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ANC’s coalition framework paints a bleak picture for DA and EFF in next year’s polls

ANC’s coalition framework paints a bleak picture for DA and EFF in next year’s polls
The ANC’s head of political education, David Makhura. (Photo: Gallo Images / Papi Morake)

While the ANC believes that its two biggest opponents are likely to remain stagnant, it says community-based organisations, independent candidates and new parties are the biggest threats it will face in the 2024 general election.

The ANC’s coalition framework states that it is likely that the rise of new forums within the political space will contribute to the “cannibalising” of existing parties.

The party’s research paints a bleak picture for the DA and the EFF, finding they will not grow beyond their current support.

“New parties and community-based organisations are cannibalising existing parties and are gaining seats in municipalities, provincial legislature and national Parliament and there is increased fragmentation of the party system.

“The advent of independent candidates in the 2024 elections may increase cannibalisation and fragmentation of provincial and national government. Whether these political developments will improve the quality of democracy and development outcomes is still open for debate,” the plan reads.

The framework was first presented by the ANC’s head of political education, David Makhura, at the party’s most recent National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting.

The paper is the first of its kind for the governing party, which has been dealing with coalitions informally over the years. The decision to look into viable coalition models was taken at the ANC’s 55th national conference at Nasrec last year.

Read more in Daily Maverick: Was Zuma right that the ANC will rule forever or can the opposition parties get it together to form a coalition government in 2024?

The framework states that while it is clear that the ANC is on the decline, it will remain the largest party. The governing party garnered 57.5% of the votes cast at the previous national elections in 2019.

“The EFF is growing dramatically but is now levelling off and reaching a ceiling. The IFP declined drastically between the 2009 and 2014 elections but is now showing signs of resurrection in KwaZulu-Natal, at the expense of the ANC.

“The Freedom Front Plus is showing resilience and growing among Afrikaners, at the expense of the DA. Good and Patriotic Alliance and community-based parties have been gaining ground in the coloured communities across the country at the expense of both the ANC and DA,” according to the framework document.

The party set out a 12-point plan of strategies and observations which explain the rules of engagement for dealing with coalitions:

  1. Coalitions must be based on a common minimum programme.
  2. Coalition partners must commit to shared values which include stability, accountability, ethics and integrity.
  3. The party that has won the most votes should lead the coalition in the municipalities, and executive positions should be allocated in proportion to the votes obtained by coalition partners.
  4. A threshold should be introduced for representation in councils and executive committees so that there is a degree of legitimacy with regard to what amount of electoral support qualifies a party or candidate to be part of councils and coalition governments.
  5. The law should be amended to make sure that public administration is insulated from coalition deal-making and bargaining and motions of no confidence.
  6. Coalitions should be more transparent and accountable to people in their jurisdiction by giving quarterly reports and accounting to citizens on service delivery and milestones.
  7. Where no party has a clear majority, the executive system should be introduced using Section 12 notices.
  8. The ANC will prioritise working with parties, community-based organisations, service delivery forums, and independent candidates committed to stability, social justice and ending apartheid colonialism in all forms.
  9. The ANC will not form a coalition in any municipality for the sake of ganging up against other parties.
  10. The ANC will not preclude the possibility of working with any party in a coalition so long as it is in the public interest.
  11. There should be an independent dispute resolution mechanism established to deal with any disputes among coalition partners.
  12. The formula for allocating PR seats in councils should be amended to reflect the will of the people.

Read more in Daily Maverick: A dramatic Friday as City of Joburg elects Dada Morero as mayor after Mpho Phalatse gets the chop

The third principle has already caused friction in the ranks of the governing party. On Tuesday, the ANC’s Johannesburg caucus refused to toe the party line and vote in Al Jama-ah member Kabelo Gwandanda as executive mayor over its regional chair Dada Morero, leading to the adjournment of the council sitting until Friday.

Al Jama-ah has three seats in Johannesburg while the ANC has 91 councillors. DM


Comments - Please in order to comment.

  • Joe Soap says:

    Sounds like rules the ANC has had to make to protect itself from itself. I really feal the worlds current politics is ready for a major overall, we cannot have the worst of society in politics to tell the rest of us what to do, hell most of this bunch should be in prison.

    • Jane Crankshaw says:

      Quite right…but where and how to start the positive revolution?
      Too many uneducated, illiterate voters who don’t understand the principles of economics doesn’t help. Perhaps the voting system needs to change – additional votes depending on your taxpaying status?

  • Robert Pegg says:

    If only the ANC would follow these rules, we could all sleep better at night. The ANC seems to have lost control of its own representatives as witnessed with the Joburg Mayor saga.

  • Mike Meyer says:

    “Coalition partners must commit to shared values which include stability, accountability, ethics and integrity.”
    Well, that pretty much excludes the cANCer from any coalition they might think of forming.

  • Richard Baker says:

    The most worrying issue is that the other grouping which might have formed around the DA is clearly doomed due to inability to put differences aside at this make or break time for the country.
    The DA cannot accept that it will not grow further nor rid itself of toxic personalities. We shall continue to be left with fragmented opposition groupings who cannot work together. Due to intransigence they have left it far too late to create anything meaningful or attractive to a large segment of society before the 2024 elections. Fear the Worst!

  • Change is good sa says:

    If the citizens of SA do not want the ANC in power, they should not vote for anyone who states that they would go into coalition with the ANC. We would just prolong our dismal circumstances. If one is starting a new party or standing as an individual, one would assume this is because you want to oust the current ruling party, so why would they go into a coalition with the ANC. Is it a way to get to the feeding trough quicker, or is it ego or immaturity in not being able to work one’s way up through the ranks of a larger and more disciplined parties like the DA, the IFP, Action SA, ACDP, FF and COPE. Let’s add more to this list.
    One would hope that all the individual candidates who are putting themselves forward as real opposition. This would mean that the ANC has no chance at all and for goodness sake, they do not deserve a second chance.

  • Bernard Katz says:

    Surely this cannot be a criterion?

    “Coalition partners must commit to shared values which include stability, accountability, ethics and integrity.”

  • Tim Spring says:

    These guys

  • jcdville stormers says:

    The ANC is a disgrace to the term “freedom fighters”,criminals might use them as allies, but with honest people they got zero credibility

  • Confucious Says says:

    Setting the stage for King Maker parties now!

  • Grumpy Old Man says:

    As far as policy papers go this is a sound one! That it has been met with so much scepticism is because hardly anyone believes, even if formally adopted, it will be adhered too. In fact this will undoubtedly prove to be the case when it falls ‘at the very first hurdle faced’ vis a vis the City of Johannesburg.
    Indeed as soon as I heard Fikile had been sent to negotiate agreement with Panyaza & team the outcome of these deliberations could have been predicted with almost absolute certainty – with Principle sacrificed at the alter of self interest.
    What is interesting is that this policy paper intends that coalitions be value based & reflect the will of the people whereas Panyaza’s motivation is to hold onto power at any cost! The next time David authors a policy paper he would be well advised to include a Disclaimer stating ‘this set of recommendations is ideal based & premised on a ‘if wishes were fishes’ assumption of our being a capable, coherent, honest, unified, principle driven party that is capable & committed to living the values it espouses’

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