US joining war on Iran creates major political headache for SA

By sunset on Sunday, 22 June, as news of the extraordinary US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities at Israel’s behest continued to ricochet globally, barely a single South African politician seemed willing to come out publicly with a position on the matter.

Fikile Mbalula. Gayton McKenzie. Herman Mashaba. These are hardly shrinking violets when it comes to making their views known on forums like X — yet on the matter of the Iranian bombing, at the time of writing, there was a deafening silence from them.

Neither was there yet an official statement available from either the DA or the ANC, suggesting that SA’s two biggest political parties were to some degree agonising over what, exactly, to say. From Parliament’s committee on international relations: niks.

The Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco) was mute on Sunday too, and a Daily Maverick query to its spokesperson, Clayson Monyela, went unanswered.

Ramaphosa issues mild reprimand of US

By mid-afternoon, President Cyril Ramaphosa had grasped the nettle — kind of — and released a statement that said relatively little.

“President Cyril Ramaphosa and the South African government have noted with a great deal of anxiety the entry by the United States of America into the Israel-Iran war,” it read, followed by a weak rebuke of the Trump administration.

“It was South Africa’s sincerest hope that President Donald Trump would use his influence and that of the US government to prevail on the parties to pursue a dialogue path in resolving their issues of dispute.”

The statement concluded, as is on brand for Ramaphosa, with a call for “peaceful resolution”.

Despite the fact that Tehran and Pretoria enjoy warm diplomatic relations, Ramaphosa’s statement revealed the diplomatic egg dance that the situation presents to the South African government.

South Africa cannot risk alienating the Trump administration further, with the relationship still on life support from the buildup to the Trump-Ramaphosa Oval Office showdown in late May.

The Israel factor is a significant complication

The difficulty for Pretoria is that the Iranian strike was overtly carried out at the behest of Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump’s brief televised announcement, confirming that US fighter jets had targeted multiple nuclear research sites in Iran, ended not only with “God bless the Middle East” and “God bless America” but also, specifically, “God bless Israel” — a closing flourish that left little doubt about whose interests were being prioritised.

South Africa has positioned itself internationally as one of the staunchest critics of Israel’s conduct, culminating in its landmark International Court of Justice case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. Pretoria has also publicly cut diplomatic ties with Israel, formally downgrading the embassy. In the face of this new regional escalation, it must now consider how to balance that principled commitment with its allegiance to Iran, a fellow BRICS member — while simultaneously avoiding direct confrontation with a still-dominant United States.

With that in mind, the silence of the political class on Sunday was, frankly, understandable.

BRICS buddies band together?

South Africa and Iran have shared membership of BRICS since an invitation was issued to the latter at the 2023 Johannesburg summit.

Other BRICS states were less hesitant in responding to the bombing. The Chinese foreign ministry issued an unambiguous condemnation:

“China strongly condemns the U.S. attacks on Iran and bombing of nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. The actions of the U.S. seriously violate the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, and have exacerbated tensions in the Middle East. China calls on the parties to the conflict, Israel in particular, to reach a ceasefire as soon as possible, ensure the safety of civilians, and start dialogue and negotiation.”

Saudi Arabia, whose new BRICS membership sits awkwardly with its often-fraught relationship with Iran, struck a more guarded tone. Its official English-language X account posted:

“The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is following with great concern the developments in the sisterly Islamic Republic of Iran, represented by the targeting of Iranian nuclear facilities by the United States of America.”

The United States, meanwhile, was vocally backed by a handful of close allies. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer offered a firm endorsement of the bombing, posting on X:

“Iran’s nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security. Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat.”

But from other corners of the West, the reaction was unease rather than celebration.

Carl Bildt, co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations, called the bombing a “clear-cut violation of international law”. UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he was “gravely alarmed” by the use of force by the US.

A massively unpopular war

Complicating the picture for South Africa is the fact that this conflict is likely to be widely unpopular across the globe — including among Western populations. Comparisons are already being drawn with the disastrous US invasion of Iraq in 2003, and social media suggests a growing generational divide in how such conflicts are understood as the post-World War 2 political consensus crumbles.

Young people in particular are questioning why Israel, which has not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and possesses undeclared nuclear weapons, is held to a radically different standard than Iran, which remains under international inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

This is also a moment when support for Israel is at an all-time low. Tens of thousands of protesters flooded European capitals over the weekend, voicing opposition to the ongoing bombardment of Gaza.

In June, a YouGov poll showed support for Israel in Western Europe had sunk to its lowest levels ever recorded. In Germany, France and the UK, only between 13% and 21% of respondents now hold favourable views of Israel, compared to 63% to 70% expressing negative sentiments.

As South Africa mulls its response, the stakes are particularly high. The government has sought to portray itself as a champion of the Global South, a defender of international law, and a broker of multipolar diplomacy. The entrance of the United States into open hostilities against Iran, with Israel applauding from the wings, tests every aspect of that narrative. DM