There’s a lot of talk about coal – wet or otherwise – nuclear, gas and even renewables, in the rhetoric around energy, but the technology in the current system, which has most often kept load shedding at bay, is the burning of diesel.
Let’s say there may or may not be shenanigans going on with the supply of this liquid gold, but either way, this is not sustainable on any level. So what is the plan to make good on all the election promises to fix our country’s energy supply?
First up for inspection is the ANC’s Integrated Resource Plan, aka the IRP, “Or, as we like to call it, the RIP for renewable energy,” quips Céline.
“When looking at the different options, the IRP says some strange stuff…” Things like more gas than experts recommend, or projections on renewables that are based on outdated costs. South Africa’s energy industry and experts alike have been left baffled by the lack of evidence to back up the assumptions in the models.
But while this IRP includes a smaller percentage for renewables than previous IRPs, confusingly, it’s not the only ANC or government plan out there.
“The Presidential Climate Commission, set up by President Ramaphosa, for instance, recommends building 50 to 60 GW of renewables by 2030 – much more than the IRP.”
So, the ANC is not always singing from the same song sheet when it comes to how we should be generating energy – and the other political parties are just as unclear, some with real pie-in-the-sky ideas.
Except for the MK party, which is very clear that they want a reversal of the “unjust transition” and go all-in on fossil fuels and nuclear energy.
According to the executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission, Dr Crispian Olver, the disruptive force in the sector is renewables: “These costs are evolving very rapidly… in the last decade, wind tech, onshore wind, has come down by… 68%.
“Solar PV has come down by 88%. Battery prices have come down by 80%. So you’ve got to put learning curves into your models. In 30 years, these prices are going to drop dramatically.”
Talking to young people at a recent March for System Change, there is overwhelming support for renewables and concern for their future. While the old dinosaurs twiddle their thumbs and create value for their shareholders, the next generation has had enough and wants to be able to look forward to a brighter, cleaner future.
The impact of electricity cuts is wider than simply being able to power machines and devices; it’s also about safety and education. The future is coming faster than those vested interests in old, expensive, dirty technology would like.
It will come to an end either way – the question is, what state do we want the world to be in when it does? DM