QUARTERLY STATISTICS
Reduction in murder and sexual crimes tempered by a slew of less impressive statistics
There was good news, but mostly bad, as the South Africa Police Service briefed Parliament on Friday on the crime statistics for April to June 2023. There were fewer murders overall and fewer sexual offences, but more women and children were murdered during the period under review. There was also a spike in attempted murder, both overall and of women and children.
South Africa’s overall murder rate declined and there were fewer sexual offences from April to June 2023, the South African Police Services (SAPS) told Parliament on Friday during a briefing on the latest crime statistics. However, the statistics reveal more women and children were murdered in the same period, and there was also a spike in attempted murder.
The murder rate declined by 3.1%, from 6,424 cases in the same period in 2022 to 6,228, meaning 196 fewer people were murdered over three months.
There were 239 fewer sexual offences – a 2% drop – from 11,855 cases in the previous year to 11,616 cases.
Attempted murder increased by 7%, with 393 more cases, rising from 5,576 to 5,969.
There was also a spike in robbery with aggravating circumstances of 1%, from 35,233 cases in the previous year to 35,579 cases.
Common robbery cases increased by 839 from 10,565 cases to 11,404 or 7.9%.
There was an 8.2% increase in assault with intent to cause grievous bodily harm (GBH), rising from 34,635 cases in the previous year to 37,491.
The decrease in the murder rate is the first since the dawn of the Covid-19 period, but Police Minister Bheki Cele said that was no cause for celebration, because every life matters.
The stats reveal that firearms and knives were among the most used murder weapons and that some of the murders took place in educational institutions and in taverns.
Women and children
Murders of women spiked by 4.7% with 40 more cases, from 855 in the same period in 2022 to 895 this year.
Assault GBH against women increased by 9.7%, from 11,734 in the previous year to 12,872.
There were 50 more child murders, a 20.6% increase, rising from 243 during the same period last year to 293.
Attempted murders of women and children increased by 15.3%, with 354 cases registered in 2023 as opposed to 307 in the same period last year, while assault GBH against children dropped by 6% from 1,524 cases to 1,432 .
Looting and alcohol
Cele said that during the recent violent taxi strike in the Western Cape looters mainly targeted Tops Liquor, which pointed to a serious alcohol problem in the country.
“They went for Tops, which tells you that South Africans and alcohol … we will have to look and work together on that,” he said.
Cele hailed some of the police interventions for their role in bringing down some of the crime numbers.
He cited Operation Shanela, which was launched in May. He said the operation’s value and impact was huge, noting that it had netted 99,754 suspects accused of crimes, including murder. Some of the suspects have already been convicted.
Other interventions involved operations targeting high-crime areas, tracking and tracing of wanted criminals, and hunting and arresting serial rapists.
Police killings
Cele also noted the continued murder of police officers by criminals, adding that keeping South Africa safe came at a high cost to the men and women in blue.
According to Cele, nine police killers have been handed nine life terms plus 158 years in jail.
Cele said 31 police officers were killed in three months – 10 were on duty while 21 were killed off duty.
“It can’t be that 31 police officers are killed in three months,” Cele said.
Commentary
Asked what South Africa should make of the latest crime stats, crime specialist Mary de Haas said three months was too short a period within which to observe any meaningful trends.
“Statistically speaking you can’t read much you don’t know into three months [of] stats; they can go up one quarter down the next … You need a few years of stats to evaluate upward or downward trends,” De Haas said.
She said there were problems with most stats, especially relating to gender-based violence and rape, because of reporting impediments and also the fact that some victims do not report for fear of being blamed.
De Haas said that as far as she knew police stats are not independently audited.
“As far as I know, there is no independent audit of stats and I know of cases of bad stats-keeping or possible deliberate cover-up.” DM
Police stats are not solid ,especially at station level,they manipulate
Murders reduced with 3% but attemted murders increased with 7%. So the citizens just dodge the bullets better. Nothing to lift your hat for.
Mary de Haas’s point is important. The great British criminologist Prof. Leon Radzinowicz observed that there are three orders of liars — liars, damn liars, and statistics, and that criminal statistics are prime members of the third order. Starting from the moment a crime is known of, many decisions have to be taken and so the figures reflect the number of convictions, not crimes. For example, if I am a victim or observer what, if anything, should I do about the matter? If I am a police officer, how should I deal with what I have been told or observed and what is my working culture? Accordingly, does a change in the number of convictions mean that more or fewer crimes are being committed, or that the whole justice system is working better or worse, or is more or less trusted or likely to be invoked? Further, in view of their unreliability, what is the point of publishing quarterly figures? The best way for politicians to bring down criminal statistics is for them to be effective in leading South Africa towards a fair and just society. If South Africans felt better about the country and its criminal justice system, we would report crime more readily — and, of course, the statistics might wrongly show that crime is worse. Criminologists quake in fear when politicians start grinding their axes on these statistics, as Minister Cele does, and I admire Mary de Haas’s restrained comments. Perhaps we need to prohibit elected figures from public discussion of criminal statistics.
Police focus on arrests instead of arrests with a successful conviction rate