Patriotic Alliance supporters in Dysselsdorp, about 30km from Oudtshoorn, before the by-election on 24 April 2024. (Photo: Suné Payne) 
Ward 9 (D’Almeida Tarka) Mossel Bay, Garden Route: PA 51% (7%) DA 39% (45%) ANC 8% (17%) Ind-October 2%
The setting: D’Almeida and Tarka are west of the Mossel Bay city centre. The communities are also south of Santos Bay beach. Mossel Bay has the oldest postbox in the country. It is also the home municipality of Springbok rugby player Stefan Terblanche and golfer Louis Oosthuizen.
It forms part of the Garden Route district which includes Oudtshoorn, Knysna and George.
The 2021 local government election: The DA won this ward, but did so with less than half of the vote. A regional party, the Independent Civic Organisation of South Africa (Icosa) came second in the ward with 23%. Icosa was second in all three voting districts. The ANC was the only other party to get into double percentage figures. The Patriotic Alliance (PA) pipped the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) to fourth place, with the ACDP taking 5%.
The DA won 19 seats on the 29-seat council. The ANC came second with five and the FF+ came in third with two, while Icosa, the PA and the ACDP obtained one each.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA came first with 47% of the vote when one considers the three voting districts in the ward. The PA made very big inroads to finish second on 36%. Former Icosa voters and a large number of ANC voters made their cross next to the PA logo. The ANC was a distant third on 8%.
The most-populous voting district, D’Almeida Community Hall, had a turnout of just 25%. The PA won this district and the DA the other two. In Tarka at the El Shaddai Church the turnout was 64%. At the other D’Almeida voting district it was 54%.
Mossel Bay was the municipality where the DA did best in 2024, winning 66% on the provincial ballot.
The by-election: The three-term ward councillor died. Icosa elected not to contest the by-election. Bernard October from the Our Roots civic association ran as an independent. The grouping was founded by a former PA councillor.
The PA upended the DA in this ward by 291 votes. D’Almeida Community Hall was key for the PA. The PA beat the DA in this district on the 2024 provincial ballot; however, the turnout was very low here in 2024, with only 25% of voters showing up. The turnout more than doubled in this by-election.
In 2024, the DA beat the PA by 152 votes in the El Shaddai Church in Tarka. In the by-election, it beat the DA by 38 votes. The PA and the DA shared the spoils at the Sao Brass voting district. In 2024, the DA beat the PA by 80 votes here.
The ANC showed no signs of recovery in this ward, while the independent candidate and the grassroots movement behind him were well off the pace.
The DA now has 18 seats in the 29-seat council, while the PA joins the FF+ as the joint third-largest parties on the council with two seats each. The PA made a big statement with this by-election win. Mossel Bay was the gold standard for the DA in 2024. Thirteen months after that stellar electoral performance in Mossel Bay and the party finds itself losing a seat to the PA.
The PA will have tremendous momentum when it tackles the DA in Nelson Mandela Bay, Drakenstein and Bergrivier in July.
Poll: 50% (49%)
Ward 8 (Concordia Joodse Kamp) Knysna, Garden Route: ANC 52% (72%) PA 32% (5%) EFF 9% (5%) MK 6% KIM 1% (1%) LAND <1%
The setting: Ward 8 sits above the N2 national road and is north of the industrial part of Knysna. Most of the voters are in Concordia. Joodse Kamp is an ANC stronghold.
The 2021 local government election: The ANC romped home in Ward 8, well ahead of the chasing pack. The DA came second with 10%. The local Knysna Unity Congress (KUC) was third with 6%, while the PA was just ahead of the EFF in fourth place.
The ANC carried both districts by a large majority, winning 62% in Concordia and 88% in Joodse Kamp.
The 2024 provincial election: The ANC won two-thirds of the vote in the voting districts that make up Ward 8. The DA was second with 12% and the PA third with 10%. The EFF garnered 7% while the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party had to settle for 1% support in the ward.
The by-election: Aubrey Tsengwa was mayor of Knysna and the councillor for Ward 8. He resigned his seat. Tsengwa lost his mayoral chain after a vote of no confidence. The motion was centred on illegal personnel appointments. The MEC for local government, environmental affairs and development planning, Anton Bredell, was in the process of removing Tsengwa as a councillor for misconduct, but Tsengwa resigned from the council before he could be pushed. He was also temporarily suspended by the ANC. Despite this, he was nominated as the candidate for the ANC at the ward community meeting. The party welcomed his nomination.
The DA and KUC chose not to contest the by-election. Despite their absence, a crowded field lined up to challenge the ANC in a historically safe ANC seat.
The ANC retained the seat, winning more than half the vote, but it was 20% down from 2021 and 14% down from 2024. This was despite a major turnout differential in the ANC stronghold of Joodse Kamp.
The ANC beat the PA by 615 votes in Joodse Kamp. Despite this impressive margin, the ANC saw the PA, the EFF and MK eat into its territory. The PA received more than 100 more votes than in the 2024 provincial ballot. The ANC’s percentage vote share in Joodse Kamp declined from 88% in 2021 to 69%.
While the EFF and MK grew in Joodse Kamp, it was the PA that finished second in this district. This result within a result for the PA is highly encouraging.
In Concordia, the ANC’s vote share plummeted from 62% to 38%, while the PA surged from 7% to 46%. Comparing the 2024 provincial ballot in Concordia with the by-election, the PA turned a 728-vote deficit into a 110-vote majority in Concordia. The party not only benefited from the DA not being on the ballot, but it was also able to win over ANC voters.
Poll: 51% (53%)
Ward 56 (Hatfield Brooklyn) Tshwane: DA 80% (62%) EFF 10% (9%) FF+ 6% (10%) ANC 4% (7%)
The setting: Ward 56 is just east of the city centre. It includes a large chunk of the University of Pretoria campus, the student area of Hatfield, the malls of Brooklyn and the Hazel Food Market. The smallest number of voters in the ward are in the suburb of Nieuw Muckleneuk, yet these are often the most energised voters in the ward. Nieuw Muckleneuk is on the southern edge of the ward, away from Brooklyn and Hatfield.
The 2021 local government election: The DA won by a comfortable margin, but was hurt by both ActionSA, which came second with 10%, and the Freedom Front Plus (FF+), which was just behind, also on 10%. The EFF beat the ANC in Hatfield to finish fourth. The DA won all the voting districts in 2021. Hatfield was the most competitive area of the ward. The DA won more than 70% of the vote in both Brooklyn districts, but did best in Nieuw Muckleneuk with more than 73%.
The 2024 provincial election: The DA won just more than 50% of the vote in the districts that make up Ward 56 on the provincial ballot. Its biggest margin of victory was in the Nieuw Muckleneuk district. Despite being the district with the fewest voters, the 76% poll in the district was considerably higher than the ward average of 60%.
The EFF came second on the provincial ballot here with 22%. It won the voting district centred on the University of Pretoria and pushed the DA in the other Hatfield district. The EFF was well ahead of the ANC which finished third with 8%. While most of the voters in the ward are in Hatfield, there was only a 51% turnout at the voting district around the University of Pretoria, while it was marginally higher at Belgrave Park, the other Hatfield district, where 56% of voters showed up.
The FF+ beat ActionSA to fourth place, with both parties obtaining 4%. Rise Mzansi was just behind them on 3%.
The by-election: The ward councillor resigned. ActionSA, which came second here in 2021, did not contest the by-election.
The DA retained the ward by a landslide margin. However, the extremely low turnout was most concerning. Only 4% of Hatfield voters turned up. This is probably because many students are on holiday. The turnout was better in Brooklyn and Nieuw Muckleneuk.
Read more: By-elections hub
The DA won more than 90% of the vote in Nieuw Muckleneuk and just under 90% of the vote in the two Brooklyn voting districts. The FF+ was a long way off in these districts. The DA will hope that this pattern continues when it faces off against the FF+ in two upcoming Tshwane by-elections.
The EFF retained the voting district centred on the University of Pretoria and beat the ANC for second place in the other Hatfield district. The EFF won more than double the number of votes compared with the ANC. Despite the low Hatfield turnout, the EFF will be satisfied with its showing against the ANC.
Poll: 12% (39%)
The next round of by-elections will be on 2 July when the ANC defends a safe seat in Nelson Mandela Bay. DM