The global climate talks COP28 concluded on Wednesday morning to applause as delegates finally formally adopted a text, after the negotiations ran a day over schedule.

This year’s annual talks were hosted in Dubai, UAE, a fossil fuel-producing nation, leaving many sceptical about the level of ambition the final text would reach. As expected, the text shied away from “a phase-out of fossil fuels” and instead opted for a watered-down “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.

“Despite overall progress on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation and support, Parties are not yet collectively on track towards achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement and its long-term goals,” the text read.

Outside of the energy transition, COP28 made some headway in a handful of sectors. 

Energy transitions and just energy transition partnerships 

A commitment from countries to transition away from fossil fuels to keep alive the aim of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times has been a guiding principle at the COP gatherings since being decided in the Paris Agreement. A bonus in this year’s text was a commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030. 

Scientists have found that a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewables is the most effective way to keep global average temperature increases below 1.5°C. While “transitioning away from fossil fuels” is a move in the right direction, it also leaves room for the use of gas — also a fossil fuel — which is considered a transitional fuel by many states.

The text called for, “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science … [and] phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible.”

Not explicitly mentioning a “phase-out of fossil fuels” means that millions around the world, particularly in climate-vulnerable countries, are at risk of continued worsening climate impacts on their lives and livelihoods. 

Developing countries need the financial support of developed nations to ensure that they move away from fossil fuels, as well as climate finance and developed countries taking responsibility for the climate impacts to which they have made a major contribution, and of which developing nations face the brunt. 

South Africa was among the first developing countries to join the International Partners Group and receive a mixed bag of funding to aid the country’s shift away from its heavy fossil fuel dependency. 

Indonesia is in a partnership that secured $20-billion in finance over the next three to five years. Vietnam, on the other hand, made efforts at this COP to secure a just transition partnership, but the inclusion of coal plants in the plan, alongside the jailing of activists who have criticised the plan, was a stumbling block. Meanwhile, countries such as China and India kept silent about moving away from coal reliance.

Loss and Damage Fund

COP28 made some headway with the Loss and Damage Fund which was agreed upon at COP27. 

Announcement of the Loss and Damage Fund and agreement to operationalise it kicked off COP28. At its closing, the fund — set up to help developing countries deal with climate-related events — had received about $720-million from countries including the United Arab Emirates, Germany, the US and Japan. However, this amount barely touches the surface of what is needed to ensure climate-vulnerable countries are shielded from climate disasters for which they are not responsible. 

Research from think tanks and developing countries has placed the funding needed at between $100-billion to $500-billion per year by 2030. 

The final text made few progressive statements about Loss and Damage, other than recognising the impact of Loss and Damage on developing countries and calling for transparency through biennial reports.

COP28, said the text, “Recognises the importance of particularly vulnerable developing countries and segments of the population that are already vulnerable owing to geography, socioeconomic status, livelihood, gender, age, minority status, marginalisation, displacement, or disability, as well as the ecosystems that they depend on, in responding to loss and damage associated with climate change impacts.”

Climate finance

South Africa, which is part of the African Group of Negotiators, had said in a briefing before COP28 that it was looking to increase the expired climate finance pledge of $100-billion a year to developing nations by developed countries — a commitment the countries continuously failed to meet.  

On Finance Day, international financial institutions made major commitments to expand climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs), allowing debt to be paused for countries experiencing climate calamity. The World Bank also offered to start offering CRDCs in existing loans, which will pause debt as well as interest for two years in the event of a natural disaster.  

No specific numbers were mentioned in the final text regarding a climate finance commitment, which leaves room to set it high on the agenda of COP29 which will be hosted in Baku, Azerbaijan.  

Adaptation 

Adaptation is the middle child of the negotiations; ignored and sidelined in favour of mitigation. This often stems from developed countries being able to gain from their investments into mitigation in developing countries — ie, just transition loans — whereas it’s difficult to make a case for returns with adaptation, whose finance must often come in the form of grants. 

This COP28 proved no different, with the Adaptation Fund attracting financial pledges of just under $200-million, falling short of the amount needed to ensure climate-vulnerable countries adapt to already changed climate conditions. DM