in the men’s draw and one suspects that if anyone else does win the title, they will have to go through the defending champion at some stage.

“I came here with no expectations at all,” Alcaraz said after his win at Queen’s. “I just came here with a goal to play two, three matches, try to feel great on grass moving and, you know, give myself the feedback of what I have to improve, what I have to do better.

“But, you know, I just got used to the grass really quickly, and I’m just really proud [of] it. My goal was complete, and I’m not talking about lifting the trophy or making the final. It was just to feel great, to feel really comfortable on grass once again.

“What I’m proud [of] this week is the way that I have been improving every day. Since the first day until today, I think I’m a different player on grass.”

That should be an ominous warning to Sinner and the rest of his rivals. Alcaraz is in the form of his life, and at only 22 and with five Grand Slam singles titles already, it will take a special effort to stop him at Wimbledon.

The Spaniard has won five titles in 2025 already and is on an 18-match winning streak since losing the final in Barcelona on clay.

Although Alcaraz always appears modest about his achievements, he was happy to pat himself on the back about his current form when quizzed about the streak during Queen’s.

“The level that I’m playing lately, it’s really high. I feel that. Yeah, I have a lot of confidence right now,” he admitted.

“I’m just really happy to get my longest winning streak of my career and hopefully I’m not going to stop here.”

Rivals have been warned.

Sinner, of course, remains the world No 1 and is the top seed at the All England Club. If he and Alcaraz are to resume their growing rivalry, it would be in the final on 13 July.

As ever, the 38-year-old warhorse Djokovic, winner of seven Wimbledon singles titles and the losing finalist in 2023 and 2024, will be among the favourites.

His run to the Roland-Garros semis was the best he looked all season, but the way Sinner dismantled Djokovic in the last four was telling.

Of course, it’s a different surface, but it seems that several of the younger generation have caught up to Djokovic, with Alcaraz and Sinner pulling ahead.

Jack Draper, winner at Indian Wells earlier this year and a semifinalist at Queen’s, is the great British hope in 2025, and his credentials suggest he could make a decent dash at the title.

Bublik is playing with immense confidence, as his run at Halle underlined. Germany’s Alexander Zverev is without doubt the best player on tour without a major, but his record on grass is average. He has never progressed beyond the fourth round at SW19 and has not won a grass court title at any level as a professional.

Women’s draw

World No 1 Aryna Sabalenka will start as one of the favourites, but she has not tasted victory at Wimbledon before and has not won a title anywhere on a grass court.

Recent French Open winner and world No 2 Coco Gauff is another without success at Wimbledon – she has never been beyond the fourth round. Iga Świątek, with one quarterfinal appearance, is another who can’t find her best at SW19.

The failure of the leading women’s players at Wimbledon and more broadly with their struggles on grass is why, of all the Grand Slams, it has thrown up a wide array of left-field women’s champions recently.

The past seven singles titles have been won by seven different players, including the Czech duo of Markéta Vondroušová (2023) and Barbora Krejčíková (2024).

Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina, the 2022 champion, remains a real threat on grass courts, having won 29 matches on the surface since 2021.

Vondroušová, despite dropping to No 164 in the world, sent a reminder of her threat on grass by winning the Berlin WTA tournament.

Krejčíková has also had recent struggles and has been hampered by a thigh strain. But at No 17 in the world, she will be confident at Wimbledon and has a rare opportunity to become the first woman since Serena Williams in 2016 to win back-to-back titles. DM

Men’s singles seeds (Wimbledon 2025)

1 Jannik Sinner (ITA)

2 Carlos Alcaraz (ESP)

3 Alexander Zverev (GER)

4 Jack Draper (GBR)

5 Taylor Fritz (USA)

6 Novak Djokovic (SRB)

7 Lorenzo Musetti (ITA)

8 Holger Rune (DEN)

9 Daniil Medvedev (RUS)

10 Ben Shelton (US)

11 Alex de Minaur (AUS)

12 Frances Tiafoe (US)

13 Tommy Paul (US)

14 Andrey Rublev (RUS)

15 Jakub Menšík (CZE)

16 Francisco Cerundolo (ARG)

Women’s singles seeds (Wimbledon 2025)

1 Aryna Sabalenka (BLR)

2 Coco Gauff (US)

3 Jessica Pegula (US)

4 Jasmine Paolini (ITA)

5 Zheng Qinwen (CHN)

6 Madison Keys (US)

7 Mirra Andreeva (RUS)

8 Iga Świątek (POL)

9 Emma Navarro (US)

10 Paula Badosa (ESP)

11 Elena Rybakina (KAZ)

12 Diana Shnaider (RUS)

13 Amanda Anisimova (US)

14 Elina Svitolina (UKR)

15 Karolína Muchová (CZE)

16 Daria Kasatkina (RUS)

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.