The world’s top teams have paid a dear price for fielding their best players and combinations over the course of the World Cup warm-ups. The injury toll – and indeed the rate of long-term suspensions – will continue to climb over the next four weeks, and over the course of the global tournament itself.

No team will emerge unscathed. Although the form of frontrunners such as Ireland, France, New Zealand and South Africa has shaped most pre-tournament predictions, it’s fair to say that squad depth may determine who lifts the Webb Ellis Cup at Stade de France on 28 October.

Counting the cost

Scotland wing Duhan van der Merwe and scrumhalf Ben White are still recovering from what appear to be serious injuries sustained in the warm-ups. But both should play at the World Cup. (Photo: Stu Forster / Getty Images)

England’s slim chances of winning the title took a knock after star scrumhalf Jack van Poortvliet was ruled out of the tournament because of a serious knee injury sustained in the recent win against Wales in London.

The more pressing concern, however, is the availability of captain and flyhalf Owen Farrell, who might miss England’s key pool match against Argentina on 9 September in Marseille owing to suspension, if World Rugby’s appeal against the decision to rescind his red card is successful.

Will England have the quality in depth to replace their first-choice halfback combination, and secure a win that could determine the winner of Pool D?

What is patently clear is that they are better stocked than most, especially the so-called tier-two nations.

Tonga have made a number of key recruitments since World Rugby changed its eligibility laws, with several former All Blacks and Wallabies joining the Pacific island side ahead of the 2023 World Cup campaign. On the eve of the tournament, however, they were dealt a major setback when centre George Moala – who previously represented the All Blacks – was suspended for 10 weeks.

Moala was red-carded for a tip tackle in the friendly match against Canada, and later handed a heavy ban. This prompted an outcry from the Pacific island community – and from critics and fans around the globe.

Many felt that Moala’s punishment was harsh and that the treatment of Farrell, the England captain, far too lenient.

Tonga don’t boast the depth or resources of England or other tier-one nations, and they may miss Moala more than tier-one nations missing key players. The Pacific Islanders have been drawn in the same pool as the Boks and will meet Jacques Nie­naber’s men on 1 October in Marseille.

Bok personnel challenges

The Boks, of course, have their own problems. Though they recorded a convincing 24–13 win in their first World Cup warm-up against Argentina in Buenos Aires, that result came at a cost.

Star centre Lukhanyo Am was helped from the field with what was later confirmed to be a serious knee injury. It was subsequently revealed that the “illness” that led to Lood de Jager’s late withdrawal was a heart condition, which is worrying.

Both were omitted from the 33-man World Cup squad – although it is hoped Am will recover in the coming weeks and rejoin the group in France if there’s an injury.

There’s been a lot of speculation about Handré Pollard’s fitness, after his omission from the official squad. But as is the case with Am, SA’s first-choice flyhalf may well feature at the World Cup at a later date.

As history shows, there’s bound to be a setback at some point. The Boks were forced to call up two reinforcements during the 2019 tournament, one in 2015 and two across the 2011 and 2007 competitions. To reiterate, no team is getting through the 2023 tournament in France unscathed.

World Cup opponents

Ireland captain Johnny Sexton is un­­available for the World Cup warm-ups, but will be free to play once his side arrives in France. (Photo: David Rogers /Getty Images)

The Bok coaches will be keeping a close eye on the medical and disciplinary reports coming out of the respective camps – especially those of Scotland, Ireland, France and New Zealand.

After serving a three-match ban, Scotland prop Zander Fagerson is set to return for the Pool B opener against South Africa in Marseille on 10 September. Lions wing Duhan van der Merwe and scrumhalf Ben White are still recovering from what appear to be serious injuries sustained in the warm-ups.

Ireland captain Johnny Sexton was banned after his abuse of an official in the wake of the Champions Cup final between Leinster and La Rochelle in Dublin. The flyhalf is un­­available for the World Cup warm-ups, but will be free to play once his side arrives in France.

Coach Andy Farrell will hope that No. 8 Jack Conan bounces back from his current ailment. Ireland are set to tackle the Boks in Paris on 23 September.

Hosts France have been rocked by the news that first-choice flyhalf Romain Ntamack will miss the tournament because of a serious knee injury. Ntamack tore his anterior cruciate ligament in the recent friendly against Scotland in Saint-Étienne.

Like halfback partner Antoine Dupont, Ntamack is central to France’s attack and kicking strategy. That role will now fall to second-choice pivot Matthieu Jalibert.

The All Blacks won the 2011 World Cup despite losing three flyhalves to serious injury over the course of the tournament, and France may face a similar test of depth in the coming months. Their front-row stocks are also under the microscope since the injury-enforced omissions of props Cyril Baille and Demba Bamba.

The All Blacks have put a contingency plan in place since losing veteran loosehead Joe Moody and flanker Ethan Blackadder. Lock Brodie Retallick and star flank Shannon Frizzell have both been included despite carrying knee and hamstring injuries, sustained in recent matches, into the tournament. Classy second-rower Retallick is only expected to be available for selection midway through the pool phase of the campaign.

Several other sides will travel to the World Cup without key players. The Wallabies have lost their best tighthead, Allan Alaalatoa, to a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Wales are without veteran hooker Ken Owens, and Italy have lost star centre Tommaso Menoncello. South African-born Lappies Labuschagne, who was until recently Japan’s captain, may miss the tournament after being banned for a dangerous tackle in a warm-up match against Fiji.

Given that injuries are a part of rugby, and that the attrition rate at a World Cup tournament is typically high, more losses should be expected in the coming months.

Unless the respective teams deliver more accurate and disciplined showings, more long-term suspensions, and ultimately more personnel casualties, could be in the offing.

In this respect, the Boks, perhaps more than any other team, should feel confident about their chances of progressing to the latter stages of the tournament. Over the past six years, Erasmus and Nienaber have developed three or four quality options in most positions – bar flyhalf – and are well placed to cope with these inevitable setbacks. DM

This story first appeared in our weekly Daily Maverick 168 newspaper, which is available countrywide for R29.