The difficult situation that Gwede Mantashe appears to find himself in is due to a combination of factors, including the changing ANC and the sheer unpopularity of the role he plays as minister of mineral resources and energy, and coal’s chief cheerleader. At the same time, it seems obvious that the ANC also misses his abilities and experience in the position of secretary-general.

When the results of the ANC’s branch nominations process were released last week, the biggest surprise was that Mantashe faces an uphill battle to retain his position as ANC chair. He won the support of 979 branches, compared to Stanley Mathabatha’s 1,492.

However, it is foolish to count Mantashe out, ever. 

For starters, there are three contenders in the race for the position, as David Masondo is also contesting, after winning support from 501 branches. Such a picture provides more space for political deals, and a transfer of votes from one candidate to another should not surprise anyone. Everyone knows Mantashe can be a ferocious political operator/competitor.

That said, for Mantashe to find himself in this position after all these years is surprising, especially considering the senior authority he once held in the movement.

Five years ago, this journalist described Mantashe’s decade as ANC secretary-general as being “in the centre of the ANC’s gravity field”. It was clear then, as it is now, that he had played a key role, probably the key role, in keeping the ANC together from the end of the Polokwane conference to the beginning of the 2017 Nasrec conference.

When he was elected chair (after refusing to run for the position of secretary-general again), he appeared to be a crucial figure in terms of his support for President Cyril Ramaphosa.

Certainly, there must have been times when his support for Ramaphosa and his agenda was crucial.

It is difficult to imagine what would have happened if he had not backed Ramaphosa on the “step-aside” resolution, for example.

Three major issues

Despite that, there have been perhaps three major issues which have led to controversy, and perhaps, a decline in his popularity among ordinary voters, and, by the look of it, ANC members too.

The first was a strange incident, which came as a complete shock to many who had reported on Mantashe over the years.

In 2019, the Sunday World newspaper alleged that Mantashe had claimed to have paid money to two of its journalists to not publish a story. The paper had found evidence that he had been having extramarital relations with a young woman (who had also been linked to the then finance minister, Tito Mboweni). He then claimed to have paid the paper’s journalists to not run the story.

In the end, after discussions with the SA National Editors’ Forum, he confirmed both that he had told the Sunday World he had paid their journalists, and that he had not, in fact, paid them.

This appeared to be a case of a politician behaving badly and then lying about it. And while there may be virtually no political significance to his actions, for some, it would have revealed that he was prepared to lie and damage a publication in the process, to avoid the consequences of his own actions.

The second issue was the evidence at the Zondo Commission that he had benefited from payments from Bosasa.

Again, considering that Mantashe had never been accused of taking money directly through corruption, this came as a surprise to many.

A further consequence of this finding was that Mantashe announced that he would challenge the findings of the commission.

This meant that as the chair of the ANC he was both defending the Zondo Commission and challenging its findings.

But perhaps the biggest overall factor in what may be his decline in political potency has been his work as the minister of mineral resources and energy.

This would be a contentious position for anyone at this particular period in history. Such are the demands of our energy crisis, the situation at Eskom, the problems of the climate crisis and the difficulties of managing all of the constituencies involved, it would seem almost impossible for anyone to emerge unscathed.

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Backing the coal lobby

Interestingly, Mantashe’s apparent ability to manage competing constituencies which he displayed while he was ANC secretary-general has not been much in evidence during this crisis.

Rather, he has given the impression of backing the coal lobby.

While the rest of the world is shifting towards renewable energy, our minister of energy appears to want South Africa to move in another direction.

But, as Professor Anthony Butler has pointed out, there may well be political rationality to this. The coal mining industry represents a massive constituency for the ANC that is ignored at the ruling party’s peril.

Still, it appears that Mantashe is in a minority in his views.

Eskom CEO André de Ruyter put it plainly while speaking at the Daily Maverick Gathering last week. He pointed out that it was virtually impossible for us to rely on coal for electricity in the future. As he put it, the “Stone Age didn’t end because of a lack of stones”.

Meanwhile, speaking on SAfm on Monday morning, De Ruyter confirmed that he does not discuss energy policy with Mantashe directly, but does engage in “spirited debate” with top officials.

At the same time, while our energy crisis deepens, it is becoming clear to many people that Mantashe is the only person in the country with the legal authority to allow more generation capacity to be added to the grid.

Despite that, he has not played a major part in public debate on the issue. For someone who had such a marked public profile in his previous role, he has been much quieter in this debate.

This means that it is, perhaps, easier for his opponents to cast blame on him, and to claim that he is responsible for the lack of new generation capacity.

At times, this has also appeared to be in stark contrast to the ANC’s publicly stated policy on energy, which appears to be heading in the direction of a Just Transition.

This means that for some in the energy policy space, perhaps the most important question that will be raised by the December conference is whether, if Mantashe loses political power, that will lead to a change in our energy policy.

Of course, it does not necessarily follow that if Mantashe loses his re-election bid he would then be removed as energy minister. And as long as he is in that position, he is the only person with legal authority over policy.

One of the main reasons Mantashe has had significant political power, and perhaps the ability to act as a handbrake on energy reform, is because he was so important to Ramaphosa. For a period, it seemed that without Mantashe Ramaphosa would be dangerously vulnerable.

But, if the December conference goes as is currently predicted, and Ramaphosa does win by a large margin, this will no longer be the case. And this, more than the election for chair of the ANC, could be the important issue here.

As a result, Ramaphosa may feel able to move further and faster on energy reform than he already has. (Whoever is in the post may well still face the same problems Mantashe does now, however.)

It should be remembered that Mantashe is a person of prodigious political talent, who has shown impressive acumen. It may be too soon to make definitive predictions about his future.

Those watching our energy policy will have to wait and see what the future holds. DM