FACT OR FISSION?
Questions raised after Ramokgopa starts procurement process for 2,500MW of nuclear power
In a media briefing on Tuesday, Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa confirmed that all the ‘suspensive conditions’ to start procuring 2,500MW of new nuclear power had been satisfied. The government expects the first unit to come online in a decade. The immediate response from Earthlife Africa was: 'I think the process is still flawed ... There is still a public process that needs to happen.'
In a media briefing on Tuesday, Minister of Electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa confirmed all the “suspensive conditions” to start procuring 2,500MW of new nuclear power immediately. Zizamele Mbambo, Deputy Director General for Nuclear Energy in the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) said the first unit will be commissioned somewhere between 2032 and 2033.
The announcement comes amid escalating concerns about the country’s energy security, the worst year of power outages since the electricity crisis first began over a decade ago and the need to transition to less carbon-intensive methods of electricity generation.
The announcement comes at a pivotal time for South Africa’s energy sector as the country grapples with a nearly two-decade-long energy crisis in its worst year on record, characterised by rolling blackouts and an overreliance on aging coal-fired power stations. The announcement is in line with government’s now outdated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2019, which envisaged 2,500MW of nuclear power by 2030.
That IRP says in “decision 8” that the government should “commence preparations for a nuclear build programme to the extent of 2,500MW at a pace and scale that the country can afford because it is a no-regret option in the long term.”
Speaking on Tuesday morning, Ramokgopa explained that despite the DMRE’s intentions to soon publish the updated IRP for public comment, “this exercise we’re doing now is pursuant to what sits in the IRP 2019 and that still remains — as I stand before you — as valid. And also when you go to 2023, if you look at the generation sources, nuclear is still a significant part of this and this is going to fall within that.”
Importantly, he explained, all of the preconditions to procure nuclear energy have been satisfied. One of these conditions is that “new nuclear power be procured through an engineering, procurement and construction contract — what we call an EPC contract.”
The minister continued that “DMRE submitted the report to the regulator addressing these suspensive conditions in July of 2023. Of course, Nersa (National Energy Regulator of South Africa) still had an obligation to satisfy itself if the response from the DMRE to the suspensive conditions are sufficient for Nersa to consider giving this process the green light. And I am happy to indicate that on the 30th of August 2023, Nersa considered the DMRE’s submission and concluded that the suspensive conditions had been satisfactorily addressed.”
“Essentially what Nersa then said was that ‘we are giving you the go-ahead to proceed’. So, to give a legal effect to the ministerial determination for the procurement of new nuclear capacity of August 2020, the determination and Nersa’s concurrence will be gazetted. So now we’re starting the process of gazetting. So what we are triggering now, is essentially a procurement process. So we’re going out to ensure that we’re able to get that additional 2,500 megawatts of nuclear capacity to ensure that we’re able to meet the issues of national security and energy sovereignty.”
Ramokgopa added that, in his estimation, “this is a significant milestone because we know that historically, in the recent past, the process was mired in controversy. Now we’re happy that we’ve been able to iron out the issues related to how the procurement process needs to unfold, we’ve met the regulatory requirements as per Nersa’s legal requirement and also now we have concurrence of Nersa.”
Read more in Daily Maverick: How the Russian nuclear deal would have taken South Africa to the brink
Daily Maverick previously reported that a report by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace titled “Nuclear Enrichment: Russia’s Ill-Fated Influence Campaign in South Africa” explained how Ecodefense!, a Russian environmental non-government organisation, had leaked a copy of the confidential September 2014 agreement between South Africa and Russia to two South African activists.
“The contents of the document made it difficult for the government to convince anyone that it was conducting proper tender-based bids from French, South Korean, and US firms, let alone subjecting the deal to parliamentary review.
“The activists, Makoma Lekalakala and Liz McDaid, won considerable acclaim for stirring grassroots opposition and organising legal challenges,” the authors wrote.
Read more in Daily Maverick: How South Africans thwarted secret Putin/Zuma nuclear deal
Activists’ suspicions raised
In a telephone interview with Daily Maverick after the briefing by the minister, Lekalakala shared her concerns.
“I think the process is still flawed. Nersa has not really announced or not informed the public on whether the DMRE has satisfied the substantive conditions when they applied for that determination.”
She added that Earthlife, the non-profit organisation she is a part of, asked for the information but that Nersa had not shared it with them.
“It’s also surprising that it’s the Minister of Elecricity making this announcement. We expected this from DMRE. Something suspicious is happening, especially since the IRP 2023 is not yet in the public domain, there is still a public process that needs to happen. It is questionable why this happens while the process is still in progress. Why the rush?”
Lekalakala continued that, “There are already issues with Koeberg Power Station. Some of the concerns from Koeberg don’t really give confidence. There are issues around safety we need clarity on”.
“I heard them speak about small modular reactors (SMRs), SA spent R10-billion on pebble bed reactor technology that we still don’t use. The SMRs are good on paper but have not been proven anywhere and this is a very risky position. They shouldn’t fool the public. This will not assist in reducing load shedding, the process is still flawed and it’s nothing different where the public was not informed [with the previously mooted nuclear deal].”
Scant details from officials
Fielding questions from journalists at the briefing, DDG Mbambo explained that he could not share many details about whether the forthcoming Request For Proposals (RFP) will include small modular reactors or more conventional nuclear builds.
“We’re not in the position to start talking about what the RFP will contain at this stage because we have not yet started the work of designing the request for proposal. But just to give you a sense that in 2020, the Department [of energy] went out on a Request For Information, which was a non-binding request for information from the different nuclear vendors to demonstrate to South Africa as to how they would implement a project of this magnitude.”
He continued that the request “came up with a lot of information that’s quite useful in terms of the conventional nuclear power plants as well as the small modular reactors and we took that as part of our considerations going forward, but at this stage we cannot pronounce as to the shape and form and the format that the RFP — which is a commercially binding document — would look like and what it will call for.”
When asked about timelines, Mbambo continued that “based on our assessment as the team, having done the request for information, as I’ve alluded to, we found that the the ideal time by which to start commissioning the first unit of the this 2500[megawatts] is around 2032, 2033.”
Read more in Daily Maverick: 25 years in the making – the real reasons we have rolling blackouts according to De Ruyter
When asked about these timelines and how this new build is unlikely to resolve rolling blackouts, the minister said that not being able to prepare for the future while fixing the present is “the height of folly”.
“Part of the reason why we are where we are today is because when we were advised in 1997 about the need for us to be able to build new generation capacity and that if you don’t build that new generation capacity, the country’s going to run into a generation problem 10 years from that, we were complacent because we had the excess generation cheap and we thought that ‘no, that’s not something that requires our attention’ and it caught up with us, and we’re still catching up.
“We have two tasks. The one task — which is a primary task — is the ending of load shedding ensuring that there’s sufficient generation that meets demand immediately and then you have to ensure that going into the future, you don’t run into the same problem.” DM
Aaaah.. ok now his appointment finally makes sense, I have been waiting for the scam since no ANC member has EVER EVER been appointed to do anything other than steal.
So I guess the plan for Ram? Ok! Go-Pa! was always to:
1. Burn enough diesel to memory wipe the mindless masses.. this normally takes about 4 months based on previous experiences
2. Order LOADS of new Nuclear power from Russian buddies whilst pretending to tender for it
3. Create more jobs for comrades and foreign budget for vote buying
4. All aboard the next 10-year gravy train
NOW it makes sense.
Of course, there is always a silver lining with the ANC.
In the case of this next chapter of SA’s finest, we may be screwed out of even more tax by this than any scheme before it, but at least we will be left with a collection of NUCLEAR facilities run by the ANC and their comrades.
I mean really, what could possibly go wrong?
And remember those couch cushions need some replenishment as the ANC cupboard is bare.
MJ Morris
I wonder if any part of this will turn out not to be crooked. Only joking.
ANC cadres with their hands on nuclear reactors. What a fantastic thought. Bad enough they have Koeberg. Wonder how much silver crossed which palms for this….any takers on a bet that the ANC will suddenly have money to pay their debts again (as happened before….)?
Well, they need money to pay for the last election banners and will need even more for the next election.
Yeah, they failed to successfully build 2 coal power stations. How long has that been going on now? 15 years? But they will construct a nuclear power plant in 9 to 10 years?
So, what, the thinking is “coal is hard, nuclear is easy”? Oy vey.
If this happens (big if) this 2500MW will be surplus to SA’s electricity needs. In ten years time, we will look back at the “good old days” of 2023 when SA still had some functioning infrastructure, a modest industrial base, and a profitable agricultural sector prior to land exapropriation and uncontrolable land invasions.
The most recent Nuclear plant is in the US, was seven years late, cost $35billion and is half the size we want. If we do this it will cost R3 Trillion by completion in 2040.
This perhaps is the ANC honoring the bribes that Russia paid former prisoner Zuma?
Prediction : they will blow a few billion on studies, enough spent to satisfy Putin, then nothing will happen.
2033 plus at least another 15 years sounds more realistic (obviously with 3 x plus original cost)
What assurance can the Taxpayers be given that the tender process will be transparent and will be totally fair to all concerned?
Will the tender process be guaranteed free of bribery and corruption. In essence, will tenders be processed on terms of “Best practice Rules” e g USA tender rules?
No assurance at all. Naturally all the troughs have to be filled first so that the ComRAID’s needs are satisfied – and naturally all tenderers will be excluded except the Russian one.
A lot of talk goes on about the dearth of sustainable electricity generating systems here in SA. OK, that is the case but there is a problem here. Eskom generates power and distributes it to the country, but they are not being paid for it. There are constant stories about municipalities owing Eskom billions of Rands but this all goes nowhere. The sale of electricity is one of the major revenue collection methods for the bulk of these municipalities because they do not have a solid and reliable rates collection process. The base of ratepayers is also very low. How is (was) Eskom expected to collect the money needed to continue its operations and make the capital investment they need to maintain the assets they have as well as update and upgrade to meet future requirements if they are not getting paid?
There is plenty of electricity revenue that goes down the ‘revenue sinkhole’ because so much electricity is stolen in plain sight. Our good old ‘zinyoka’. Guys the electricity cables hang in plain sight from light poles feeding the structures in the squatter camps – oops, informal settlements – in our townships. This is not limited to one township in one municipality, it is pervasive throughout South Africa. But the Association of Narcissistic Criminals will never stand up to this. These are votes for them and if they dare approach the problem, they will face a physical civil revolution, not just a cost at the ballot box.
Do you think people who can see damage in plain sight will care about doing something that may – and in their hands most likely will – have damaging consequences if not handled with the requisite level of skill and aptitude? Going nuclear might appear to be a way to deal with the energy crisis but it is expected to come online around 10 years from now. In that case and timeframe, why isn’t there rather investment in proven renewable energy generation systems? Simple; they don’t promise juicy rent-seeking mechanisms because the implementation does not require procurement processes bound in opaque steps. Further, even if the commissioning of this proposed plant were to go on as planned – hardly likely – given the track record of the comrades, can we trust the administrative and management processes to be run in a way that would protect us from nuclear mishaps? I don’t think so!
In the meantime, let us enjoy the upcoming 33,8% increase in our electricity tariffs…
It seems that safety issues can be addressed long before activation. At least build the buildings while verifying safety issues. Concrete structures are not a safety hazard.
Nuclear the way to go! Pity it has taken so long to get going.
This government can’t even build or maintain a coal fired plant properly though? Or a post office…
I just hope they don’t build it anywhere near me!
In plain view once again, ANC snouts poised to dip into yet another trough of easy money. And the cost factor? Energy expert Chris Yelland is absolutely emphatic on this. He says we’re told by the ANC ministers that nuclear power will cost much less than anything else whereas it will, in fact, cost a great deal more. If the ANC tells lies like this at this early satge, what else are they going to lie about in their nuclear program? Inform us that there will be no back-handers this time round? Perish the thought. They’re past masters at raiding the public purse.
There is just no end – ever – to the greed and corruption. Does anyone believe this will be open, honest, transparent, safe, on time, at cost, etc. etc. etc. Hell no. Delay renewables, safe, quick, effective, cheap……. Let’s for the country’s sake get rid of this government
Of course the whole thing is flawed because nothing this anc govt does is above board, state capture never ended it went underground for a while and now is resurfacing fro PetroSA and now nuclear. Who do they think will run these nuclear power stations, our real skills have left the country . Nuclear is a costly business so one would assume another loan and another massive debt to this country, future generations will be paying those off for many years to come. What are the anc up to seems like they are signing contracts left right and centre, taking loans galore is this for spite so should a new govt come in they have to carry all their burden ?
the money budgeted for this nuclear plant process will just be another white elephant with billions ending up in the coffers of corrupt anc officials bank accounts
As a professional engineer, as is the Minister, I think along the same lines as him. Never mind all the misinformation and disinformation from people more interested in political mudslinging than rational analysis, the future, taking all the relevant factors into account such as environmental damage from fossil fuels etc. points to nuclear as the best option.
He has Engineering degrees but never practiced. His Doctorate is in Administration of some sort, and he’s wholly a political animal of the ANC sort with more than just whiffs of irregularities and corruption
I’m not sure how you arrive at that conclusion. The history of nuclear is over promising in terms of cost and time frames. Coal is the cheapest but SA’s last mega projects were woefully over budget. The construction risks with a mega project involving the complexity of a nuclear plant are even greater, you would agree. Add to that we have the risk of nuclear meltdown, and given what we know about corruption in SA we have the risk of nuclear proliferation, the argument is nowhere near as compelling as it might seem on paper. With nuclear we have to think not just about now, but what happens in 50 years when we have to deal with waste. Given SA’s current trajectory, how confident are you that we’ll be able to manage that?
My comment about nuclear being the best option of course based on the procurement process being properly and ethically done.
And the build coming in on time and within budget!
Notice, looking at the photograph, that Ramokgopa won’t look you in the eye, looks above and to the side.
One could say shifty!
I wonder why they don’t wait for the elections, actually future projects must be put on hold we have enough looting already already we are still recovering from the COVID looting and we owe the IMF loads of cash, by the way how did the sheriff go with the repossession at Luthuli house?
In 12 years’ time we will probably need an extra 7500MW of power. This is ANC long term planning, I guess.
let me guess – the nuclear job will be miraculously awarded to a russian company (after all other shortlisted candidates are disqualified on technicalities) to go alongside the gazprom deal… of course we can have full confidence that between the ANC and the russians, everything will be squeaky clean and above board with no pigs feeding at the trough of corruption!!!!
Another job for Gazprom & Co? How much will flow to the ComRAIDS?
Wow all of 2500 Mw , almost 2 stages of loadshedding .
How to pay for it ? And at what cost will it generate electricity if ever ?
Suspect Russia and China are the favourites for the deal , maybe sell off Simons Town ?
As for those bemoaning the 34 % increase , half of that happened in June .
Escom does not make a profit from the none functional Mega plants .
There are still 4 more lines to be finished , no timeline about that !
That is 3200Mw , while the other half limps along
I agree , electricity must be paid for , when the supplier has messed up , a bitter pill !
Who will suffer the most , the poor that vote for the ANC , and the others that do not care anymore .
Those that can will move to solar , reducing the income of cash strapped munis .
In China , they ‘sold ‘ the land to ‘developers ‘ , no more building , no more funds .
Munis that are in default should should be held accountable , fix or be fired ! Ha ha .
Karma , eat the pie , pay for the pie ! Or you will have no pie !
What rates increases can we expect next year ? Make up the wages for the comrades .
Just for fun , Escom says about 14-16 Mw off line due to ? breakages ? 5-7 Mw for routine work ?
What is happening with the missing 15 Mw ? 5 x the new plant !
As for Koeberg at what cost , for how long ? Even if fixed , out for 2/3 of a year , 2 stages !
Hmm that containment shell , all that rusty rebar and crumbled concrete !
Then in 40 years will find a space to dump the fuel
I can just see the tip of his gravy sucking proboscis poking out.
So the Russia nuclear plan wasn’t only a Zuma plan to steal more money from us, here we see it’s been an ANC plan all along.
It certainly tell an extremely concerning story when the vast majority of comments are about the kickbacks the cadres will receive.
There is literally no trust in the communist controlled ANC and they don’t care. They will continue milking the South African cow until there’s nothing left.
Ah, but where to put them? 2,500 MW from most sellers, equals two big nuke plants or up to 25 small (modular) ones, depending on how small you want.
But they all need reliable cooling water — something SA’s droughts in the last decade mean that they will have to be by the sea.
Richards Bay is an obvious choice, but has tricky environmental concerns with its lagoon. Koeberg is also an obvious choice, with its support infrastructure for nuke power already in place — but it is in W Cape which is not ideal from ANC’s point of view.
Natal north coast and much of south coast either too full of very rich holiday homes, or falling apart as you watch…. Leaves the E Cape — and there has been no significant industrial development there since Volkswagen and Mercedes built their factories under the Nasty Nats.
My guess is lots of small ones, with management given to local branches of ANC who will blindfold a child and tell them to stick a pin in the map to decide where exactly. A few might even be built.
Its xmas time can the bloody lights stay on, factories and industries are closed, who asked for a minister of electricity by the way we have enough engineers in this country