The Virgin Active Padel Club courts in George. Source: Virgin Active 
Your sister. Your neighbour. Your father. Your boss. These days, it seems almost everyone is playing (and mispronouncing) padel. As South Africa’s fastest-growing sport, this love child of tennis and squash is more than just a social sensation – it’s a case study of the risks and rewards of investing in trends.
Padel is having a global moment right now with an estimated 25 million players dotted across 90 countries. But the Spaniards will be quick to tell you that Spain is both the instigator and the undisputed padel leader (which is why the “correct” pronunciation is the Spanish-influenced pah-DEL, not paddle or PA-dle). The story goes that a Spanish prince visited Mexico in 1974, where he met the inventor of padel, tried the game and decided to bring it home. The rest, as they say, is history.
Today, Spain has more than 5 million padel players, 14,000 courts and the World Padel Tour under its belt. The country has spent decades transforming padel into its second-most popular sport (after football, of course) through low barriers to entry, easy accessibility and a sports development model that got it right.
Padel hits SA shores
South Africa is playing catch-up, but we’re doing it fast. Since it first landed on our shores in 2020, padel has spread rapidly, starting (predictably) in the middle-class enclaves of Gauteng and the Western Cape.
The very first courts were built at Val de Vie, an ultra-exclusive gated estate in the Paarl winelands.
Soon, country clubs in Cape Town and Johannesburg followed suit, repurposing underused bowling greens and tennis courts to cash in on the hype.
Four years later, padel has started inching beyond the big cities, but it’s still very much a sport for the elite. According to the latest BrandMapp survey, nearly half of South African padel players come from the country’s top 5% of households (those earning more than R40,000 per month). So, although padel might be easy to pick up, in South Africa it’s still not that easy to access.
Hype builds – as do costs
Five years ago, most South Africans had never heard of padel. Today, there are 206 clubs, more than 600 courts and an estimated 100,000 players throughout the country, according to the International Padel Federation (FIP). And the growth doesn’t seem to be slowing down.
Virgin Active Padel Club, already home to 65 courts, plans to push that number to nearly 100 by mid-2025, according to Elian Wiener, cofounder and managing director of the Virgin Active Padel Club. He’s confident the sport will keep expanding, and the global numbers back him up.
Reed more: The padel craze – a mix of tennis and squash that’s taking South Africa by storm
Between 2021 and 2024, the number of padel courts worldwide shot up by 240%, according to the FIP. In other words, if you’re not playing padel yet, give it a minute.
As padel fever sweeps the country, big-name property players such as Attacq Limited are getting in on the action, reworking prime commercial spaces to squeeze in courts. The Mall of Africa, for example, boasts six courts.
But for investors eyeing padel as their next big move, there’s a catch: finding the right space. A standard court needs 21m x 11m, proper drainage, a north-south orientation (to limit the effect of sunlight on players’ visibility – obviously this isn’t a factor if the court is indoors) and ample secure parking. Outdoor courts come with their own headaches, as weather conditions such as extreme heat, wind and rain can eat into profitability, especially for the increasingly popular rooftop setups.
Then there’s the cost. Building a single court – excluding land – runs anywhere from R600,000 to R1-million.
Although the early adopters of padel were cashing in, paying off their courts within a year thanks to their 70% occupancy rates, things have shifted.
Most South African padel courts now operate at just 30% to 50% occupancy, according to Roger Barrow, general manager of the Padel Building Company, speaking on the podcast The Corner Office.
To push beyond 60%, the courts would need to fill off-peak hours (1pm to 3pm or even after midnight). As it stands, the real money is made in two prime windows: 5am to 8.30am and 4pm to 10pm.
For those stuck at the lower end of the occupancy scale, the pay-off period stretches to about four years, assuming their setup includes revenue-generation amenities such as cafes or sports shops.
International lessons
Trends come and go, and a look at international markets may hold some clues for eager padel investors. In Sweden, which was once a padel pioneer, the market is now struggling with oversaturation. As a result, Swedish giant We Are Padel is applying for corporate restructuring and may have to close half of its 80 venues.
There’s definitely a lesson in there about responding too enthusiastically to trends. Whether South Africa follows suit or keeps the momentum going remains to be seen.
Is a disruptor waiting in the wings?
Pickleball, which is part tennis and part ping-pong, has been picking up serious momentum in South Africa in recent years. Played with a perforated plastic ball and paddles on a smaller court, the sport only really caught on locally in 2021, long after the rest of the world had jumped on the trend. But now, South Africans are swapping racquets for paddles.
The numbers are backing the hype. According to Bonafide Research, South Africa’s pickleball market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 23.49% from 2024 to 2029, thanks to the sport’s affordability and accessibility.
One of the biggest advantages of pickleball is the size of the court: four pickleball courts fit perfectly inside one tennis court. This means that old, vandalised and abandoned tennis courts are prime real estate for pickleball, especially in underserved communities. Some resurfacing is usually needed, and for social play, adding night lighting can make a big difference.
If you’re a racquet sport enthusiast in South Africa, you’re spoilt for choice right now. Between tennis, squash, padel and now pickleball, there’s never been a better time to grab a racquet and hit the court. But if you’re someone who invested in the padel boom, you might be feeling a little uneasy.
With pickleball gaining traction, the competition for players is heating up. Padel has dominated the social sports scene for the past few years, but as more South Africans pick up a pickleball paddle, court owners could be facing a shift in demand.
The real question is: is pickleball just another trend, or is it here to stay? And more importantly, what does that mean for the future of padel? DM
Dominique Olivier writes at www.humanwriter.co.za
This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.
