DA at the 2024 electoral crossroads — hoping for the best, but also vulnerable

One need only look at the state of our provinces to know who is doing a good job and who is not. For 30 years now the ANC have been in power, the fat cats have gotten fatter and the poor have gotten a lot poorer, prices have soared and a once exquisite country has now started to look like her neighbours, corrupted and broken. The Western Cape is an exception to that rule and for ONE reason only, this provence is run by the DEMOCRATIC ALLIANCE (The DA) and on a VERY small budget they have managed to keep it the most beautiful and well run Provence in South Africa. It has stayed that way because the people at the helm have faught tirelessly to stamp out corruption and to do what it can to keep it all running smoothly, providing much needed employment to her people and creating a worldclass background for tourism. There are 5 parties out of the 48 parties on the ballot paper that have enough clout to get in or to keep power in South Africa. These parties continue to rank high in voters minds as per the 2020 election results. These parties are the ANC (45%), the DA (21%) the EFF (10%), IFP (5%) and ActionSA (2%) and the remaining 17% of, in my opinion "wasted votes" were garnished to the 43 remaining parties with all gathering 1% or below in votes. The fight is really between the ANC (who has robbed the country blind), EFF (who will be no different) and the DA (whose endeavors and successes in the Western Cape can not be ignored). Looking at the realistic 3 options, there is no question where my mark will be on voters day. DA all the way. Its time for change. And that time is now.

Individuals are doing injustice to political parties when they take leading positions in those parties. The DA was an improvement by leaders amongst them Tony Leon from the Democratic party to Democratic Alliance which would be inclusive to the dynamics of post 1994. The hindsight rightfully so was that an alternative diverse party was crucial to avoid the pitfall of a majority party from getting drunk and corrupt by the power they think they hold. The DA as a party has lived to expectations. The DA has also kept it's discipline evident in the governance of the Western Cape. It still has to get an up and running crucial campaign to simplify what they stand for to the ordinary illiterate grant recipient in every corner. The ANC was embraced and endorsed by a referendum of a majority of white people because of its clear sound policies and it's inclusive leadership shown during the interim government prior to 1994 elections, hence the coined name rainbow nation. The committed leadership of that time made people fail to see the need for an alternative party. Individuals have turned the ANC into a shadow of its former self with an imminent slow death. The international powers are aware of our domestic issues and they approaching our vulnerability with disrespect and insensitivity to where we come from. They fail to understand how occupation and apartheid will always be a nightmare to anyone who experienced it. Back to the topic yes the DA has less work to do to run this country efficiently more especially around the land issue which is exploited by the radicals. The ANC needs to die and start again. They are still in government though and some departments are doing very well within their policies. The EFF has yet to be the official opposition not sure if they can parachute their way to the top, nothing is certain in politics.

South Africa is not stronger because of it's diversity (the Rainbow Nation happy-speak twaddle). It is divided and weak, falling to broad identifiers like race. The ANC successful exploits this. It foremost is a broad church welcoming all factions through simple patronage politics and then succeeds at an emotional level on race - grievances, entitlement, victimhood. The DA game-fully gets dragged down into the emotional slime pond at every opportunity. It is laughably easy for the EFF or the ANC to get a shoot-in-the-foot reaction from the DA, which wins every battle and still loses the war. The DA should long ago have moved away from un-winnable emotional politics and changed the SA conversation to their purely technocratic ability to change peoples lives, a better future. Change name to something like "REPAIR SA" (an brand-change event, opportunity in itself); focus on the things that count NOW more than ever; Shout it out: We'll fix the roads and ports, fix the lights and streets, fix the police, fix unemployment, etc etc. This is not difficult. The proof is there in the WC. And don't take the bait when the fightback dives to race or emotional issues. Simply say "yes, but let's get back to how you're going to repair the hospitals/postoffice/.... " I fear for the WC vote exactly because the DA sleepwalked into the Israel/Palestine thing, hurting their coloured vote. Foreign policy doesn't move the needle for ANC voters. Foot-shooting stupid!

I think that it is high time that the SA Communist Party, stood as the SACP and not on the ANC ticket.

While the DA might be diluted by smaller parties I think it could be an opportunity for the DA to prove its resilience. The hard shift from Mmusi Maimane to Steenhuizen was in response to the VF+ taking a lot of the DA's voters in 2019. While one can debate how smart this move was, the point is it proves that the DA is at least willing to change strategies and adapt with the voter to some extent. If BOSA, ActionSA, Rise or any of these smaller parties get a good showing I think that could make the DA change course to be more representative and in theory a more suitable opposition for SA in the long term.

"While its recent conference showed a large gathering of members who represented South Africa’s diversity, they voted into office a 10-person leadership that is overwhelmingly white. While this may be the result of a democratic process..." More like quasi-democratic. If I'm reading the delegate selection rules in their party constitution correctly, then up to 55% of the delegates are composed of current party officeholders (>54), MPs (87), MPLs (89) and local government councillors numbering five times the MPs and MPLs combined (880). Of the latter group, the number delegated from each province is determined by the voting pattern in the previous NATIONAL elections. This brings us to around 1110 delegates in this group, which, combined with reporting that "over 2000" delegates attended the previous elective conference, suggests that they were pretty close to that 55% maximum. The remaining 45% of delegates are elected by branches using some proportional representation system "approved by the Federal Council or FedEx". I've found no indication whether this is weighted by branch membership or also by the voting pattern in the previous elections. So it's not exactly a case of "one member, one vote". And while they may have good reasons for such a system, it also seems rather obvious that this elective and policy-making structure would be more likely to preserve the status quo than to position the party for growth in regions and demographics where it's underrepresented.

Stephen talks about a narrative and a DA-negative comment talks about building a story. How about this -" Once upon a,time, there was a great city called Johannesburg ..... (and finishing with) ... and that is why Cape Town is now the great city in South Africa".

DA is unfortunately perceived as a white party, therefore it is highly unlikely for it to attract significant non-white votes. It will have to find a way past that. One thing that should not be forgotten - the DA is every effective in local government - people vote 80% of the time based on their local experiences - this might just swing quite a significant number of votes the DA's way. This is their strength and one on which they should focus.

The DA is also going to lose votes for not holding the referendum on Cape independence, which they promised. Between Capexit, the PA and their Gaza image they are going to lose the Western Cape this year.

Unless the DA gets rid of its current national leadership, it will have no chance of improving it's position. Steenhuizen is probably the weakest and most ineffective leader the DA has ever had. He has steered the DA in a right wing direction. There are many voters who supported the ANC under Ramaphosa in the 2019 election in the hope that he would bring about change. He has not done so. Those voters will not vote again for the ANC, but they similarly will not vote for the DA for as long as it is a right wing and white-dominated party. If the party could change, it would have the potential to secure many, many ex-ANC votes.