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BRAIN REGAIN?

Gone for good — dwindling number of South African emigrants return

South Africans are not exactly flocking back home despite the allure of biltong and sunny skies, as Stats SA's Migration Profile Report reveals a decline in returnees over the past decade, with more opting for the UK, Australia and the US, leading to a notable shift in demographics and destinations.
Gone for good — dwindling number of South African emigrants return (Graphic: Lisa Nelson)

Grey skies, geopolitical uncertainty, the high cost of living and the exorbitant price of biltong abroad appear not to be strong enough pull factors for South Africa. 

Despite cheery anecdotal claims by estate agencies, tax practitioners and international moving companies that South Africans were returning to the country of their birth in droves, Stats SA’s evidence shows that far fewer Saffas are doing so.

In fact, the rising numbers of South Africans emigrating to the UK, Australia, and the US — long favoured destinations for South African émigrés — have helped boost those country’s populations by significant percentages. 

Stats SA’s long-awaited Migration Profile Report for South Africa: A Country Profile 2023 was finally released last week. 

Based on the latest census data, as well as data from household surveys, academic research, the World Bank, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Unesco, the SA Police Service and the departments of Home Affairs and Basic Education, the report was funded through the European Union’s Southern Africa Migration Management Project.

The country’s first migration report shows the brain drain is significant and long-lasting, as reflected in the declining numbers of South Africans returning to our shores in the past decade.

Rising numbers leaving

In 2000, 501 600 South African citizens resided abroad. By 2010, that number had increased to 743,807, and by 2020 — the latest available data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs — their numbers had reached 914, 901. 

Europe is the most appealing region for residence, attracting 39,3% of migrants. North America’s share is at 18.1%; Oceania 29.9%; Asia 2.2%, and Latin America and the Caribbean 0.3%.

Since 2000, the number of South Africans in the UK has grown from 136,720 to 247,336; Australia from 80,650 to 199,690; and the US from 65,171 to 117,321. New Zealand has almost tripled its SA emigrants, from 25,359 to 73,846 and Canada — popular with healthcare professionals and other highly skilled immigrants — from 36,949 to 48,093.

Gone for good

Between 2011 and 2022, a sharply declining number of South Africans came back to give the country another try. 

In 2011, 45,866 citizens returned (46.2% were male and 53.8% female), but by 2022, the returns had dropped to 27,983 (with an equal split between male and female). 

The distribution across population groups, ages and sex has shifted noticeably since 2011, when white South Africans comprised 56.6% of returnees, contrasting with black Africans at 32%.

In 2022, whites accounted for 52.9% of returnees, black Africans for 37.1%,  coloureds 4.9%, Indians/Asians 4.6%, and “other” for 1.9%. 

The report shows that by 2022, there was a notable shift in the composition of returnees, with white South Africans still constituting the largest group, but their proportion had decreased to 52.9%. The proportion of black Africans increased to 37.1% of the returnees, while coloureds remained relatively stable at 4.1%, Indians/Asians decreased slightly to 3.3% and “other” increased to 2.7%.

Where they are returning to is also shifting: In 2011, Gauteng saw the highest number of returnees — 17,684 (38.6% of the total) — but by 2022, that number had dwindled to 7,447, just 26.6% of the total. 

The Western Cape is the most popular destination, seeing a sharp rise in returnees (from 23.3% in 2011 to 35% in 2022), despite a slight decrease in absolute numbers.

The second part of the report dealing with the governance of migration will be released in early May. DM

Comments (10)

Jane Crankshaw Apr 2, 2024, 08:15 PM

My family have been in this country for more than 300yrs - a mixture of hard working Dutch, Scottish and Irish roots with no chance of getting a passport anywhere else, even if I wanted one! The whinging poms, boring Aussies & New Zealanders and uneducated MAGA supporters in the US have absolutely no appeal! Im staying and taking my chances - fighting against racist BEE policies and for better education for all. One thing about this country…it’s not boring! Going to be an interesting ride!

Tim Parsons Apr 2, 2024, 09:36 PM

This world of ours has never offered more access for migration, be it health, education, economics or political. Inevitable, the First World looks more attractive to the younger generations and we should not be surprised at the increase of migration across the continents. South Africa has a huge amount to offer, we migrated here nine years ago for the reasons of standard of living, health, climate, activities .. all of which you might consider frivolous, however, one of our best ever decisions. Yes, political uncertainty, crime, corruption and many things required by younger families are disincentives but, each category has worse comparative examples in the First World. Accept this article as merely statistics, which can be interpreted and presented to suit the messenger, know you have many advantages in this country which outweigh the disadvantages, in perceived Utopia.

avgas13@gmail.com Apr 3, 2024, 12:53 PM

"each category has worse comparative examples in the First World." Pffffft. Yeah, so? Sounds like you're insulated from the issues then, if you 'migrated' here, and are just here on a holiday to see the zoo. Maybe it's fun for you, a nice little exotic adventure, living in the dark for a few hours a day, and without tap water some days; but for me, for us, we're still trying to still make our lives, and make ends meet, and I will never be able to retire as I will not have the means to do so nor will 93% of my fellow South Africans. And all this, while the cities literally crumble around us from lack of maintenance. This country is in tatters, and people's toxic positivity is starting to irritate me. Ignoring the the crap that's been sprayed on the walls by calling it a Jackson Pollock is not the way. SA was once considered as a jewel of Africa but to me we're now just the ass hole. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, and I'd be glad to be, but I doubt it and I have my paraffin, my lamps, 200L water and 100kg of beans.

Tim Parsons Apr 2, 2024, 09:36 PM

This world of ours has never offered more access for migration, be it health, education, economics or political. Inevitable, the First World looks more attractive to the younger generations and we should not be surprised at the increase of migration across the continents. South Africa has a huge amount to offer, we migrated here nine years ago for the reasons of standard of living, health, climate, activities .. all of which you might consider frivolous, however, one of our best ever decisions. Yes, political uncertainty, crime, corruption and many things required by younger families are disincentives but, each category has worse comparative examples in the First World. Accept this article as merely statistics, which can be interpreted and presented to suit the messenger, know you have many advantages in this country which outweigh the disadvantages, in perceived Utopia.

Aluwani Nengovhela Apr 3, 2024, 12:05 AM

Gert, where have you been? I've been saying: most of SA's problems are at municipal level and to a lesser extent with SOEs. I am an ANC member but I will not be voting for the ANC during the local elections. I read that President Ramaphosa has drafted a minimum qualifications bill for local government..just not sure if it's been passed yet. The biggest problem was that most local government politicians were often trained school teachers who used their connections to SADTU to elevate themselves within the ANC. The case we have is that most of our mayors and municipal managers are primary school LO teachers... ? and they have to manage multi billion rand annual budgets. Recipe for disaster maybe?

William Stucke Apr 3, 2024, 02:04 PM

I'm glad to hear that you won't be voting for the ANC in the upcoming elections, Aluwani, but I have to ask you why you are still a member at all?

Aluwani Nengovhela Apr 3, 2024, 04:24 PM

I'm voting for the ANC during the upcoming national elections. I'm on the fence for the local elections in two years time (municipal and ward elections). I'm a member because they've significantly improved the quality of life in SA, and for that I'm forever grateful

Pieter Schoeman Apr 7, 2024, 08:31 PM

This just makes me sad, you should know as well as I do that you don't vote for a party because of loyalty. How would that ever be a good idea, you kind of break the very foundations of accountability if you think like that.

Aluwani Nengovhela Apr 3, 2024, 12:05 AM

Hi all, thank you for your insightful comments. Here's my response if you allow: - Shrinking tax base? No. Not going to happen. As long as Wits, UCT, etc exist and are producing graduates annually, this can never be. In fact, SARS just beat their collections target by R10bn. - BBBEE? Smart companies are finding ways to make this policy work for them. Think: bursaries; vendor financing wherein the firm raises additional funds by essentially selling the shares to a black partner, which then applies for funding with the shares as collateral; job creation (read: cheap labour via internships and learnerships), etc. BBBEE works for the brain's trust. - Expropriation without compensation? I'm almost certain all of us will die without having witnessed this expropriation. Why? The law says that the land will have to have been barren for a long time; secondly there'll have to be a sound basis for the state to expropriate the land; and thirdly, there'll have to be a sound reason why some form of compensation is unjustified. Justifying these three points is close to impossible because it's possible that I'll plant maize after hearing of a possible expropriation if my land was barren. Now what? Some form of compensation is warranted; but how much? "Well, I'm planting maize so that I can raise funds to build a residential complex on this land. Here's my business plan". What now? What's the value of my land? - Load shedding? My response is twofold: 1. The root cause of load shedding was Apartheid. Accept it. In 1999 when Eskom first notified the cabinet of the requirements of new powerplants, SA was in dire need of basic services across the board: basic housing, access to electricity, roads, schools, etc. A decision was made to delay these fiscus-draining projects (new powerplants) in a bid to improve the quality of life for every SA'n. They hoped that an agreement would be reached with private companies so that they could take on the construction projects...deals which never materialised. 2. President Ramaphosa's master stroke act of increasing the private citizens' electricity generating capacity is the primary reason why loadshedding will end much sooner than expected if one looks at the renewable projects being undertaken by mining and manufacturing companies, most of which are still under construction but we have already started witnessing a reduction in loadshedding due to those companies that have gone off-grid. -Quality of life overseas? A can of coke costs R30 in New York and I'm told it costs R40 in London. Hopefully you get where I'm going with this. It's R11 here ? - The next Zimbabwe? Hahaha. There are 4000 applications for mining rights pending. Car manufacturers are expanding their assembly plants. The world's biggest retailer, Walmart, bought Game and Makro. The world's second largest non-alcoholic beverage company, Pepsi co., recently bought Pioneer Foods. I can continue. Stop. Being. So. Negative. Please.

Pieter Schoeman Apr 7, 2024, 08:59 PM

Interesting response here is mine. 1. You have to remember that all those graduates are going to need someone to train them when they start working. You don't receive your electrical engineering degree and then immediately start building power stations. If you loose (or fired) your experienced people there is no one left to train the next generation. 2. I don't have any love for this country as a result of this, and thus I left. You cannot give people work or bursaries based on their race, how is this not obvious to you? 3. Agreed expropriation without compensation is never going to happen. The ANC is smart enough to realise it will destroy the economy but they have to continue talking about it so people vote for them. 4. Congrats you managed to build a narrative based around facts I agree with that somehow blames the policies of a government that was last in power 30 years ago instead of the one that was in power while it happened. I am frankly amazed. What gets me is this sentence "They hoped that an agreement would be reached". How is this not enormously irresponsible for a government. You don't get to avoid blame because you hoped for a different outcome. 5. And finally your point on the quality of life overseas. For someone that is 25 years old earning a bit over a R120000 per month is quite nice. I can buy many more cans of coke here than I could back in South Africa even though they may be a bit more expensive.

Benevolence ZA Apr 3, 2024, 01:14 AM

Two points: It’s hyperbole that SA migration “gives significant population boost” to hosting countries, e.g., 0.036% in UK is hardly significant. Secondly, I don’t see the significance of categorising per race group, it clarifies nothing except increasing the toxicity in this debate. Residing in a country where I never had to mention my race, I see how helpful this is to social cohesion.

Dietmar Horn Apr 3, 2024, 09:59 AM

Emigration/immigration - this is a very personal decision that everyone has to make based on their own life situation, perspective and possibilities. As far as the EU countries are concerned, the requirements for legal immigration are relatively high and depend primarily on the ability to integrate into the labor market. Anyone seeking a temporary stay without a work permit must provide proof of the necessary funds and sufficient health insurance. Some visitors are surprised that English is not the lingua franca on the continent; the willingness to learn the language is extremely helpful for successful integration. If I am asked about the opportunities and conditions in South Africa, I refer to the website of the South African embassy and the current travel advice/warnings from the Foreign Office in Berlin, this information corresponds very well with my personal experiences. Emigration is a challenge, more so for a family with a child than for unattached young people. Anyone who can afford it should first get to know the country of their choice through an intensive, short visit rather than just from hearsay.

Rod MacLeod Apr 3, 2024, 05:29 PM

The above does not apply to boat people, apparently.

Dietmar Horn Apr 4, 2024, 10:24 AM

My comment refers to legal (!) migration between South Africa and the EU. Of the people of South African origin in Europe that I know, not a single one made the journey in a rubber dinghy, paid $10,000 to smugglers, had their documents disappear, refused to cooperate with authorities, abused the right to asylum or pretended to be a war refugee.

Frans Flippo Apr 4, 2024, 07:38 AM

I moved to SA in 2016 on a critical skills visa and am a permanent resident, but will be leaving this year. People like me aren’t even included in these statistics. The thought of having to pay another cent in taxes to the gluttonous incompenents that supposedly run this country (not to even mention the city of Joburg where I’ve lived for nearly 8 years now) is enough to make me leave. But also the disregard for the environment (why is rubbish being burnt everywhere but nothing done about it — why is there no functioning public transport — why aren’t people driving big polluting SUVs and bakkies incentivised more to drive cleaner vehicles?), the crumbling of public services, the low standard of customer service in most companies, the list goes on. When I wrote to Home Affairs asking why my wife’s application for permanent residence still hadn’t been processed after three years, I got a defensive letter signed by Home Affairs minister Motsoaledi that amounted to “How dare you criticise the government” and “If you don’t like it, you are free to leave South Africa”. Thank you, minister, leave I will. And I’ll be taking my brain and my taxes with me, you short-sighted toad. We had so much hope when we moved here in 2016, but that hope is gone after having seen things go downhill ever since and seeing the complete lack of accountability of the government. I will miss the beautiful nature, the friendly people, the great weather, but that’s not enough to keep me here anymore.

Meshack.Sehaole@natref.com May 3, 2024, 02:51 PM

Sometimes I wish I had the intelligence of European.

eish Effedup May 10, 2024, 05:01 PM

Strange how stats SA knows where you emigrated to. The day I leave (soon) I won't tell this stupid government where I go. I would also never ever come back to this godforsaken land.