SONA 2024 PREVIEW
Ramaphosa set to tout ANC’s successes since 1994, possibly announce SA’s election date
That today’s democratic South Africa was better than apartheid is set to be the thread through Thursday’s State of the Nation Address. Sona is the platform for President Cyril Ramaphosa to put his administration in a good light ahead of the high-stakes 2024 election.
Social grants, the National Student Financial Aid Scheme, the national minimum wage, free basic education and healthcare, housing and increased access to basic services like water, electricity and sewage. Expect all these to be ticked in a presidential touting of achievements not just of the past five years, but going back to 1994.
President Cyril Ramaphosa on Thursday evening will want to underscore the governing ANC’s track record right from the start of South Africa’s democracy which will be 30 years old on 27 April.
The upcoming elections – he may announce a date if the pattern ahead of the 2019 poll holds – are touted as a watershed moment that may see the ANC lose its majority.
Highlighting these social protection measures and benefits is in line with the tone set in the ANC January 8 Statement where the governing party set out its priorities for the year.
This focus in Sona also echoes the ANC styling itself as the defender of democratic gains, sans the party political ideological twists of regime-change victimhood.
Read more in Daily Maverick: With an eye on the polls, ANC fires salvo at ‘anti-transformation forces’
Priorities, whether for party or state, haven’t changed for some time, although the January 8 Statement on building the family was something of a curveball. But for years it’s all been about economic transformation and growth, jobs, social wage to protect against poverty, improved basic services, infrastructure investment, fighting crime and corruption and ending the rotational power cuts.
On the delivery front, Ramaphosa’s administration has prepared a five-year track record document. For much else, Statistics SA provides the numbers for Ramaphosa to weave the thread of post-1994 improvement.
The most recent Stats SA figures show that while one in five households depends on grants for survival, 89.3% have access to mains electricity, 88.7% access to piped water and 84.1% to sanitation.
The 1995 household survey showed only 33% of African households had access to water inside their homes, 22% had an inside flush toilet, and 51% used electricity for lighting. Stats for white and Indian households hovered around the 98% mark.
The catch is in the details. For example, access to sanitation in Limpopo is just 58.9%, with one in three households in that province still using wood, not electricity.
The election campaign trail will sidestep such specifics, as will Thursday’s Sona.
Ramaphosa won’t be able to simply gloss over South Africa’s deep-seated and deepening problems.
Rotational power cuts continue to shave off economic growth percentages, and the freight and road chaos has stymied economic recovery and job numbers.
Persistently stubborn unemployment stands at 41.2% on the expanded definition that includes those too disheartened to even try to find work.
Ramaphosa is determinedly glass-half-full. Presidential talking points have stayed the same – plans like the energy action plan, crisis committees for rail, freight and crime with private sector partnerships, and unfolding reforms.
Talking to this Sona has included appointments. In 2023 ex-Tshwane mayor, Presidency infrastructure chief Kgosientsho Ramokgopa was announced as electricity minister. In 2022 businessman Sipho Nkosi was announced to head the Presidency’s red tape reduction unit.
Throwing about numbers, like appointments, is meant to highlight a government at work – so and so many megawatts produced by so and so many independent power producers, so and so many passenger rail lines revitalised, so and so many rural Welisizwe bridges built.
Coincidentally, a total of R3.3-billion is set aside for this rural living condition improvement project that uses SANDF engineers and artisans to build 134 bridges; effectively R24.6-million per Welisizwe bridge.
Blackouts, joblessness remain, despite political sweet talk
Meanwhile, rotational power cuts continue even as megawatts come into the grid, largely by the private sector following the easing of regulations like abolishing the licensing threshold.
Business contributed 6,300MW in embedded power, according to Ramaphosa, speaking at the Mining Indaba. Already, 4,400MW in rooftop solar has been added since that subsidised initiative was announced in Sona 2023.
Again, Thursday’s Sona is set to gloss over such questions.
The bottom line? Rolling power cuts show no sign of ending on Eskom’s forecast, regardless of politicians’ sweet talk. Unemployment is stubbornly high despite a series of initiatives like the presidential employment stimulus and presidential youth employment programme.
Against this backdrop, South Africa’s increasing deficit squeezes a national purse that is already frayed as debt interest instalments are the fastest rising budget allocation. Little remains in the public purse for things like the much talked about basic income grant (BIG).
In the 2023 Sona, Ramaphosa talked of “work under way to develop a mechanism for targeted income support for the most vulnerable, within our fiscal constraints”. Subsequently, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana linked a BIG to a “comprehensive review” of the social security system.
Given the impact of social grants paid to some 19 million South Africans, in what the governing ANC repeatedly describes as one of its successes, Ramaphosa as party president told the recent ANC NEC, “Discussions should continue about what we call basic income grant”.
As country president, in Thursday’s Sona Ramaphosa is set to bolster the upbeat rhetoric with a dose of the aspirational. The reality check comes later in February when Godongwana delivers the Budget, with possibly further bailouts for state-owned enterprises and – as hinted at in October’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement – tax increases.
Perhaps on Thursday an election date will be announced. But whatever the case, the 2024 Sona will be Ramaphosa’s stump speech. DM
It is important for ANC to start embracing free market policies. Capitalism is not a favourite amongst many people. But it is advisable for our ruling elites to start developing an African type of capitalist development linked to other capitalist democracies in Asia, Europe and the Americas. Communism is lovely but it has never worked especially for guys like me who are not part of the elite. Please ANC stop with the anti-west tilt
C
In the same way that Apartheid prevented growth and harmed people,
The ANCs BBEEE and labor law policies have pushed SA into a downward economic and social spiral. Trying to force racism, through policy, does not work – they fought against it and now they fight for it. We have seen companies fail, talented people pouring out of the country and a total service failure due to incompetent people being handed a job on a platter and entitlement allowing them to sit back and count their shoes instead of working. Reverse those policies, make SA a competitive country and the money will flow.
Well said Jennifer.
It’s still apartheid, just with different branding
Why bother to even listen to Ramaphosa’s drivel?
Well, I for one certainly won’t be wasting my time.
Neither will I. It’s going to be the first time that I won’t because I always hoped that I’d at least see some worth in listening to it. But just knowing the BS that’s going to spout out of his mouth already is reason enough to watch a Netflix movie instead.
It would be a great message if everyone ignored this year’s SONA and none of the media reported on it.
But that would never happen!
absolutely agree. So many better things to do like mow the lawn, walk the dog, sunset glass of wine – rather than getting oneself angry by constant self glorifying rhetoric and lies
absolutely agree. So many better things to do like mow the lawn, walk the dog, sunset glass of wine – rather than getting oneself angry by constant self glorifying rhetoric and lies
Haven’t done so for some years….no point….. I will read the summary in the largely tame Press
Agreed. I stopped listening to SONA during the Zuma era.
The ANC SONA speech is just lies, lies, lies….
“State of the nation”
Cyril could summarize his entire speech into 2 words.
“We’re fucked!”
Absolutely! Spot on.
OUTA’s Wayne Duvenage, writing on this platform, recently suggested that people should change their social media statuses to “Not Watching SONA” on the day. An appropriate hashtag might even take off: #NotWatchingSONA.
The world’s shortest speech.
A week or two ago DM (I think – I kept the graphic without recording its source) published a graphic showing that since about 1990 (read “since the ANC came to power”) the income of the top 10% of South Africans (read “largely ANC connected persons”) has increased at a faster rate than ever before, and is currently as high as it has ever been, but the income of the bottom 50% (read “largely black South Africans who the ANC was supposed to lift out of poverty”) has decreased faster than at any previous time, and now sits well below where it ever was before. If anything shows the dismal failure of the ANC, and that whatever Cyril Ramaphosa claims as ANC achievements is pure electioneering delusion, this is it.
Google IMF dot ORG Geoff and search for “Six Charts Explain South Africa’s Inequality” …….
Groete,
Stef
This is so typical… Gloss of the myriad of monumental failures of the ANC, bringing the country to it’s knees. “But don’t worry. We have a 5-year plan”. Just stop it, Cyril. Just stop. The ANC is incapable of running a country. Admit defeat and disappear into the shadows from when you came!!
Should be a short speech then.
With Ramaphosa, as per all the ANC cadres, it’s always about party first at the cost of the people.
The ANC’s should rather reflect on the metrics of debt to GPD, mining export collapse, the number of indigent on SASSA grants and the no growth economy.
Everything with the ANC is done for the benefit of ANC alone always at the expense of SA.
The ANC has no success story to tell.
Rasho7ld be called Jack…. As in ‘ I am all right, Jack’
As usual, I won’t be watching.
The ANC wishes there was a pandemic or any excuse to delay this election.
Yip, same old drivel. One thing all politicians need to learn is by saying something does not mean it will happen; you need a team that can implement it. Its easy to have ideas and policies, but for goodness sake, get people who can, deliver on them properly. Oh wait, this is the ANC!!
Unfortunately it is the electorate that need to learn that what politicians say amounts to nothing.
We have been very successful at giving away other people’s money, claims our President. Yes indeed, the ANC has proved to be a wonderful “sausage-making” enterprise – the problem is that each year billions of rands of prime beef is fed in one end – courtesy of the long-suffering tax payers – but only a dribble of gristle, fat and offal oozes the other end, after the corrupt, incompetent ANC cadres have siphoned off the cream.
Some success story that, Mr President!! Anybody, absolutely anybody could have done immeasurably better – you really scraped the bottom of a rat-infested pork-barrel when you put together the band of incompetent, miscreants, labelled as the ANC; only the EFF are as miserable and incompetent – incompetent at everything, that is, except self-enrichment.
Not to be too Bernard Woolley but cream isn’t a product of meat processing. Cream can’t rise out of prime beef. One of my favourites things about Yes Minister – catching mixed metaphors.
Given that there are very few successes of his tenure looking for the post 1994 ones will find more.
Ramaphosa’s presentation of the ANC’s version of the SONA is going to be a sickening spectacle. Sickening because it will support (and boast of), major ANC accomplishments which will, unfortunately, be believed by far too many SA citizens. What Ramaphosa will gloss over is the near total collapse of Transnet and the massive and escalating damage this is doing to the country. The disastrous neglect by Mantashe’s department in the mining and exploration of our huge mineral wealth reserves will probably be covered by false ‘work-in-progress’ claims that the ANC has embarked on. The collapse of the Post Office will probably not get a mention and Eskom will be featured as another positive work-in-progress in the face of more lies about the end of load shedding being imminent. Blade Mzinande’s alleged receipt of kickbacks from suppliers to his department will be buried under the successes (???) in higher education. Going to be intersting to observe just how much bullshit is going to emerge in this SONA.
Several buckets- full….. hope City Hall has sufficient!
I’ll remove a toe with a side cutter before I waste any time listening to this slimy confidence trickster telling sugary lies.
Thank you for making me laugh out loud this morning… classic comment 🙏🏼🤣
Ramaphosa and the ANC will obviously talk about 30 of what they’ve done – because he has zero positive track record to fall back on Deputy President and President and opposition parties need to get voters thinking about that. Not what the original ANC government did from 1994 to around 2006, when they did achieve quite a bit (although could have done so much more, but the politics of the day scared them off). It must be hammered home, over and over again, that this ANC has achieved nothing. Done nothing: it has simply put corruption and misery on steroids. Force votes to confront that reality, and then offer them proper alternatives, and most importantly – hope, something the ANC has stolen from most of us as well.
Should be a short speech.
When Ramaphosa replaced the Zoom kleptotrain we had hope that the political situation would improve in SA, now we all know he is a slimy weasel, even more inept than his predecessor, yet all they need to do is supply a t-shirt and a KFC budget meal and they will get the barely educated masses to vote for them, they still need more time at the trough to continue their stealing, it’s gonna become a feeding frenzy because the loot is running dry.
“…ANC’s successes …”
WTF?? Successes? Pffft! Name one.
(BTW, nothing succeeds like a budgie without a beak.)
sell the ANC at any price get out
Vote DA
Only a fool will believe that today’s SA is better than the previous one. It’s just as bad, often even worse!
“Given the impact of social grants paid to some 19 million South Africans, in what the governing ANC repeatedly describes as one of its successes…”
A success? It means that too many people do not have access to a job!
As always there will not be a press conference. As far as I remember the President has never once in four years been open for questions from the journalists.
Irrespective of what metrics are presented , this is not like zero based budgeting . List what was done since 1994 , and then score your perceived ” achievements ” out of 10 vs. what could have been done by competent , honest and focused people who’s prime motive was not self enrichment at the cost of all , while the country went down the tubes . The most surprising part is they really believe their own B.S and pat themselves on the head , completely obvious of what is happening in reality . Only today the headline was R One Trillion in foreign investment left the country.
Spot on. I wish interviewers, when interviewing upper-level government officials or employees, would ask them what is perhaps *the* most pertinent and revealing question: “In your position as XYZ and as a servant of the people, do you think you are doing a good job?”
I expect that upwards of 90% will not only answer with a very confident “Yes!” but they will keep insisting that they are doing a great job, even after they have been presented with a mass of evidence that clearly indicates the contrary. Excuses, scapegoats, evasions, and deflections of the most florid kind will be marshalled instead of any recognition, let alone acknowledgement, of failure.
Because the Dunning-Kruger is just too strong with these crooks and clowns.
What about the findings [and recommendations] contained in the 5000+ pages of the Zondo commission report.
Anyone still remember?
It was noteworthy but I suspect that it will not be mentioned “to tout ANC’s successes since 1994”.