Dailymaverick logo

Business Maverick

This article is more than a year old

POWER CRISIS

Eskom contradicts Ramokgopa – forecasts more crippling blackouts over the coming months

Despite Minister Ramokgopa's claims, Eskom officials have forecast that South Africa will be subject to daily blackouts (between stages 1 and 3) in December and January, with the possibility of even deeper load shedding.
Eskom contradicts Ramokgopa – forecasts more crippling blackouts over the coming months Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. (Photo: Gallo Images / Darren Stewart)

A forecast by Eskom officials on the state of SA’s electricity system has shown that there will be consistent blackouts in December and January — contradicting the recent claims made by Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa.

Eskom officials recently delivered a presentation detailing that the country will still be subject to deep power cuts in December and January.

Daily Maverick has seen the 30-page presentation dated 22 November.

The officials forecast that there will be blackouts (between stages 1 and 3) every day during December — except for three days. This is the best-case scenario, which relies on fewer unplanned breakdowns at Eskom power stations. The worst-case scenario involves load shedding of between stages 4 and 6 every day during December, with no respite. A similar best and worst-case scenario is forecast for January.  

Eskom has forecast that the peak residual use over December and January will be between 23,000MW and 27,000MW, while planned outages (usually a result of generating units at power stations being taken offline for maintenance) are expected to be between 6,800MW and 10,100MW.

Exacerbating this situation is that unplanned outages (usually as a result of a breakdown in electricity generating units) are forecast to be above 16,000MW. In most scenarios during December and January, electricity shortfalls of more than 4,000MW are forecast by Eskom officials, necessitating the implementation of rolling blackouts.

Even for most of 2024 and early 2025, the electricity situation looks dire, with demand being on the rise and uncomfortable levels of unplanned blackouts being recorded, which puts the entire system in jeopardy (see below).

(Source: Eskom presentation)
(Source: Eskom presentation)

Arguably, the table above paints a picture of Eskom and the government being unable to fix the power crisis that undermines the economy and investments in the country and harms the quality of life.

The forecast by Eskom officials is in stark contrast to the promise made by Ramokgopa during his briefing on 26 November, when he assured the media there would be fewer blackouts over December and that some days would be free of blackouts.

Ramokgopa said electricity demand during December was expected to be lower against a backdrop of lower industrial demand, adding that this would make it possible to suspend blackouts on some days.

Read more in Daily Maverick: ‘We were never at Stage 8’ — Ramokgopa dismisses speculation Joburg hit a load shedding record

However, December is usually dicey for the electricity situation as hotter conditions during the month make power stations and their parts more susceptible to overheating and breakdowns. This has been the case going back seven years.

Read more on Daily Maverick: Renewables help generate rare good news on Eskom’s winter blackouts

Ramokgopa has also pinned his hopes for an improved electricity situation in December on the return online of units 2 and 5 at the Kusile Power Station, which would provide Eskom with “sufficient capacity” to stave off high levels of blackouts.

In a response to questions by Daily Maverick, Eskom said the forecast is based on assumptions of unplanned losses (that are not predicted and seen in failures and breakdowns in generating units) and the demand for electricity.  “The expected load shedding based on these assumptions is a combination of the higher than aspiration unplanned losses and higher than expected demand,” said Eskom.

 DM

  • Article updated to include Eskom’s comments. 

 

Comments (10)

Stephen Browne Nov 28, 2023, 01:13 PM

So we find ourselves where most level heads were predicting - a slow, more-or-less uncontrolled change from public to private power. Major industries being forced to forgo non-existent grid capacity and/or generation, instead making their own power. Those private individuals/smaller businesses who can afford it doing some version of off-grid. A little wiggle-room as people leave Eskom. Ultimately a death-spiral as Eskom implodes from abysmal management and lack of revenue. If the essential grid capacity was being improved in any way we would be hearing about it from the usual crew. Our leaders have basically given us the policy version of *shrug*.

Albert Questiaux Nov 28, 2023, 01:35 PM

Unfortunately many stupid people in the ANC government don't know they are stupid, so not much will change until they are removed. And the few smart ones amongst them that may suggest logical solutions are outvoted by the majority idiots.

les@despy.org Nov 28, 2023, 01:49 PM

Another fairytale from the ruling regime.

Donal Slemon Nov 28, 2023, 02:09 PM

Squirrel: Guys, we've an election coming - we need to do something to make voters think we're doing something. Pravin: Quick - print more t-shirts. And how about a new minister of Power..? Gwede: You mean electricity Prav. We already have the power ha ha! Fikile: Lol! Get with the programme Pravin - or do you want me to fix?? I'm really good at fix! I fear fo... Squirrel: enough! What is wrong with you all? Just thinking about this makes my head hurt. Pravin: We don't need to think boss - and we definitely don't need the voters to think. We're finished if they do. What about we ask China? Squirrel: No - we can't pander to other countries Prav. Fikile: But we can 'Pandor' to russia - lolz..! Gwede: Shut up Fiks. Is it lunch yet? Squirrel: You guys... eish please: a solution dammit..! Pravin: What about someone of impeccable acumen, widely liked and respected, with only smallanyana scandals attached, who's also an engineer. Squirrel: pecca-what? Gwede: I think you mean megawatt, boss. Fikile: I know just the guy... Squirrel: Can he hide the truth like the rest of us? If so, he's hired. Gwede: Luuuuunch!

tony.fisher@absamail.co.za Nov 28, 2023, 03:03 PM

It is essential to realise that any announcements by either Ramokgopa or Eskom are spur-of-the moment utterances, and are likely to be revised at any time, without any further notice.

Johan Buys Nov 28, 2023, 05:12 PM

Loadshedding is just one manifestation of the raging ANC faction fight.

The Proven Nov 28, 2023, 07:41 PM

As sad as it may seem, there is an upside. I read somewhere that the ANC expect to lose the election should the electricity crisis not be solved by election time. Inhope they are right - drastic intervention required.

Joseph Mathye Nov 29, 2023, 05:50 PM

Since the ANC took over most services to the people have been compromised. Imagine it's hot, no water no electricity no basic services! Let's us vote this failing government (ANC) out. These guys do not care about us, they are already filthy rich. Come 2024, the ANC must be voted out. The angel you know is better than the devil you don't know. For 30 years! Even to this day is promises promises. I mean they failed for 30 years what change can they bring now. If we give them yet another chance, they will finish us. 'This country is finished'

Hodgpig@hotmail.com Nov 29, 2023, 07:48 PM

I’m a tourist from the UK, I’ve been in SA for since the beginning of November & the load shedding has got noticeably worse. I won’t be coming back again until it’s been resolved, I can’t imagine how much money this is costing the economy, it’s shameful it’s been going on for so long.

Robinson Crusoe Nov 29, 2023, 08:59 PM

Ye gods. It never ends. Doesn't the work of the national statisticians mean anything to the folk who run the country? Surely basic intelligence drawing off statistics can show what's to be expected, and therefore what is required of the state and its parastatals including Eskom? Ah, I forgot. Duh. Providential foresight, ability to interpret statistics, grasp of the need for sensible, affordable, sustainable forward planning. Technical competence. We must be modest in our expectations. Kind and modest and not ask over-much of our elected leaders and their comrades or cadres or whatever.