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After the Bell: Why is the electoral power of the far right in Europe increasing?

The emergence of the ‘far right’ has been a constant theme of European politics for years and it’s fair to say that European left-wingers and cultural elites are not only horrified but positively astounded about the trend in a mesmerised kind of way.
After the Bell: Why is the electoral power of the far right in Europe increasing? The Houses of Parliament in the UK are likely to see new occupants of the government benches after the results of the general election on 4 July are announced. (Photo: Peter Nicholls / Getty Images)

It’s an amazing week in politics when not one but two European countries have elections that are clusterfucks. Although the UK election on Thursday and the French second round on Sunday have very different dynamics, they do have one thing in common: far-right parties are going to do well. Why is that?

I have a totally unoriginal theory that can be expressed in a single word: age.

The emergence of the “far right” has been a constant theme of European politics for years and it’s fair to say that European left-wingers and cultural elites are not only horrified but positively astounded about the trend in a mesmerised kind of way.

Take the French election on Sunday, for example. The French electoral system is remarkable in many ways, but it’s very deliberately designed to favour centrist parties. That’s achieved by the two-round system in which the 577 “deputies” of the National Assembly are elected in single-member constituencies. After the first round, only the candidates with the support of at least 12.5% of eligible voters move on to the next round.

Usually, in France, that means candidates in only two parties go forward. But occasionally, three parties go forward in what in France is called a “triangulaire” (as opposed to a ménage à trois). It’s a measure of how weird these elections have been that in 2017 there was one triangulaire and in 2022 there were eight. This time, there were 306 three-way and five four-way runoffs. WTF doesn’t quite capture it.

It’s a measure of the hatred and bile against the “far right” that the left-wing party, the New Popular Front, has pulled its candidates out of the races where, generally, it came third.

“Not a single vote for the National Rally (RN),” said Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former leader of the La France Insoumise group. The French president and leader of the Ensemble grouping, Emmanuel Macron, whose ass is not on the line in this election and who was pilloried for calling the snap election in the first place, sort of joined the effort, but also sort of didn’t. But anyway, with third-place candidates from both left and right pulling out, there will only be about 108 triangulaires.

There are two reasons this happened: the top three parties got an unusually large proportion of the vote and the turnout was massive — 20 percentage points higher than last time. The reason turnout was high probably has something to do with the telegenic, social media savvy 28-year-old “far right” candidate Jordan Bardella.

Bardella, I suspect, is a function of a gradual adaptation of the “far right”, not dissimilar to Giorgia Meloni, now the prime minister of Italy. Her party, Fratelli d’Italia, was founded by supporters of the former fascist leader Benito Mussolini. Meloni has campaigned on the right but is governing more towards the centre. Likewise, Bardella’s party was once verging on anti-Semitic but has pulled the party towards the centre.

As it happens, with tactical voting, it is unlikely that the RN will win a majority, which is why French bonds have rallied recently. But that doesn’t change the fact that the RN won more votes this time than any other single party in either the national or presidential elections in living memory. The result confirms the outcome of the recent European elections rather than repudiating it, as Macron hoped it would.

What about the UK? The shocker of the current campaign is not that the Tories are likely to lose, but that they might even become relegated to the third-largest party. There is even a tiny outside chance they will become the fourth largest! This is quite an achievement for perhaps the most successful political party in history. Once again, WTF doesn’t quite capture it.

The leader of the “far right” in the UK, Nigel Farage, has a bloke-ish campaigning style, quite a contrast to the slickness of Bardella or even the young-mod attraction of Meloni. What unites them and other right-wing candidates comes down to a single issue: immigration. Their principal complaint, not totally illegitimate as it happens, is that the millions of legal and illegal immigrants that have flocked to Europe from the thug states of the Middle East over the past decade have not all magically signed on to the ideals of the European enlightenment.

Consequently, the RN wants to scrap the provision that children born to foreigners in France automatically become citizens. This is no small issue: about 20% of total births in Europe are from foreign parents. For European elites and left-wingers, the idea of being brutally awful to migrants is untenable — as it is to me. But when about 30% of your population is either foreign-born or has a single foreign-born parent, you can see why it’s a concern.

The irony is that Europe needs immigrants and European leaders know this.  European demographics are now close to becoming a serious economic problem, as a combination of natural ageing and longer lifespans become more pronounced. About 21% of Europeans are now over 65, and they are rightly worried about their state pensions.

These two elections might throw up unusual results, but this is just the start — global weirding has just begun. DM

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Comments (7)

Karl Sittlinger Jul 5, 2024, 09:08 AM

Chatting to my friends in Germany, there seems to be a view of some that the immigration gates have been open a bit to widely for to long, the influx being to great for the country to absorb and support. Reasons include cultural issues, where immigrants refuse to adapt to their new homes culture, and locals seem to be inflexible to any foreign cultures. It is generally not unreasonable to have to adapt to the countries culture you are living in however and whether true or not there seems to be a perception that this is not the case for many immigrants. It also includes financial challenges, where people that have worked their entire lives in their own country are facing cuts in pension increases, increased cost of living, more taxes etc yet somehow need to support a steady stream of people that have just arrived and added little to the social system. While most foreigners are hard workers pulling their own weight I have no doubt, at least some of them are there for a free ride paid for by the very people that are now struggling. Sure, some of this is fueled by right wing media, but there seems to be some truth to it. When your locals feel like they are being treated worse than immigrants, and are then being told that they themselves are the problem, it's likely they will turn away from the current government and seek alternatives not because of their crazy policies, but in spite of. And after all, it is human to first try and find excuses for problems before looking at own behavior. But to ignore clear facts because they are inconvenient will cause people to not trust you. As an example, the fact that crime statistics show that while the number of German criminals increased by one percent compared to 2022, the number of crimes among non-German criminals, i.e. those with an immigrant background, increased by 17.8 percent in a single year plays well into the hands of right wing politics, the lefts inability to even discuss this fairly makes it even worse. While these increases in crime have more complex reasons than just the an increase in immigration, to even suggest that at least some of the increase in crime is due to immigrants is absolutely taboo for many on the left. The culture wars have exasperated all of this, and I firmly believe that it has deepened divisions. Gone are the days of moderate views, often accompanied by personal insults and virtue signaling by the hard left or right. Some topics of debate have become so taboo that the mere mentioning of them automatically push whoever dared to bring them up into an ideological corner and are then summarily silenced by bullying (online mainly) and ad hominem attacks. Traditionally in the past it was the right that did this the most, but in the last few years its been a loud vocal far left that is just as if not more guilty of this behaviour. And so, if a moderate citizen facing a decline in their quality of life even just brings up concerns deemed taboo by some, he/she will immediately be called an anti immigration right winger or similar. At some point you will alienate your voters, they will stop participating in debates or take them into their own echo chambers, coming out once every couple of years to vote. This silencing has caused that over 15% of German's support the right wing party AFD in my opinion, frightening for a country with a horrific right wing past. Maybe it's time to talk a little differently to voters, and maybe not just wave away all their concerns as racist (or some other label) ramblings.

Johan Buys Jul 5, 2024, 11:48 AM

Immigration seems to be a common thread all over. It was the real motivator behind Brexit. Yet immigrant numbers for UK for example reached 1.2m in 2023 about 50% higher than pre Brexit! The voters today gave Labor (very much not right wing) a landslide victory. Most voters probably feel hard done by. Youngsters are not living better than their parents, likely for the first time in centuries living standards (or perceptions thereof) are lower. Average first-time-home-buyer ages are increasing most places and rentals are unaffordable for many. Older voters are being told, near retirement, that they have to work 5y longer. Public health care is terrible in almost all places and private health care is unaffordable. People want CHANGE, and whether it is a fascist or a socialist that promises them change, they’ll vote for change.

Middle aged Mike Jul 5, 2024, 11:07 AM

Watching your native country being swarmed by vast numbers of foreign migrants, many with cultural and religious practises at odds with western liberal democratic values, doesn't sit equally we with everyone. Labelling anyone who isn't a mad fan of the prospect of becoming part of a minority in their native country or of biological males convicted of rape being incarcerated in a women's prison as being 'far right' is pretty much standard fare for the media I consume. Interestingly 'far left' and 'populist' barely ever make an appearance even in articles about mobs of communists rioting and burning things down in Paris.

Middle aged Mike Jul 5, 2024, 01:18 PM

Another element is that the centre of the left-right spectrum has moved substantially leftward over the last 20 years or so. Some views that would have been commonly held by classical liberals not long ago are now regarded as rightist.

wjoumaseplek Jul 5, 2024, 02:00 PM

Probably repeating other comments in this, however my own feeling is that the phenomenon has two main causes (among many others). Immigration, where it involves cultural/religious intolerance and failure to adapt, and the dogma of wokism, which is espoused by a very noisy minority which would have transvestites and not only transgenders given priority over normally recognised genders, the majority accused of racism when failing to conform to some loudly trumpeted but completely unverified minority view of "discrimination", and a completely skewed concept of freedom and human rights. The reaction is to be expected from what Richard Nixon termed the Silent Majority - they might not know what they want, but they sure as hell know what they don't want. So, they hope that by voting for an authoritarian government they can reverse the (equally authoritarian) system which would have the majority conform to the various minorities - impossible since they can't even agree with each other much of the time. This is the reaction which we saw in Italy and Germany in the 1930s. Sadly it seems that we have not learned from that, so a similar outcome may be expected. Not a happy outlook for democracy!

Michael Cinna Jul 5, 2024, 03:01 PM

"Far right"? Do you mean national populist? I have yet to see a working definition of what the term "Far Right" actually means? During my studies, far right has always meant neo-fascist, Falangist, Fascist - grouped together by the utter disdain of democratic principles and structures, along ethno-nationalist principles - i.e. a complete overthrow of the democratic system. Similarly to the far left, as oppose to SocDems (like the SPD in Germany), whom are perfectly willing to work within the democratic system to achieve socialist goals. Communists (across the spectrum) hate SocDems - Stalin called them proto-facists. But then again, anything right of Stalin is fascist. What was considered moderate, slightly right of center, views is now termed "alt-right" or far right. It literally has lost any meaning. As Orwell said "The word Fascism has now no meaning except in so far as it signifies ‘something not desirable". Stop using the Left/Right spectrum to describe highly complex political systems and ideologies. The BBC also posted an apology and retraction for stating Reform UK as far-right, as it fell well below their editorial standards. I think Daily Maverick should up theres. This coming from a former Trotskyite.

Simon Rhoades Jul 5, 2024, 03:19 PM

Perhaps bombing fewer countries in the Middle East and supporting fewer conflicts there might reduce the number of refugees? Worth a try, you'd think.

D'Esprit Dan Jul 5, 2024, 03:28 PM

I disagree with Tim on the age thing (not because I'm a grumpy ageing 50-something) because to me, it's much more about welfare. Not the welfare state, as such, but personal welfare (which to be fair has an element of age to it, but more from the perspective of uncertainty and angst that curmudgeonly bigotry). We've gone through a prolonged period now, from around the 2008 financial system collapse, where living standards have not improved, have been squeezed and in come cases declined quite markedly. As the world becomes more interlinked, it's bound to aggravate this. But its not new - the fear and loathing of 'the other' is well entrenched, certainly it has been for decades. Remember Galtieri in Argentina? Lost popularity so brought up the British bogey of the Falklands. When the Soviet Union collapsed, ethnic tensions and nationalisms were amongst the first things to manifest in those frightening, uncertain times - ethnic minorities across the ex-Soviet bloc copped it big time in places like Bulgaria, Romania, most brutally the Yugoslav collapse, and even in a genteel fashion, the Czechs and Slovaks turning up their noses at their forced union. We see it here parodically with the xenophobic violence (hello Gayton!) and accusations of the 'other' for keeping you down. Europe is in a financial mess, and it's easy for populists to rise to power by blaming that 'other' for all the ills of society.

Middle aged Mike Jul 5, 2024, 06:59 PM

Are you suggesting that millions of largely low income foreign people with an enormously disproportionate demand for social services have nothing to do with the native populations discomfort and that they are being conned?

D'Esprit Dan Jul 8, 2024, 08:33 AM

What I'm saying is that ethnic tensions are part and parcel of most societies where there is economic uncertainty or decline - it's not all about the UK or other European countries and their cynical and jaundiced view of non-European migrants. The examples I used explicitly included intra-European ethno-nationalism, as well as xenophobia here. And frankly, given that most Brits are too lazy to do the menial labour that Africans, Asians and East Europeans end up doing in the UK, they've only themselves to blame for it anyway. And that's coming from someone who is British by heritage, but African by birth - and choice.

Middle aged Mike Jul 8, 2024, 08:52 AM

While I agree with your points about ethnic tensions being a common issue you didn't address my question directly. A country like Sweden which in the 1990's was overwhelmingly native born now has a population where 1 in 5 are foreign born or first generation. With them has come hyper violent crime which was pretty much absent before and an enormously disproportionate allocation of the budgets for social services. Substantial parts of the big cities are now effectively no go areas for native born Swedes. I don't think anyone could accuse the Swedes of having had a history of racism but they are getting mighty jumpy about the prospect of another couple of decades of mas migration. Would you concede that at least some of the shift rightward has to with the negative consequences of rapid mass immigration of culturally dissimilar populations?

D'Esprit Dan Jul 8, 2024, 09:34 AM

Absolutely there is an element of what you're saying, although the reactions to people is different depending on their background. For instance, parts of Paris have been overrun by Albanian gangs, with drugs and prostitution and smuggling (including human smuggling) the key parts of it. But there is far less antipathy towards them (despite Albanians not integrating into French culture) than there is to Congolese or Moroccan migrants working in menial jobs who don't integrate. A massive influx like the one you describe in Sweden will always cause tensions, as it has done throughout history. What I also find fascinating, is how many Brits I spoke to here in SA leading up to Brexit, who decried having foreigners 'taking British jobs' whilst living it up in Africa. If Europe (or the US) wants to stem the flow of migrants to their countries they need to do a helluva lot more to level the playing fields - the playing fields that have been rigged in their favour for hundreds of years, creating the rich societies they have today. And to stress, my original point was that I disagreed with Tim that age is the key reason for shift towards the right in Europe - and I still hold that position: it's the economy, stupid, as James Carville said. It's also interesting to see that when the Right in France got too close to the gates of the Elysee, the left and moderates managed to boot them back to where they belong.

Michael Cinna Jul 7, 2024, 08:42 AM

Ethnic and nationalist tension was always there - the Soviets would just roll a T-72 into the market square.

D'Esprit Dan Jul 8, 2024, 08:34 AM

Absolutely - and it flared up the moment there was economic and political uncertainty. And still does.