Uncertain future: how a Trump presidency could reshape South Africa's economic landscape

Will another Donald Trump presidency be good or bad for South Africa? No one seems sure, not even the South African government.

Clayson Monyela, spokesperson for the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, posted an enthusiastic message on X on Wednesday, welcoming Trump’s victory and noting that “historically, relations between South Africa and the US thrive under a Republican White House”.

He noted, for instance, that in Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021, he had appointed as his ambassador to South Africa a woman born in the country  – Lana Marks – “who was brilliant, and helped to enhance the strong and mutually beneficial ties between our two nations”.

Then Monyela’s social media post suddenly disappeared. Sources in the department told Daily Maverick his superiors had made him take it down, even if there was some truth in it. But it was clearly ideologically incorrect as the ANC has historically had closer ties with America’s Democratic Party.

Monyela was obviously referring to programmes such as Pepfar, which has given South Africa more than $8-billion to fight Aids; the US Development Finance Corporation, which can provide up to $60-billion in government money to leverage investment in Africa and elsewhere; and Prosper Africa, which coordinates 17 US agencies in supporting African development. They have all been introduced during Republican presidencies, though all have enjoyed strong bipartisan support.

But Trump is not the Republican Party of old. He prides himself on his unpredictability in foreign policy. The world is anxiously wondering what will he do now that he is armed with a powerful mandate after sweeping the White House, the Senate and probably the House of Representatives.

Will he withdraw US military support from Ukraine and possibly force it into a bad peace deal with Russia? Will he pull the US out of Nato and expose its European members to possible further Russian aggression?

Will he slap massive import tariffs on China and other countries, possibly igniting a global trade war that plunges the world into recession? He has threatened to do all of the above, but whether and how he executes the threats are open questions.

For South Africa, the uncertainty is mostly about economic relations with the US and particularly the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which gives duty-free access to the lucrative US market for most exports of eligible sub-Saharan countries. It has been profitable in particular for South African exporters of vehicles, wines and fruit.

But the Agoa programme expires next year and there are some doubts about whether Trump will support its renewal, as he believes in reciprocity and Agoa is a one-way deal. African countries don’t have to open their markets to US imports.

And, even if Agoa is renewed, South Africa remains at risk of being suspended because of the ANC’s friendships with Russia, China and Iran, which have annoyed Republican legislators in particular.

Not a top priority

So, what should South Africa – and the rest of Africa – expect?

“Africa is unlikely to be a top priority for Trump and, where it is, it’s likely to be transactional – for example, critical minerals access,” said Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs.

The minerals she refers to are the lithium, cobalt, copper, coltan and so on that are critical for advanced technologies including electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energies, and abundant in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia.

“For South Africa specifically, the issue of Agoa will loom large,” said Sidiropoulos, who thinks it will be renewed – but not, as South Africa and many other countries hoped, during the lame-duck session of the current Congress, which will be held before the inauguration of the new Congress in January 2025.

She believes South Africa will remain in Agoa but possibly under new, tighter conditions: being less hostile to Israel, for example. Or the renewed Agoa may exclude countries that use the Chinese company Huawei’s 5G technology, which the US believes allows ­China to spy on other countries.

Sidiropoulos thinks South Africa – and many other countries, including in Africa – may feel the fallout if Trump intensifies his economic and technology war on China, because the latter is a significant trading partner for South Africa and the rest of the continent. “A healthy Chinese economy is in our interests,” she said.

She also suspects that because Trump doesn’t believe in man-made climate change, his administration may withdraw US financial support for the Just Energy Transition Partnership through which it and other Western partners are providing $8.5-billion to South Africa to transition away from coal to renewables.

“Will the US continue to provide financing for renewable energy, or might there instead be support for lengthening the life of coal stations?” Sidiropoulos asked.

Emma Powell, foreign affairs spokesperson for the DA, believes Trump will be more cautious about Agoa eligibility, showing less tolerance of any South African government action that may be perceived as undermining the national security interests of the US. Not undermining such interests is one of the conditions for participation in Agoa.

Eckart Naumann, independent economist and associate of the Trade Law Centre (Tralac), says now that Republicans are in control of the White House, the Senate and possibly also the House of Representatives, they may pass an Agoa renewal Bill that is “a bit more bare-bones than expected” and more transactional, perhaps with some tariff-free access being removed – for example, vehicles, South Africa’s key export.

New Agoa legislation could more explicitly line up reciprocal trade deals with countries that will gradually be moved out of Agoa when they exceed a specified income level.

Naumann fears the new Congress will have its hands full, and so renewing Agoa might not be a priority. This delay may prompt US buyers to look elsewhere than Africa for their goods.

He does not think Trump’s insistence on reciprocity in trade deals will jeopardise Agoa, because it has long enjoyed support from both Republicans and Democrats, as well as most US businesses. And imports under Agoa account for less than 1% of total US imports, so it is unlikely to be a major policy issue.

Naumann also suggests the Trump administration may want to continue Agoa to remain on good terms with Africa so that access to its critical minerals, for which the US is competing with China, is maintained.

“South Africa’s relationship with China will be more closely scrutinised, as will developments with Israel, and South Africa’s commercial and political links with Iran,” he said.

“Legislation to compel a review of the US-South Africa relationship has already passed the House and will have little difficulty passing a Republican Senate. There is uncertainty ahead, but this doesn’t necessarily spell doom and gloom for South Africa, or Africa more broadly, and may reveal a few new opportunities.”

Insider’s view

J Peter Pham perhaps understands better than most what to expect, as he served under Trump as US special envoy for the Great Lakes and then for the Sahel. He remains influential in Republican circles and is thought likely to take a senior role in the Trump administration.

He tells Daily Maverick he believes Agoa will be renewed, but he sees “challenges to South Africa’s eligibility under the plain language of the statute”.

Pham earlier told Voice of America that Trump has made it clear he wants capable partners who share the burden with the US. In terms of security, that could be Nato allies in Europe spending on defence what they had committed to over a decade ago.

But it could also be allies elsewhere, including Africa, “who are capable, who contribute to America’s security even as America contributes to theirs”.

He thinks Trump will review whether certain US commitments in Africa are worth the money, “much less American lives”. For example, during his first term, Trump withdrew US forces from Somalia.

President Joe Biden sent the troops back in, but Pham expects Trump will reverse that decision.

Pham said the US requires access to critical minerals produced in Africa, which could be a win-win partnership as Africa needs investments that add value to its ­natural resources.

He was evidently referring to projects like the memorandum of understanding that the US signed with the DRC and Zambia in December 2022 for the joint development of an integrated value chain for the production of EV batteries using critical mineral resources from those countries. The US is trying to reduce China’s big lead in developing supply chains for these minerals.

Pham also suggested in the Voice of America interview that in the US under Trump “a lot of the lecturing and moralising that has contributed to turning many countries in Africa away from the US” will be “replaced by a more pragmatic approach that listens, looks at national interests on both sides and balances it”.

Pham said reciprocity will be important for the Trump administration, including in trade, national interest or security.

“Agoa is up for renewal and I expect it will be renewed, but its conditions – and there are conditions – will be looked at, including ... reforming the economy and opening the markets.

“But another is not undermining US foreign policy interests or national security. And we have countries in Africa that have been doing that, including some of the countries that benefit most from Agoa. Including South Africa, for example, which never misses an opportunity to kick America in the teeth. And we have to question whether they are eligible under these criteria.

“That’s a question that has been raised not just by Republicans, but in the current Congress by senior Democrats.”

The thing that has most annoyed these Republicans and Democrats who want to kick South Africa out of Agoa is the country’s friendship with Russia, and its refusal to condemn its invasion of Ukraine.

Asked whether Trump may not be less concerned about this than the Biden administration, since he himself seems to be on good terms with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pham told Daily Maverick: “Friends can agree to differ on one point or another, but if someone is always contradicting you, at some point you have to ask if he or she is in fact even a friend.

“It is not just [President Cyril] Ramaphosa’s obsequiousness to Putin, but also South Africa’s troubling links to China, Iran and a host of lesser foes, as well as its campaign of delegitimisation against Israel.

“It all adds up to the undermining of US security and foreign policy interests mentioned in the Agoa legislation.”

Pham emphasised that he was speaking in his personal capacity and not for Trump. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R35.