ANALYSIS
Ramaphosa’s incoming Cabinet reshuffle — a pack of wild cards with no clear path to adequacy or delivery
There are real limits to what President Cyril Ramaphosa’s actions are within the realm of reason. He can’t just act against those who oppose him, and he cannot just replace them with allies.
President Cyril Ramaphosa on Sunday promised that the renewal of the ANC was now “irreversible and irrevocable”. There may be no better way for him to put his money where his mouth is than by conducting a major Cabinet reshuffle and removing those with big question marks against them.
But there are limits to how far he can go. Some of the questions a reshuffle poses are actually vexed political decisions that can have major repercussions. Within all of this, at least one person who is in Cabinet now, Mineral Resources and Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe, is likely to significantly enhance his political power and negative influence on South Africa’s energy policy.
Normally, it is difficult to predict if, or when, a president will reshuffle their Cabinet. Changing a Cabinet is entirely within a president’s power. They do not have to consult anyone, and those who are removed have no legal recourse — they can only ask how high they need to jump. There is no legal duty on a president to explain their decisions in a reshuffle.
In the real world, a reshuffle is all about politics. It was generally understood in the past that an ANC president would not reshuffle a Cabinet without consulting at least the top six national officials. When Jacob Zuma failed to do this, in December 2015 and March 2017, it was clear that he was acting of his own accord.
Still, this is one of those rare occasions when a reshuffle can be said to be imminent, mainly because the ANC’s constitution states that the position of secretary-general is full-time, which means Fikile Mbalula can no longer be transport minister.
But it is also because the results of the ANC’s conference have changed the political equations that some kind of action must be taken.
For example, it appears that Paul Mashatile is keen to replace David Mabuza as Deputy President, after his election as deputy leader of the ANC.
Also, certain people who are in Cabinet have lost significant power.
Mabuza is one example, while ministers Lindiwe Sisulu, Pravin Gordhan and Naledi Pandor are no longer in the National Executive Committee.
The question then is: How far will Ramaphosa go? And, perhaps: How far does he want to go?
Easy questions and difficult ones
Some questions are relatively easy to answer.
Mbalula will be replaced. Mabuza has been shown to have a very limited constituency, which means removing him may cost Ramaphosa virtually nothing. Replacing him with Mashatile will be a net gain.
But some questions are more difficult.
Take Tourism Minister Lindiwe Sisulu.
She has claimed that Ramaphosa lied about the outcome of a meeting with her and has attacked his political positions. Despite that, Ramaphosa did not act against her in 2022. That was a clear sign of her near non-existent constituency within the ruling party.
If Ramaphosa is not prepared to act against someone who attacked him publicly, accused him of lying, and has now been shown to have no one to protect her within the party, then when will he act?
The Sisulu question may actually be a question of his own political strength and self-confidence. If he does not act against someone so weak, that in turn could lead to more people in Cabinet feeling they can also publicly criticise him and get away with it. So, to refuse to act against Sisulu would be a clear sign of weakness.
But some of Ramaphosa’s presumed allies, such as Gordhan and Pandor could, arguably, be in a similar position.
They also do not appear to have strong personal constituencies. It could be suggested, fairly or unfairly, that Gordhan has mismanaged rolling blackouts and should be removed.
Some in the ANC could claim that Pandor is responsible for giving slightly mixed messages on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and is out of step with the party’s true and undying support for Russia.
If Ramaphosa were to move against Sisulu, he could be accused of protecting his allies.
The question of Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma
Then there is Cogta Minister Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma.
When Ramaphosa defeated her at the 2017 Nasrec conference he was quick to embrace her and include her in his Cabinet.
Since then she has publicly criticised him, saying he should resign over the Phala Phala scandal.
But this may require a decision from the ANC’s new NEC. This is because Dlamini Zuma defied ANC instructions when she voted to continue with Parliament’s process investigating Phala Phala.
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Here, the issue is whether the ANC itself can tolerate a Cabinet minister who defied its instructions, rather than whether Ramaphosa can tolerate such a person.
That said, if both the NEC and Ramaphosa allow her to remain in Cabinet, it could give a permission slip to other ministers to defy party instructions in future, with serious consequences for the ANC’s coherence as a political party.
At the same time, removing Dlamini Zuma might well be seen as an attack on a particular faction of the ANC. This makes the problem more complicated.
Of course, as at least one political analyst has already suggested, it is possible that Dlamini Zuma could resign from her position, to make a political point.
If she did this, she may be the first person to resign from Cabinet on a point of principle since we became a democracy nearly 30 years ago — a telling revelation.
But this may not be even the most difficult question for Ramaphosa.
If he conducts a wide-ranging reshuffle, how would he manage Deputy State Security Minister Zizi Kodwa?
Kodwa has been a strong ally of Ramaphosa, and the political power of that ministry is well-known. And yet he faces a finding from the Zondo Commission that he should not have received payments from the IT company EOH.
Others, such as David Mahlobo, appear to have moved from supporting Zuma during the State Capture era to supporting Ramaphosa. If Mahlobo were to be removed from his position as deputy minister of water affairs and sanitation, could it look like he has received no political reward for his switch of “heart”?
A further, crucial limitation
While all of this may pose vexing questions for Ramaphosa, there is a further, crucial limitation on his possible actions.
Any person who is removed will have to be replaced by a member of Parliament.
And the current group of MPs representing the ANC were selected through a list process over which former ANC secretary-general Ace Magashule had a strong influence.
This means that there may be very few people for Ramaphosa to appoint to replace those whom he removes.
To put it another way, if he did remove Dlamini Zuma, who could replace her and also be able to turn around local government?
Then there is at least one person who is probably untouchable and in a position to demand increased responsibility, which in political terms, means increased power.
Gwede Mantashe was re-elected as chair of the ANC (albeit by a very slim margin). The same conference which re-elected him also decided that Eskom should be moved from the Public Enterprises Ministry to the Energy Ministry.
This means that Mantashe would now have political authority over Eskom. With that could come control over the future direction of the state-owned enterprise.
Several analysts have made the point that one of André de Ruyter’s major achievements as CEO was to point Eskom in the direction of the green transition, to move its future away from coal towards renewables.
But Mantashe will now have carte blanche to influence that direction. This could realise the worst fears of those who support the move towards renewables and those who, foolishly, were hoping to live without Nigerian-style rolling blackouts.
Mantashe’s apparent increase of — what was already considerable — power is truly bad news for South Africa,
All of these elements show there are real limits to what Ramaphosa’s actions are within the realm of reason. He can’t just act against those who oppose him, and he cannot just replace them with allies.
Ramaphosa has, however, set a high bar for himself. His reshuffle is likely to be the first significant political act of his second, and final, term as ANC leader. He has said publicly that the renewal of the ANC cannot be stopped and it is the party’s most important priority.
If he fails to make major changes now, if he fails to remove those who have publicly opposed this agenda, it could suggest, within the first two months of his new term, that this promise is empty and hollow and he would instead become South Africa’s earliest lame duck President ever. DM
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Predicting CRs reshuffle is really a throw of the dice. I believe that he will definitely not spare the rod and clean up the princess, the ex queen of Nkandla and The Cat must go too. So will Pandora. Gwede has to be moved sidewards to get his hands out of the cookie Jar and replaced by PG and Eskom moved to energy as alluded to by Gwede. Gwede could well replace NDZ. David moves out of the massage parlour and there will be some new young faces – hopefully with some qualifications replacing the dinosaurs. That is the only way forward for the ANC – new young faces replacing the old guard.
How can there be anyone with qualifications? In 1976 “ liberation before education” was the cry of the ANC. And so it came to pass etc etc.
Whatever decision he makes, it will tell us whether he is a total wimp or has still some backbone left. I am looking forward to seeing his “new” cabinet.
Conundrums within conundrums. Certainly, Gwede Mantashe, who most agree has been an awful brake on sustainable provision of electricity and of the renewable transition we so desperately need, and would help to keep the lights on, is the biggest headache. Clearly Ramaphosa needed his support to retain his position and with the support he apparently commands within the ANC, cannot simply fire him. But there is no future for the country if the mismanagement to date of the electricity generation and distribution isn’t urgently resolved. While there’s little question that Mantashe is a major reason for the predicament we continue to find ourselves in.
A great reason for thanking certain people for their dedicated service to the nation would be to slash the size of the cabinet. We must have one of the biggest cabinets on earth.
I have almost no confidence in Ramaphosa doing anything useful in a reshuffle: he has proven over and again that maintaining party ‘unity’ is his top priority. If he were to reshuffle based on a desire for a competent cabinet, surely (apart from those mentioned above) Bheki Cele would be out, useless as he is, along with both Education ministers, who have achieved nothing in terms of providing good quality education across the board; Aaron Motsoaledi, who has ruined Home Affairs much as he did Health; Nathi Mhtethwa, another serial cabinet minister of no apparent ability; Patricia de Lille, achieved nothing in terms of infrastructure delivery (just that dodgy border fence), Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams who’s only achievement in all her posts has been to lie about her travel and lunch with a woman beater; Thandi Modise, has no clue about her portfolio; Maite Nkoana-Mashabane – any idea of anything her ministry has achieved?; Gwede Mantashe, the single biggest handbrake on energy security in South Africa; Pravin Gordhan and Ebrahim Patel, both of whom are far too wedded to ideology over practicality to serve in a 21st century cabinet; probably others but don’t know enough about hte performances to judge. And surely there must enough reasonably competent people – not asking for rock stars here – to fill in from the ranks of parliament?
This is exactly how it SHOULD be done
Don’t put any hope in Cyril Ramaphosa. It is not his prerogative to select a new cabinet, but the NEC’s decision. Most important it is for them to maintain their powers. You cannot expect anything from these Mafiosis than Mafia-decisions!
Sadly it is going to be a compromise which ever way it goes and the President will continue to act in the interests of the party instead of the country. The problems with Government, SOEs and Municipalities will continue until we can find another party to reform the country. The chances if this happening of course is neigh impossible. We will become just like the rest of Africa. A failed state with more and more starving and desperate people and less and less businesses and private individuals to pay the taxes to sustain them. If ever we needed strong and experienced leadership irrespective of colour, now is the time. But don’t hold your breath.
Peter, a casual drive through South Africa shows that we’ve become like most of the rest of the continent already, except in many other countries they’re moving in the other direction – development, infrastructure delivery, concessioning of SOEs to private operators, cutting red tape etc. Still plenty of corruption and a long way to go, but we’re definitely sinking against the tide, as it were.
The whole country knows who the crooks and clowns in the Cabinet are but Cyril (“The Tortoise”) Ramaphosa needs a month to meditate on a reshuffle – or, in plainer English, to engage in the usual squalid horsetrading.
Interesting article (and if you are correct) reflects that cabinet ministers are merely an extension of the cadre deployment policy. People are selected because of what they have done, and can do in future, FOR THE PRESIDENT AND THE ANC. Surely cabinet ministers should be selected based on their ability to deliver to the South African public? (Appropriate qualifications, experience, and integrity) Ironically, that type of quality service delivery would be good for the ANC.
Why do you suggest that CR must keep looking over his political shoulder? He has now been re-elected as president of the ANC for the next four years, barring unforeseen circumstances. One anticipates that if the ANC loses power next year, CR will gratefully throw in the towel and retire to a well earned rest from politics. The only possible chance for the ANC to retain power is for CR to try to woo back the electorate now by acting decisively against the RET faction and all its undesirable fellow travellers.
A cluster of thieves being reshuffled !
Lindiwe Sisulu is still a part of the NEC Stephen, she was elected at 52nd place (per the ANC’s website). The fact she was elected tells you everything you need to know about the ANC.
On another note: Gwede’s likely push for increased power ironically probably means less literal power for South Africans in the future.
And finally, and unfortunately, for those thinking this cabinet reshuffle may herald some sort of a turning point for South Africa – traditionally cabinet is drawn from the ANC NEC and you will be hard pressed to find a list of individuals in South Africa (and probably the world) more mediocre or with more baggage than these people. It is truly scary stuff.
I think we are missing the biggest issue, the cabinet is too big and bloated for our country. 28 Ministers, the United Kingdom has 21 and they are looking to streamline to 18. Surely it is not just about reshuffle but also renewal and renewal must mean re-size the cabinet.
Energy is a major issue but will not be solved if Eskom is not privatised. Suggest the following
1. President, 2 Deputy President, 3 Energy, Business, Industry and Digital Communications ( Replacing MRE, SB and Trade and Industry, Communications) Appoint business friendly, enlightened Minister from the Private sector
4. International Affairs, 5 Home Affairs, 6 Finance, 7 Agriculture, Human Settlements and Land reform, 8 Health, 9 Defence, 10 Public Enterprises, 11 Justice and Police, 12 Minister in Presidency and Public Works, 13 Tourism, Forestry, Environment Affairs, 14 Social Development, Woman, Youth and Disabilities, 15 Transport, 16 Public Service, 17 Sports, Art and Culture, 18 Water and Sanitation , 19 Higher Education, 20 Basic Education .
With all due respect this is just analysis paralysis. CR was elected to make difficult decisions and right now he needs to choose his country over his party. There will be far more support for him from the citizens of the country than the members of his party if he does what the country so desperately needs.
Sorry Stephen I feel I must correct your statement where you claim that Zuma acted on his own when he shuffled the cabinet in 2015 and 2017. This is untrue. It is a matter of record that he was working in concert with the Guptas who were clearly part of the decision of who to dismiss and which candidate to step in.
Why waste time and energy even trying to analyse and write about these issues or comment on them.
As long as the ANC ( no matter how constituted) is in government,, SA is on a one way slope to complete and utter failure.
Their underlying and fundamental statist socialist policies, blind adherence to idealism instead of growth and pathological hatred of business and the private sector have destroyed the economy.
None of the above have changed despite yet more empty words and promises of late.
In addition the ANC and its deployed public sector simply does not have the competence to manage a modern, technically based economy/society.
A complete re-alignment is required and the likes of the Rivonia Circle might be the start of that.
DM -please give us more on this-Songezo Zibi has something useful to say!
Lindiwe Sisulu is still in the ANC NEC as number 63 if one is not mistaken. The fact that she is still an NEC member is being misrepresented here. The second issue is have delusions of grandeur regarding Mantashe. He is the National Chairperson of the ANC and very senior to Pravin Gordhan and in terms of the ANC Constitution he is responsible for policy in the ANC. A very powerful position captured in 2017 by journalists who have a discerning eye and were very conscious of his power. He is part of those who decide Cabinet posts and the author ought to know this from the Zuma years when he fired Gordhan and Nene. Cyril may theoretically in terms of the Constitution have members of the Cabinet serving at his pleasure as the country President. Because he is a deployee in our political parlance, he cannot act alone but with the top 7. Yes, it is illegal for him to do so in terms of the Constitution but these illegal acts are happening anyway until they are stopped by courts. For Stephen, he has to accept Mantashe as a Minister who according to Ramaphosa’s interview, Eskom will now fall under. To be brutally frank for those who are attacking him for at least saying what is correct in my view, they have to live with him for the next three years at least as Minister responsible for Energy and Eskom. Mantashe is going to continue to support coal or the ANC must forget about Mpumalanga and Limpopo votes it is that simple.
You are an astute political observer, sir. However, whatever the bargaining and manoeuvrings, there is nothing but disdain and disrespect for the entire leadership. This ship of fools is barely afloat as it lurches onwards through stormy waters, without any sense of direction and holed beneath the waterline. The SS South Africa as Mills and Hartley so clearly have identified is foundering on the reef of platitudes and ideological inertia. It is no longer a matter of if, but when it will reach absolute rock bottom.