ROAD TO 2024 ELECTIONS
Zuma’s ANC repudiation unlikely to have a significant impact on national poll — analysts
Former president Jacob Zuma’s avowal not to vote for the ANC in next year’s elections has caused a stir, but is unlikely to make as big an impact as he thinks, political analysts say.
Former president Jacob Zuma climbed on to a stage at the YMCA in Orlando West, Soweto, on Saturday, and with his daughter at his side, repudiated the African National Congress (ANC) in a room packed with supporters, members of the public and the media.
Zuma declared that he would not vote or campaign for the ANC, a party he has been a member of for 62 years, in next year’s general elections. Instead, the corruption-accused former president threw his weight behind the newly formed Umkhonto We Sizwe party.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma (centre) announces the formation of a new political party in Soweto on 16 December 2023. (Photo: EPA-EFE / Kim Ludbrook)
While Zuma’s announcement may have implications for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal, where the former president enjoys widespread support and had been expected to campaign for the party in 2024, analysts said it would not have a significant impact on the greater political landscape.
Saturday’s media briefing on the former president’s next political move came just hours after President Cyril Ramaphosa called for unity among ANC members after several public disputes.
Zuma said he could not in good conscience support a party that, under the administration of a leader with “un-ANC-like behaviour”, was no longer an organisation he recognised.
Read more in Daily Maverick: With love from Zuma — former president ditches ANC in upcoming elections, vows ‘total liberation’
“I have decided that I cannot and will not campaign for the ANC of Ramaphosa. It is not the ANC I joined. It would be a betrayal to campaign for the ANC of Ramaphosa. My conscience will not allow that,” Zuma said.
In the same breath, he claimed that he would remain a loyal member of the ruling party.
Saying his latest gambit was a bid to rescue the ANC from the wrong hands, Zuma called on all South Africans, including members of the ANC, to cast their votes for the Umkhonto We Sizwe party.
Grudges and power struggles
Dale McKinley, a political analyst for the International Labour, Research and Information Group, said Zuma’s disavowal of the ANC was a grudge against Ramaphosa that was playing out in the greater political landscape.
“This is about a grievance. He has a grudge and he has a grudge against the Ramaphosa faction in particular. So what he’s doing is he’s hedging his bets,” McKinley said.
His view was shared by political analyst Dr Metji Makgoba, who said Zuma was wounded and had a personal dispute with Ramaphosa. Makgoba added that the former president was trying to cause conflict in the ANC to regain political legitimacy.
“Zuma knows that any consequences for the ANC will affect Ramaphosa’s legitimacy directly. Both Ramaphosa and Zuma have been trying to separate themselves from each other. Ramaphosa feels Zuma represents nine wasted years and Zuma believes Ramaphosa is a proponent of white supremacy. But we must not lose sight that they are both cut from the same cloth. Both of them presided over a broken ANC and both of them made it worse,” Makgoba said.
Touching on Zuma’s contradictory statement about not resigning from the ANC, but taking his support elsewhere, McKinley said Zuma wanted to give the party a hard time and cost it votes.
“The endgame of this is hard to see, but clearly he seems to think that this and a few other things will then turn the ANC in his favour, and at some point, he’s going to come back and recapture the ANC,” McKinley said.
‘Counterrevolutionary’
The ANC in KZN will hold a media briefing on Monday to discuss Zuma’s move. The party won 54.22% of the provincial vote in 2019 and opposition parties are campaigning to govern the province through a coalition after next year’s elections.
Daily Maverick was unable to reach ANC KZN spokesperson Mafika Mndebele on Sunday, but he told Newzroom Afrika the party believed Zuma’s actions were “counterrevolutionary” and aimed at “swaying” voters away from “home”.
“As the ANC in KZN, we note what President Jacob Zuma said. The ANC KZN still holds President Zuma in high regard as one of the leaders of the movement. But what we say is that what has been said is an attempt to sway people from voting for the ANC. We call on all our members to close ranks … not to follow individuals, but to show their allegiance to the ANC.
“No loyal cadre of the ANC must tell people not to vote for the ANC, because doing so will be counterrevolutionary,” Mndebele said.
ANC supporters in KZN appeared divided by Zuma’s decision, with some believing the ANC could now define itself without his shadow hanging over the party. Others expressed support for what they described as “strong anti-Ramaphosa action”.
Read more in Daily Maverick: KZN ANC rejects poll suggesting loss to IFP-DA coalition next year
Attempts for comment from Nkosenhle Shezi, the former spokesperson of the pro-Zuma Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction of the ANC, were unsuccessful on Sunday.
But other RET insiders told Daily Maverick the Umkhonto We Sizwe party had been recruiting for several months from the RET forces and they had received behind-the-scenes support and endorsements from the former president.
Read more in Daily Maverick: ANC hopes to capitalise on Zuma’s KZN popularity to turn back the political tide and win over voters
A pro-Zuma leader in the Harry Gwala Region, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said: “We had expected this a long time ago… It was long overdue. During Zuma’s time, the ANC was very popular with the people. There were jobs; people were eating. Even people on the ground were getting jobs through the Expanded Public Works Programme. Now, all of that has dried up and we have a wishy-washy leadership which seems to have been captured.”
Zuma, who was once a powerful and popular figure in KZN, has spent the past few months at his Nkandla homestead, doing nothing noteworthy apart from attending funerals and other functions.
In July 2023, the Constitutional Court upheld the ruling that he should go back to prison to complete his 15-month sentence for contempt of court. However, on the eve of his admission to the Estcourt Correctional Centre Ramaphosa granted Zuma, as well as thousands of other inmates, remission.
Chances of success
McKinley said that a party established five months before the elections was unlikely to succeed in the national political arena.
He said that with Zuma’s backing, the Umkhonto We Sizwe party was likely to get a small percentage of the vote, particularly in KZN, but would not make much impact nationally.
“Zuma is not popular across the country. He may have a certain degree of loyalty amongst certain elements and particularly in KZN, but beyond that, I don’t see a particular threat,” McKinley said.
Professor Musa Xula, a retired academic who is based in KZN, said Zuma’s move could free the ANC from some of its political deadweight.
“The ANC is lucky. All of its opponents are generally publicly discredited individuals,” Xulu said.
Zakhele Ndlovu, a senior politics lecturer at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said it was still too early to determine whether Zuma’s latest move was viable or a complete blunder on the part of the 82-year-old ANC stalwart.
“We know that Zuma still enjoys some support, especially in KZN, but we don’t know whether this support is still as huge as when he was the president of the ANC and of the country. I think this is a big gamble on his part.
“Zuma enjoyed the support of many Zulus because he was the first Zulu president after Albert Luthuli — before that, the ANC was dominated by Xhosa leaders — and he was a traditionalist. The question is, does he still have that support? We saw before [the ANC’s 2017 Nasrec conference] when he urged his supporters to vote for Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, but ANC KZN did not support this call,” Ndlovu said.
“I think people who will support Msholozi will be a small minority within the ANC in KZN, people who believe that they are marginalised and ostracised within the organisation. He will not attract people from the Inkatha Freedom Party or the Economic Freedom Fighters. I think nationally he and his party will not garner anything above 2% of the vote and in KZN I don’t think he will get anything above 5%.”
Case for expulsion
In his statement, Zuma claimed that the lack of discipline in the current ANC was one of the reasons he had lost faith in the organisation. However, questions have arisen about whether his public disavowal of the ANC was not itself ill-discipline.
Zuma’s support of the fledgling party contravenes the ANC’s constitution, which lists joining or supporting a political organisation or party not aligned with the ANC as an act of misconduct, which can lead to disciplinary proceedings and, possibly, expulsion.
Makgoba said Zuma was trying to push the ANC into a corner and force the ruling party to expel him, thereby causing further conflict in an already fractured party. However, Makgoba doesn’t believe the ANC will expel the former president, adding that the party knows it is just another tactic to discredit Ramaphosa.
On Saturday, Zuma was tight-lipped about the extent of his involvement in the new party, claiming his sole role was as a campaigner and voter.
When asked whether he would throw his hat into the ring for a leadership position in the party, he said the party’s leadership structures would be announced in the coming months.
ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula has said the ANC intends to take legal action against the Umkhonto We Sizwe party as the ANC believes that anyone who registers the name without the party’s approval is in violation of trademark laws. DM
“There were jobs; people were eating. Even people on the ground were getting jobs through the Expanded Public Works Programme. Now, all of that has dried up and we have a wishy-washy leadership which seems to have been captured.” – What fiction. Zuma ensured all institutions holding politicians accountable were dismantled, he is the root of the rot in the ANC. Doubt this party will take off, only those who would benifit from it will vote for it. No sane citizen will entrust SA to Zuma, we know where that leads.
The root of the rot is the day when the NP walked out of the GNU. The moment the ANC had free reign, the looting started. Mandela gave Mbeki the levers of power whilst drinking tea. Mbeki signed the first big corruption: Buying arms instead of power stations and Mbeki gave us Zuma after 300, 000 AIDS deaths. Zuma just carried on and Ramaphosa was his deputy for more than 4 years. If anybody except Ramaphosa believes that he Ramaphosa, was there awaiting his time to clean up the RSA government that “anybody” is stupid beyond belief. Ramaphosa’s mantra always was to unify the ANC rather than to govern RSA for the better of ALL. SBTW the latter is his job as president.
That said 2% in KZN away from the ANC may well be a significant 2%. Go Zuma, tear the ANC.
Exactly! I agree 100%.
I think it is unnecessary and rude to categorize people by calling them stupid or using any other derogatory description. By the way I voted for Ramaphosa not because I thought he would “clean up” but because if the ANC had got less than 50% of the votes they may have formed a coalition government with the EFF which could only be a bad thing with Juliarse as kingmaker. Alternative candidates like Skosasana and her ilk, would surely also have done much harm had they been elected. Cyril is symptomatic of all that is wrong with the ANC and the sooner SA sees the back of him and his useless party the better. Mr Mandela is surely spinning in his grave.
This strikes to the core of what Zuma is up to. A lot of people grasp the extent to which an ANC + EFF + … forming the KleptocratKronieKoalition is the worst outcome and are prepared to enter into tactical “lesser evil” voting and negotiations on that basis. Zuma has a faction within the ANC who a clamouring for such a coalition. He has realized that as things stand the ANC will drop to less the 50% so he is hell bent on getting the KKK together.
There are a lot of moving parts and remember provinces matter. If the ANC takes the EC but must form a coalition with EFF to keep Limpopo then the calculus for the ANC is to jettison working with Good or UDM or ActionSA or whoever else is on this sort of clean up SA track.
Wait for the 10th of February EFF manifesto launch. It’s likely that JZ will be there too as a coalition partner.
That 2% nationally and 5% in KZN is not a huge number, but could be highly significant. A small number of EFF voters in KZN may jump to the new party (UWS?). I think that a lot of voters will not change parties, but just not vote. Which could also be significant.
“Zuma said he could not in good conscience support a party that, under the administration of a leader with “un-ANC-like behaviour”, was no longer an organisation he recognised.” The bald-faced gaslighting hypocrisy is approaching Donald Trump levels here. Zuma is the reason the party is no longer recognisable as the ANC of Mandela, Tambo et al.
Maybe, just maybe, this development can have a positive result for the IFP, with the ANC destroying the…ANC!
Fact vs Fiction. You just cannot make this sh*t up.
What a joke, can one explain why a political party in todays age and time needs to portray itself as a military movement and as “MK”, this is so old fashioned, the revolution is long past, but clearly not so for some.
Secondly he speaks as if he had nothing to do with the rot in the ANC, what world does this man live in.
I suppose the only good here is it’s another wake-up call to the ANC, fix your mess as it’s impacting the nation and what’s in governing a broken nation.
And finally, let all the likeminded “league of rot” gather under one umbrella, at least once and for all we’ll all know who they are, and where we stand.
I love the top graphic – it looks like a crocodile, which is so appropriate!
Incorrect analysis; this is not fundamentally a grudge against Ramaphosa, it is rather a case of the ANC trying to cleanse itself of a deeply corrupt past, that is uncomfortably still lingering around, a corrupt past in which Zuma was entirely comfortable in, that he largely espoused, benefitted from, and was the puppeteer in chief of.
Zuma, his entire clan and family, now need to be properly tried for their roles in the July 2021 treasonous insurrection – Ramaphosa can no longer hide behind his overriding desire to hold the ANC together – Zuma himself has now fractured “his ANC”, and Ramaphosa must now move quickly and decisively to drive home the difference between “Zuma’s ANC”, and how Ramaphosa would like the ANC to develop.
Keep dreaming Jon ….
Jon I don’t believe the ANC has the ability or will to miraculously develop into an ethical and caring institution. Instead we could well see fraud and corruption increase as the cadres grab all they can while they can.
“it is rather a case of the ANC trying to cleanse itself of a deeply corrupt past”
What utter nonsense. Point at anything that’s been done in the last 5 years that supports that. The ANC steals more under the current presidential stage prop than they were able to under Zuma.
“Presidential stage prop”. I’m totally stealing this. I mean, we are talking about the ANC …
He is a clown on note. Why give him or others of his ilk any airtime? That he still has, reportedly, some support, is a shameful indictment on South Africa.
Zuma seems under the impression that you can be ‘half- pregnant’……senile and largely unwanted!
This is the essence of Zuma. Sell your country to an Indian family for cash returns and then assist that family to ruin the economy. When that doesn’t work, dump your party like a piece of rotten meat but tell everybody you’ll remain loyal just in case the rotten meat trick doesn’t pan out. And Ramaphosa? This timid mouse of a man still shouts “ANC unity ” in the face of widespread and irreversible fracturing of the party. There is not a statesman in the whole ANC that could run a country. But plenty who are doing a great job of destroying it,
What a sick joke! Zuma has NO conscious – he is just a rapacious and corrupt thieving machine, who most conveniently blots out the enormous and leading role he had in State Capture etc. As for Cyril the spineless and useless, he is no better as he has also enormously contributed to the decline of this country and was in cahoots with Zuma as his deputy all along. SA needs needs salvation from this vile and parasitic anc!!!
Zuma – a conscience. An Oxymoron methinks. This new party is good news. It will reduce ANC votes. The question is which coalition will rule post 2024?
This is a clear indication that the ANC is gradually dis-intergrating,The beginning of the end of the ruling party,the end is nigh…
I wish the Media would call Zuma for what he is, “Disgraced Former President”!
I prefer the factually correct “the 81y old father of plus minus 21 former prisoner Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma”
It doesn’t roll off the tongue like $&%¥ kant but it works for me
I wish the Media would call Zuma for what he is, “Disgraced Former President”!
When is this old clown going to give us the numbers of … listen properly… ANC membas again? I pi**ed myself laughing everytime I heard him fumbling away at it. He is so much funnier than Trevor Noah.
Could you imagine Zuma hosting the American Tonight show.
It’s rather like watching a bunch of squabbling children in a playground, fighting over possession of a toy they’ve already broken. The needs of the country are completely irrelevant to this ANC/RET/EFF/MKHONTO…. etc. It’s about “Give it to me, it’s mine!” Will the adults please step forward convincingly and stop this sideshow?
Unfortunately, these are the adults.
Anything close to 2% nationally would be a huge win for JZ and this MK party, that would be a decent number of high-earning seats in parliament for a party that hasn’t expressed anything- in my opinion, that would justify not just joining one of the existing parties with similar objectives.
There was more left to steal when creature was in charge. The ANC is doing worse for it’s chosen ones because the trough of gravy can’t be filled fast enough for everyone to get a good long slurp.
It’s an iron law of history that the revolution always eats its own children.
So South Africa’s former, right wing, corrupt, populist president, breaks off to form what exactly?
Danger is if it turns out to be a Zulu, nationalist party, led by a geriatric who is able to rave anti-immigrant, anti Xhosa and anti-everyone else speeches to inflame mobs, like the Durban riots, everywhere there are significant Zulu populations living together.
They might not believe in a land of milk and honey for all, but do believe in smash and grab while you can. And a bit of knobkerrie to the head of “others” is fun.
Of course I could be wrong, and it might be a party of peace, love and braais around the fire pools for everyone.
Is it possible this new party could attract IFP voters?
Will be interesting to see if Voters have a change of heart ❤️ for the ANC or not.
There are 939 membas in the MK. No… listen proppa lie. Seveenteen hundrid and sixty thousand million and five thousand and eight… ahh, forget it!
This has nothing to do with national elections. Zuma is planning a radical left coup in KZN where he and all his corruption compromised political base Gumede (eThekwini), Ndobe (Harry Gwala) Mahlaba (Newcastle) et al can hunker down behind an equally compromised SAPS and NPA. Unrestricted control of Durban and Richards Bay ports will be the licence to refill the coffers of the Zuma / Mabuza mafia.
If you think KZN and Durban are in a chronic state of decline now – you ain’t seen nothing yet😖
Sort of …
I agree that the goal isn’t to “win” the national elections but rather to drive a “coup” to squeeze the ANC into a KKK (kleptocratickronykoalition). The KZN part is significant the ANC is on track to losing in KZN and Zuma does not want a DA-IFP + …. coalition heading up KZN. So he needs to squeeze in the means for ANC + EFF + MK + … control of KZN. However for this to work the situation needs to top out in general ANC calculus – it needs to be better for the ANC to align itself with corruption than with a coalition that is transitioning power. Other provinces and the overall national outcome does matter here.
Aesop For Children:
A Fox, swimming across a river, was barely able to reach the bank, where he lay bruised and exhausted from his struggle with the swift current. Soon a swarm of blood-sucking flies settled on him; but he lay quietly, still too weak to run away from them.
A Hedgehog happened by. “Let me drive the flies away,” he said kindly.
“No, no!” exclaimed the Fox, “do not disturb them! They have taken all they can hold. If you drive them away, another greedy swarm will come and take the little blood I have left.”
Moral
Better to leave the ANC government in place. They are FAT from what they have stolen from the pee pool (pee pool; what Malema calls the the uneducated masses). If a new party should come into power, they will be hungry and steal even more!
Nothing here about the good governance of a country, economic management or services and welfare. It’s party politics, the maintenance of a discredited ideology, the struggle for corrupt power and tribalism.
The analysts are missing the essential point here.
Zuma believes the ANC will drop to below a majority (201 seats) and that a unity government of some form will need to be formed. The worst outcome for South Africa is not the ANC “winning” or the ANC being booted to the opposition benches but rather the ANC and EFF and a comportment of fascists and crooks cobbling to form a government.
What Zuma is doing is positioning himself for is to prevent an ANC and centrist party coalition. He is gambling on the ANC tolerating his nonsense and then dropping in vote share either nationally or in some provinces to the point at which a “nationalist” or “patriotic” or whatnot coalition becomes a path with which to extract power.
It doesn’t matter whether his vote and announcement costs the ANC votes or not – if his faction remains in the ANC they will be clamouring for the ANC to go the way of nationalist coalition – what matters is that he is edging the organization into the recapture he wants.
The only move Ramaphosa has to avoid catastrophe for himself is to go on the offensive against Zuma’s movement and factor in post election negotiations to secure supply and confidence. This however would mean, pausing NHI bill and quite a few other things.
I read the comments with great interest. We all have a particular view on the matter, depending on the background we come from. For me the situation is the culmination of multiple challenges the ANC failed to address:
– From the start they were not equipped to rule and made no effort to recruit and train leaders to run the country. When liberation fighters are asked to run a country, it is as useful as asking the wolf to guard the sheep.
– The inability to deal with power lead to systemic corruption which, over time consumed the entire ANC and government to the point of almost no return.
-Along the road, during the past 30 years, there were numerous occasions where corruption, poor governance and bad policy were highlighted to both the ANC and the government. Apart from frequent promises from the ANC leadership to correct the ship, nothing was done about it.
– The reality is that this situation led to mindset in the ANC that they are untouchable, and they can do what they like. Arrogance, contempt for voters, the rule of law, judiciary and the constitution took over.
– By now the rot has reached the core – you can’t find a single uncompromised cadre in an important position, which means that you can’t correct the organization.
– The idea of cleaning up the ANC is a fallacy – it is beyond repair, and they know it.
– In my view the strategy is to keep the party together to have a better chance to stay out of jail. This can only happen if the inevitable is delayed long enough to destroy evidence and cadres don’t turn against each other. This is why unity is more important than the interest of SA and why, despite all what JZ has done, the ANC will not turn against him. He knows too much about most of them.
– JZ knows he has run out of runway with the judiciary on the corruption charges. This last act of his is nothing more than judging how much he can rely on the ANC going forward on the legal side. He is starting to call their bluff, and this is only the first one. This has nothing to do with JZ and his love for the ANC; it is all about JZ wanting to stay out of jail, and he wants the ANC to facilitate that. His support in return for no prosecution.
Who cares who he votes for. He should be in prison.
It’s tough out there
Talk about “the pot calling the kettle black”!
Look who is talking! What a hypocrite😠
2% max? Is that an accurate estimate of the number of corrupt civil servants who would welcome an RET-leaning government?
My guess is that the risk is significantly higher,
Words have power!
… remember he was released from jail because he was ‘TERMINALLY ill’ …
1. mentally ill?
2. physically ill?
Time for some ‘wishfull thinking’?
Words have power!
… remember he was released from jail because he was ‘TERMINALLY ill’ …
1. mentally ill?
2. physically ill?
Time for some ‘wishfull thinking’?
It will be interesting to see the impact this development has but Zuma waited too late to make this move and it’s probably going to fail
Here’s a thought – perhaps this is a desperate ploy by the ANC to get more votes for their party by having voters vote for this new party, when in actual fact this new party is part of the ANC. Wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Here’s a thought – perhaps this is a desperate ploy by the ANC to get more votes for their party by having voters vote for this new party, when in actual fact this new party is part of the ANC. Wouldn’t surprise me at all.
When Zuma faced jail after he was suspended as vice president, by Mbeki, he was desperate to avert jail!
He started to ploy against Mbeki from within his Zulu gang and grabbed power from the president through violent shenanigans at Polokwane!
He then escaped jail by appointing a useful idiot in the National Prosecuting Authority.
Zuma is now repeating his ‘great escape from jail’ strategy!
Grab power and then recuse himself from further prosecution!
Will he succeed? Will the legal system fail the country AGAIN?
We see the current broken condition of our country which is the result of Zuma’s previous successful ‘escape from jail’ and his abuse of power.
The NPA can save SA by getting the ‘wrecking ball’ behind bars before any further destruction is done.
But the NPA failed the first time … will they fail AGAIN?