SOUTH AFRICAN SCENARIOS OP-ED
SA’s future: The good, the bad and the ugly — and a fistful of cents
Key decisions made by political leaders and voters over the next three years will send South Africa on a path of accelerating decline or offer the hope of renewal, but it will be a tough road.
During the late 1980s, Clem Sunter through his “High Road, Low Road” scenario influenced many to engage on a path of political change. Fortunately, enough South Africans listened and implemented the required change that put South Africa on a high road from apartheid for 15 years.
Sunter and his team outlined the problems and made the options clear.
There is a need, today, for similar prescience and integrity in evaluating South Africa’s options. That “South Africa’s future is in the balance” has become cliched is a reflection of its salience.
The crisis is all around. Our economy is woefully failing to create jobs and the majority of young people have no future in the world of work, bereft of suitable skills and lacking opportunities. Electricity supply is precarious to the extent that we have invented a term — load shedding — to explain its devastating frequency. Our foreign relations are misaligned with the interests of our largest trade and investment partners, and unfocused on Africa.
Leadership turmoil
On top of this, the country’s political leadership is in turmoil. President Cyril Ramaphosa, once believed to be the person to finally lead South Africa out of the darkness of State Capture, corruption and economic failure, has struggled to turn things around. Now he finds himself battling to put the Phala Phala scandal in clear perspective.
All of this has created a climate of extreme uncertainty. Where is the country going? Is the economy doomed to failure as Eskom switches off the lights? What will happen if Ramaphosa is charged in court or defeated at the ANC’s conference, which begins on Friday? What will happen if the 2024 election fails to produce an outright winner? What are the choices available to South Africa’s leaders and its citizens alike?
Coalition
Our fieldwork shows that a coalition government is likely, ushering in a new era of multiparty contestation after three decades of single-party dominance. Indeed, it is the preference of three-quarters of South Africans, with nearly half favouring a coalition without the ANC or between the Democratic Alliance and the ANC.
But will such a coalition be able to reverse the tide of economic stagnation and corruption and turn on the lights? A lot hangs on the coherence of those at the centre, on whether those who favour constitutionalism and the rule of law are able to suspend hostilities and band together to save South Africa.
Based on research into the country’s economic position, the positioning of political forces and the attitudes of South African voters, our Good, Bad, Ugly and Fistful of Cents scenarios attempt to draw fact-based conclusions about the country’s trajectory.
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Here, three key events will shape South Africa’s future over the next three years:
- The decisions taken by the ANC’s conference later this week;
- The decisions taken by voters at the 2024 election; and
- The decisions taken by political leaders about coalitions as the ANC slides below 50% of the vote.
In the immediate term, the ANC’s decision to back either Ramaphosa or his rival Zweli Mkhize will set the scene for the 2024 election, an event likely to bring momentous change to SA politics.
Then South Africa will either emerge stronger and recommitted to our constitutional order and economic advancement or we will find ourselves on the path charted by Venezuela, Zimbabwe and others that have abandoned democracy for self-enrichment.
Four possible solutions are imaginable:
- The Good
The “Good” scenario sees those who support constitutionalism, the rule of law and reforms aimed at spurring on economic growth — the silent majority of South Africans — putting aside their differences and building a powerful new reform movement at the centre of South African politics. In this scenario, South Africa is proudly a constitutional democracy and seeks to build relations with others who share the same values on the world stage. This approach could be taken by a coalition of opposition parties with or without the ANC or by ANC reformers if they are able to take full control of the party and act decisively.
- The Bad
In this scenario, the ANC’s Radical Economic Transformation (RET) wing wins the internal battle for power, leading to the ANC’s electoral support dropping far below 50% in the 2024 election. This leads to a coalition between the ANC and EFF, who are aligned with the RET faction on policy. The result will be a rapid and precipitous decline in the country’s finances as nationalisation is implemented and the prosecution of party bosses for corruption ceases. Malign external actors such as Russia entrench themselves within the government and the country abandons its Constitution and democratic values. Investors will flee, sending the currency into freefall and causing hyperinflation, leading to economic collapse.
- The Ugly
The “Ugly” scenario represents a continuation of the status quo. The ANC remains divided and unable to chart a clear path to reform and the rule of law. The energy crisis continues to accelerate, the economy continues on a path of anaemic economic growth and joblessness continues to rise. Investment continues to underperform and the government remains wary of the private sector.
- A Fistful of Cents
The “Fistful of Cents” scenario is a close relative of the “Ugly” scenario, except that cronyism rises as elite extraction accelerates as the state loses its attempt to rein in corruption and graft. The result is greater inequality and joblessness while the elite thrives by extracting rents, legal and illegal, from a sliding economy.
***
The future is not preordained. Citizens are not spectators in the theatre of politics. On the contrary, the right decisions by citizens, party members and political leaders can water the shoots of constitutionalism and democracy and propel the country on to the road of economic reform and growth. While coalition politics looks inevitable, the effect on the ANC is less certain: Whether the party of liberation becomes part of the solution or the principal problem for South Africa’s development is the choice of the ANC and its leadership and, ultimately, the South African electorate. DM
To see the presentation of the full scenarios go to https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org/
Greg Mills is the director of The Brenthurst Foundation and Roelf Meyer is the head of the In Transformation Initiative.
So, basically – bad, badder and worst? Gods help us!
“Gods help us!” In my perception, this is one of the core problems of the South African misery. In coversations I keep hearing sentences like “we can’t change anything, ist’s the way it ist”. How capable of suffering are the South African people? In contrast, for example, in China, in Iran or in the former East Germany there are free elections in SA and the constitutional right to peaceful demostrations. I don’t understand the widespread mentality of suffering and waiting for God’s help instead of realizing that God gaves us our minds to use and act on. Why the hell does it take more than 30 years, to give an incompetent ruling party the opportunity to reinvent itselve from the ground up in Opposition?
The most critical issue is “the right decisions by citizens”. The problem being is that the ‘citizens’ are in the main politically ignorant, This could be purposely designed by the ANC as it would further their needs to remain in power. The majority of the ‘citizens’ are reliant of social grants and are led to believe that these grants come only from the ANC. Their lies the problem!!
Too Late. The damage done is irreparible.
I, for one remain optimistic as I can’t determine the outcome. I can only observe the machinations of public figures who are either corrupt, incompetent or in it for personal gain versus the forces for good, those dedicated public servants who are trying to serve the taxpaying public. I have seen the welcome growth of the black middle class in the last decade – they surely will be voting for the latter.
A very good commentary that unfortunately is not in the mainstream media because we need an informed and educate public. The most important comment is that citizens are not spectators in the theatre of politics and it is a hearting and welcome development as we hear them on television saying that 2024 is coming and they will decide. The point one wants to raise in the key developments is the emergence of new political parties and actors in the political landscape that would contribute to the shape of the future South Africa. The emergence of ActionSA that will be contesting elections at national and Provincial level. The emergence of the Rivonia Circle and its intentions to contest elections is also important and would in fact determine by how much the ANC would fall below 50% and the electricity emergency that would be clearly on the ballot in 2024.
The ANC will not have a winner takes all conference as nominations indicate for both the top six and the NEC. To harp on RET this and that it does not help because any political party has different poles and to expect homogeneity in the ANC is political naivety. That era has passed with Zuma. The key is whether the different factions can agree on priorities.