BUSINESS REFLECTION
After the Bell: Fighting the head-in-the-sand approach to the climate crisis
Half the world’s dams have lost significant amounts of water, partly from increased use and partly from climate change, in almost equal measure.
I live in the Karoo and all around my home there are ostrich farms. Ostriches are very odd birds, being large and flightless. They are commonly thought to be indigenous to southern Africa, but are most probably Asian in origin.
The farmers in my area tell me one of the big advantages of farming ostriches is that they yield three different products: Ostrich skin is largely turned into leather products, mainly cowboy boots these days. Ostrich feathers, once very expensive fashion products, are alas not so any longer (ostrich feather boas and headdresses were killed off by the car industry because as cars got faster, they blew away). Sad.
And then, of course, there is the meat, which has the advantage of being healthier because it’s low-fat, low-cholesterol red meat, and the disadvantage of tasting awful — or at least I think so. I’m going to be lynched for that comment but, honestly, while some people like it, I find it a bit weird.
But there is one thing the ostrich does not do. It does not bury its head in the sand when it senses danger. This is a dastardly misconception perpetrated by the Romans, which has served for years as an analogy for avoiding problems by ignoring them. Ostriches dig shallow nests in the sand into which they drop their eggs. They turn the eggs several times a day, which creates the illusion of them burying their heads in the sand.
Still, the analogy is useful and never more than when it comes to the issue of climate change. For all the sceptics out there, just know that the science is now pretty unanimous. Like anti-vaxxers, there is a holdout group, but the consensus view is convincing. I know of course that there are falsities perpetrated in the name of climate change adherence and that there is a huge industry now premised on the notion. But there is also a huge industry premised on climate change being a hoax.
Climate change is one of those odd economic externalities that permits misconception because it’s been happening so slowly. My guess is that there are a lot of what you might call panic assumptions, perpetrated particularly on very hot days, when climate change is blamed for some unusual weather occurrence.
The combination of a variable record in the process of planetary heating, the mild changes that (most) people have experienced so far, and the huge industrial incentive to deny climate change have made for a fractious debate. But gradually, the tide is turning and it is refreshing to see that at COP28, participants have now, for the first time, agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in an attempt to reach global net zero emissions by 2050.
This is an improvement on the draft agreement which did not include the idea of a “phase-out” of fossil fuels — mainly at the instance of the oil-producing nations, which understandably don’t like the idea. A “transition away” is not as strong as a phase-out, but it’s better than nothing at all.
The question is whether this succession of historic agreements and ambitious targets is making sufficient difference on the ground — and the answer to that would be a hard “no”. Circa 2022, the average increase in the Earth’s temperature is 1.81°C. At this rate, which by the way is a slower rate of decline, by 2050, the average temperature will be 2.75°C warmer.
That means the world is going to get pretty hot. As my podcast co-pilot Mark Barnes points out in this week’s podcast, these increases might seem small, but if your body temperature increases by 1.5°C, then you are sick. Normal body temperature is 37.2°C. A temperature of 38 means you probably have a fever. At 40 you are a medical emergency and at 43 you are probably dead.
Thinking of it that way, this is serious stuff. There is another big problem and that is water. One thing that has become easy to measure has been the size of dams and lakes around the world, because for satellites to tally this information is now as easy as falling off a chair.
The Environmental Sciences department at the University of Colorado Boulder examined more than 250,000 satellite images spanning from 1992 to 2020 and what they discovered was “staggering”. Half the world’s dams have lost significant amounts of water, partly from increased use and partly from climate change, in almost equal measure.
Two of the US’s largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, are sitting at half their average levels. The Aral Sea between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan used to be the fourth-biggest lake in the world and now it’s almost non-existent, although it began drying up years ago.
Some lakes are now much fuller, but oddly that’s not necessarily cause for celebration because they are being fed by melting glaciers, particularly in North America and the Tibetan Plateau. That underlines climate change rather than negating it. This is part of the problem with climate change: its effects are not consistent in place, time and effect.
This is something SA knows pretty well because Cape Town came very close to being the first major city in the world to run out of water. The scenario of a water war used to be the subject of science fiction. No longer. DM
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Great article! There is one issue though, that I think is often overlooked in the rush to crucify fossil fuels alone (not that I’m a supporter of them) and that’s consumption. Obviously as the population grows, admittedly at a slower pace than before, there are more mouths to feed, and as developing world consumers get wealthier they consume more, but the conspicuous consumption of rich countries is massively damaging to the planet. Single-season fashion, with the (synthetic) clothing thrown away or dumped into a poor country in Africa or Asia for starters (up to 92Mtpa is chucked into landfills); single-use plastics (thankfully in the crosshairs of most governments these days); simply eating too much – and discarding too much food, with estimates of up to 38% to 40% of all food in the USA thrown away and probably similar levels in Europe. Estimates are that 1.3bn tons of food are wasted globally a year. Cut that in half and imagine the resources saved in producing it – think of it as Joburg Water and the 45% or so of ‘non-revenue water’ that leaks through the system. There are endless ways in which humanity could consume less with simple changes in habit and acknowledging the perils the planet faces, and not all of it has to be decided at Cop28 with 70,000 (!) delegates flying in to have their say.
All valid points. I have sympathy for Malthus because our technology has allowed us to delay a rebalancing of our populations. But physics is a cruel master and our resources are finite. It may take longer but eventually Malthus will be proven correct unless our population is brought under control.
Isn’t it odd that you need a license a to drive, operate a boat, run a business, be a professional doctor, accountant, etc., but not one to have children. Even though having children is arguably the most impactful. But I understand why no-one wants government involved in THAT decision – eugenics and one-child policies were bad enough and not too long ago the Nazis tried to control who had what (Sonnenkinders) kids.
So I suppose we’ll have to fall back on what seems to work: expand education for women and girls as much as possible and make family planning tools readily accessible.
I read your articles avidly and welcome your warning about the increasing demand for a diminishing supply of water availability. However I take issue with your comments of an organised hoax as related to the factual evidence when related to climate change. There are deeply experienced and professional scientists who study the original literature and scientific aspects related to GHG radiation transitions as witness the findings of the 1 600 strong Global Clintel Foundation which on good scientific empirical evidence shows that there is no climate emergency to scare the proletariat. As an example satellite data covering global temperatures of the last 44 years show a steady increase in temperature of 0.14 degrees per decade, (UAH, NOAA) which is not accelerating and which predicts a rise in temperature of o.35 degrees by 2050 and not by scary 0.98 degrees as you state. (an overkill by a factor of nearly 3!) The Great Barrier Reef coral reef is currently at its best for 40 years and many Pacific islands are in fact growing in size (NASA). The IPCC itself admits in its AR6 (2021) that Atlantic / Gulf tornados have not been growing in size. The infra-red absorption band for CO2 in the troposphere is close to saturation and even a doubling the CO2 level will lead to a maximum of an 0.7 degree rise in temperature due to GHG warming by CO2. The planet is warming naturally, being no warmer than it was 1 000 and 2 000 years ago. This is not a hoax, but based on factual evidence.
I see it this way. If people and maybe journalists as well carry on commenting about this global warming theory to scare countries into giving away money then people’s focus is away from the fact that Ukrainian hackers just left Russia without a tax database. Deleting every taxpayer from the Russian archives, as well as all there backups. Good job guys.
Good day Daily Maverick writer,
I truly don’t believe what you say. I was fooled into taking vaxine shots…yet today we have a MP in Italy being taken to court as the facts and dangers of the vaxines for Covid are being investigated by decent Medical Professionals that are proving how detrimental these were without getting into the semantics of this matter. There is also the guy in New Zealand that was the person entrusted to collate certain information and has established and brought his deadly finding to the attention of the public. It’s all a scam….and the media too seem to be the biggest players in this whole saga as all this informationis being hidden from the eyes and ears of the public. Sad and sick.
On the subject of ‘Climate change ‘, I’m going to ask people to store this article and to ridicule all of the people that fell foul to this silly thought and manipulation.
All the best to you all at Daily Maverick and to all the readers over the festive season.
Amazing how many have never heard of history or geology etc !
Global warming has been here a few times !
if it had not The USA would be under ice !
My house is about 100 m above sea level , way back it was the beach 🙂
Is the world causing extra heating , most likely !
Not matter what the rest of the world does , China will be the world’s biggest polluter for as long as they have an economy , 10 years at least !
As for dried lakes .
Where did all the water that created the Grand Canyon go ? Sea wards I guess !
Not sure of the actual time , 100 -150 k years ?
Most of lower South Africa was an inland sea , one of the over runs can be seen between East London / Bloem ! See for yourselves , drive below the old surface of the lake 100-200 m above you and a few kms wide !
Not had big rain since the deluge broke the old natural dam wall near O’ keep apparently 🙂
Now other countries are getting hit with floods , Aussies are swimming inland , again !
China too , 100 mm for a few hours is not good !
New houses in Botswana came with a rain tank 40 years ago .
As mentioned by another , as humans we are rather sensitive to ‘ heat’ , not a wide range either .
Just how long have we been collecting global temperatures ? I should know , not that long really .
So now big chunks of ice are breaking off and cooling the sea ? 🙂 Glaciers back tracking !
Just less reflected from the sun 🙂
Life has been good , unsure what the future holds , if I get another 30 years , will be overtime and will I still want to be around then ?
Will be off grid soon , just saving $$ , as more do it , Munis budgets will take strain !
That said , on the dark side , earth is overdue for a ‘polar switch’ , while also fairly slow will take time to adapt .