NOVEMBER BY-ELECTION
ANC crushes opposition in KZN with resounding Imbali victory, EFF and IFP trail with middling results
The ANC produced one of its best KwaZulu-Natal by-election performances of the year, trouncing the opposition in Imbali township just outside Pietermaritzburg.
Ward 41 (Imbali) in Msunduzi, uMgungundlovu: ANC 82% (71% PR) EFF 11% (13% PR) IFP 7% (3% PR)
The setting: Imbali township is southwest of the town centre of the provincial capital of Pietermaritzburg. It sits above the Edendale township. Msunduzi is the second-most populous municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. It forms part of the uMgungundlovu district which includes Howick, Richmond and Mooi River.
The 2021 local government elections: The ANC won Ward 41 by a landslide. There was a tabulation error on the ward ballot which cut the ANC’s majority on the ward ballot. The proportional representation (PR) ballot is a more accurate description of what transpired in Ward 41. The total vote count for the ward ballot was 932 fewer than the PR ballot. The total for the ANC was 929 votes fewer on the ward ballot than the PR ballot. There is a very strong correlation between the lower vote count on the ward ballot and the ANC’s ward-ballot count.
Only two parties reached double figures on the PR ballot – the ANC and the EFF. The IFP finished sixth, well off the pace. It received fewer votes than their Multi-Party Charter partner, the DA.
Voting was relatively consistent in the three voting districts, with the ANC getting 70% or more in all three, and the EFF getting 12% to 15%.
Despite the ANC’s dominance in Imbali, it still lost its outright majority in Msunduzi. The party lost 13 seats in Msunduzi, falling from 53 to 40 in the 82-seat council. The DA grew in Msunduzi, from 14 seats to 16. The EFF was the main beneficiary of the ANC’s decline in support as it surged from three to 10. The IFP too benefited, growing from five eight seats. The Abantu Batho Congress (ABC) won two and a range of smaller parties won a single seat. The ANC won the mayoral chain by obtaining the support of some of the smaller parties.
The by-election: Ward councillor Mabhungu Mkhize was shot and killed in the ward he represented. Three people were arrested and appeared in court. They abandoned their bail application. The ANC, EFF and IFP contested this by-election. The DA endorsed the IFP. The combined percentage of the Multi-Party Charter from 2021 was 6%.
In March 2023, the IFP shocked the ANC in the safe seat of Sweetwaters near Pietermaritzburg. The IFP was hoping to build on that success in Ward 41, although it has less of a base in Ward 41.
The ANC recorded a resounding victory in the by-election. It won more than 80% of the vote in three of the four voting districts in the ward. This included the Unit 14 Community Hall, the most vote-rich part of the ward. Here the ANC bagged more than 1,100 votes to get 84% of the vote, well up from the 71% it garnered in the district in 2021.
Read more in Daily Maverick: ANC stumbles to victory in Eastern Cape despite UDM’s best poll showing of 2023
It was a mixed bag for the EFF. It held onto second place but declined in three of the four voting districts in the ward. It did grow in the Philani Primary School District, from 13% to 21%. While the party’s overall percentage vote share declined, it was not as severe as other recent KwaZulu-Natal by-elections.
The IFP showed some growth. It did outperform the combined total of the IFP and the DA from 2021, but not by much. Its growth was centred on Zamazulu High School where the party grew from 3% to 15% and beat the EFF for second place in this district. The IFP will need to show more growth in townships like Imbali if it wants to be in a position to take power from the ANC and its allies in 2024.
Poll: 36% (43% PR)
The next by-election will be on 29 November when the DA will defend a competitive seat in Mangaung. The party will have to fend off the ANC and the Patriotic Alliance in this ward. DM
A good question if the opposition parties (other than DA) will benefit from coalition announcement, or they will be viewed as sold out to the whites and lose?
Do South Africans really want change? Or are we wasting our time? I’ve been agonising on this question. No sense fighting to save a country when the majority want to keep the status quo.
When I see a young South African holding ANC memorabilia and chanting their slogans I cannot help but think…. OMFG how stupid are you actually?
Then again, perhaps we need to accept that a large portion of the population actually WANT to return to a tribal life, without the stresses of education, electricity, running water and hospitals. A time before tax needed to be paid and reading was a pre-requisite for success.
I guess there are a group of young South Africans who genuinely just want to make a rondavel, put on a grass skirt, make some beer in a calabash and tell stories about the ancestors around a fire.
Actually sounds like a pretty awesome life, infections, danger and hunger notwithstanding.
I don’t think this is the case. Rather, it’s a combination of poverty and poor education, exploited by parties with entrenched political mafias willing to lie to their constituents. But if you tell me the ANC and EFF want to regress SA into an undemocratic tribal oligarchy, then I’d agree. By the time South Africans realise they gave away their freedom, it will be too late.
Is there something, currently, that stops such people from living that life(tribal life) ?
So, not really a “crush” in KZN then. And here I was thinking DM isn’t a tabloid editorial.
If we continue to vote the way we always voted, things will stay the way they are and no one will listen to our complaints. Why is there so little appetite for being brave and saying it’s enough already, time for a new broom. Can it really just be lack of education? All over the world people boot out non performing governments … why can’t we?
You talk about “we” but it’s not”we” is it, because we know to vote them out. I know we are supposed to be all South Africans but that’s a rainbow idiom which is now dated and dishonest. South Africa is two nations, one being tribal and backwards and the other modern and aspirational. And not necessarily defined by race.
Well said
I read a comment recently-“Why would ANYONE vote for the ANC? ” There are a number of possibilities- ingrained loyalties, ignorance about the undeniable facts of their catastrophic failures, voter fraud etc., however there is another factor and that is low voter turnout. Many of my friends and business partners are saying why bother to vote-it gets us nowhere and nothing will change. This is where the opposition must concentrate their efforts in exposing the ANC as far and as wide as possible-big red letters on huge billboards style!!
This outlook of modern and aspirational versus tribal and backwards is neatly expressed in Verwoerdian apartheid. Read some of his speeches. Not surprised you are nostalgic for that.
For everyone wondering, “How can this be?”
Ward elections are won on local considerations, and a party’s national platform has much less bearing. If the DA has not built a presence in the ward, their endorsement will carry very little weight. If the IFP is shunned because of past shenanigans, then they will make little headway. If the EFF is feared because of their opportunism and chaos, then they will not increase their support. Who, then, was left on this ballot? “The devil we know”.
Another consideration is that the previous ward councillor — who was by some accounts energetic and in touch with the community — was killed in what was very likely a politically-motivated assassination. This is against the backdrop of a province that is now rife with political killings. It’s quite possible that the community wanted to send a message of “You will not defeat us like this”. Then again, the turnout was only 36%.
They are killing their own people in the contest to get seats but still go on voting for the same party. But that is how life is in ANC/EFF Kwazulu Natal
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