POWER CRISIS
Power station breakdowns and less money to buy diesel force Eskom to escalate rolling blackouts to Stage 6
A combination of Eskom running out of money to buy diesel for its emergency generation fleet and further breakdowns at its power stations has pushed rolling blackouts to Stage 6 for the fourth time in 2022. In some parts, that could mean no power for up to 10 hours a day.
Eskom has escalated nationwide power cuts to Stage 6 for the fourth time in 2022 in what has proved to be the worst year on record for rolling blackouts.
Eskom announced that rolling blackouts will be increased to Stage 6 from Wednesday, 7 December, until Friday, 9 December, as its power stations suffered more breakdowns.
Stage 6 means 6,000 megawatts are dropped from the grid to avoid the system from becoming unstable and collapsing. In Gauteng, where rolling blackout intervals last up to four hours, Eskom customers could be without power for an average of 10 hours a day.
It is the fourth time this year that Eskom has intensified rolling blackouts to Stage 6, with the power utility doing so in June when its workers downed tools and again in July and September when more of its generating units broke down.
The latest bout of rolling blackouts hasn’t been explained in detail, with Eskom only saying that more generating units at its power stations have broken down.
One of the reasons behind the intensified rolling blackouts is that Eskom has run out of money to buy diesel to run its emergency generation fleet.
Nine months into its current financial year, which ends on 31 March 2023, Eskom has already exceeded its diesel budget of R12-billion.
During this period, it had an initial diesel budget of R6.1-billion, which was later revised to R11.1-billion. By November, the power utility had spent R12-billion on diesel.
Read more in Daily Maverick: “Rolling blackouts set to worsen and reach higher stages as Eskom runs out of money for diesel supplies”
In a statement issued by Eskom on Wednesday – five hours after it plunged the country deeper into rolling blackouts – the power utility said it has been forced to “strictly preserve the remaining diesel for any extreme emergency situations such as multiple, simultaneous trips of generators”.
Eskom was recently awarded a consignment of 50 million litres of diesel by state-owned PetroSA – a short-term intervention that probably fed the power utility’s emergency generation fleet for only 15 days.
Read more in Daily Maverick: “Found: Fifty million litres of diesel for fifteen days of relief – but source of funding future supplies remains uncertain”
A combination of Eskom running out of diesel and constant breakdowns means that upscaled rolling blackouts will persist for the next six to 12 months. This is arguably a conservative estimate as Eskom’s power stations continue to face unprecedented breakdowns while South Africa is not adding substantial power to the grid from renewable energy sources.
Eskom said generating units at six power stations faced rapid breakdowns since Tuesday evening. This happened at Mpumalanga-based power stations including Grootvlei, Duvha, Kendal, Kriel, Arnot and Tutuka.
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Eskom said two units at Arnot and a unit each at Camden, Kendal and Kriel power stations have been delayed in returning to service. Further worsening Eskom’s generation capacity is that units are undergoing repairs at Koeberg and Kusile.
To avoid rolling blackouts, Eskom has to limit plant breakdowns to 9,500MW of its total generation capacity. But in recent days, breakdowns have been substantially higher, reaching more than 10,000MW. By Wednesday, breakdowns stood at 19,052MW.
The escalation to Stage 6 rolling blackouts comes at a time when most industries are preparing to shut down for the December holiday season and consumers are flocking to their holiday destinations. The demand for electricity should be reduced over the holiday period and be about 4,000MW lower than normal.
The intensified power cuts also come a day after news of South Africa’s economy escaping a technical recession in the third quarter despite the power disruption during the period. A technical recession is when the economy fails to grow for two consecutive quarters. After contracting 0.7% in the second quarter, the economy grew 1.6% in the third quarter, defying market expectations of an increase of between 0.6% and 0.8%.
Read more in Daily Maverick: “Stats SA’s third-quarter GDP data give a glimmer of hope”
Some economists don’t expect the economy to have the same growth during the fourth quarter considering that rolling blackouts persisted, and Transnet port and rail operations were disrupted by strikes during the period. DM/BM
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I really do wonder how much of this capacity breakdowns is due to sabotage. We know this is happening, just not the actual scope of it.
We never get a reason for the breakdowns. Design flaws? Inability to fix things properly? Sabotage? Failure to do preventative maintenance? Old equipment breaking unpredictability?
Be very interesting to know
Ironically, imposing load shedding is ensuring that all of us get some electricity for some of the time. For now. Without load shedding, the system will tank and we will be out of power for days or even weeks. Whatever the reasons, the current fleet is now decrepit, and there are insufficient internal skills and resources or time to do the necessary major work to restore reliability. We need more generating capacity. Unless the way is cleared for meaningful private sector involvement (investment, ownership, management and operation) the situation will not improve. There are not going to be any saviours unless huge policy changes take place.