Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber’s worst nightmare has been realised in recent months, with as many as five starting flyhalf options — and essentially five of the nation’s top goal-kickers — struck from the Test roster.

South Africa’s goal-kicking success rate sits at 75%. It’s a mediocre return for a side with grand ambitions, which sees them ranked 10th on a list including all of the Rugby Championship and Six Nations teams.

The Boks went down 19-16 to Ireland in Dublin recently after fluffing three attempts at goal. In the aftermath, the South African media and the public demanded answers, and while Nienaber did his best to acknowledge the concerns, he could not provide any solutions.

The fact of the matter is that the Boks – at this stage – have no established or experienced goal-kicking options. It’s a precarious state of affairs with tour fixtures against France, Italy and England to come, and the 2023 World Cup less than a year away.

Damian Willemse is one of the players struggling with consistent goal-kicking at Test level .(Photo: Anton Geyser/Gallo Images)

Pollard conspicuous by his absence

During the early stages of the 2019 World Cup, some questioned whether Handré Pollard deserved the Bok No 10 jersey, let alone the kicking duties. The resilient flyhalf bounced back in the playoffs to boot the Boks to glory.

If not for Pollard’s clutch penalty against Wales in the dying minutes of the semi-final, the Boks would not have progressed to the decider against England. While he missed his first attempt in the final, he recovered to convert all subsequent kicks, and to boost his side to a famous 32-12 victory.

 Pollard hasn’t been flawless from the kicking tee in the ensuing years, but his overall success rate has improved. Before breaking down with a knee injury in the first Test against Australia, Pollard boasted an 88% success rate for the 2022 season.

Only three players, namely Bernard Foley (Australia), Paulo Garbisi (Italy) and Noah Lolesio (Australia), have been more accurate across the calendar year. This analysis includes players from the respective Rugby Championship and Six Nations teams who have completed 10 kicks or more.

Statistically speaking, Pollard has been more accurate than Emiliano Boffelli (Argentina), Melvyn Jaminet (France) and Johnny Sexton (Ireland). And yet, South Africa are ranked behind all of their Rugby Championship and Six Nations counterparts on the goal-kicking ladder.

When Pollard — and Frans Steyn — have been unavailable, the Boks have struggled in this department. It begs the question of how South Africa might fare at the 2023 World Cup if these players are ruled out.

Pollard has suffered a series of knee injuries over the course of his career, while Steyn (35) has already said that the global tournament may be a bridge too far for his battered body. It’s likely that one or even both of these players may not travel to France next year. There is also some uncertainty around Jantjies’ future with the Bok team.

Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations

Boks’ best laid plan in tatters

Rassie Erasmus used two specialist flyhalves over the course of the 2018 and 2019 seasons — Pollard and Elton Jantjies. Both travelled to the World Cup in Japan as goal-kicking options, although in the playoffs, it was the versatile Frans Steyn who was preferred as the flyhalf cover on the bench.

All three were included in Nienaber’s squad in the lead-up to the British & Irish Lions series in 2021. At that stage, the Bok coaches were determined to develop Damian Willemse into a starting fullback option that could cover inside centre and flyhalf in an emergency.

Morné Steyn was recalled for his kicking skills, and it was hoped that the decorated veteran would remain with the squad through to the 2023 World Cup. Steyn opted to retire from international rugby after the 2021 Rugby Championship, and this decision forced the Bok coaches to pursue Johan Goosen as someone who could fulfil that third flyhalf role.

The Bulls No 10 sustained a serious knee injury during the early stages of the United Rugby Championship, and was ruled out for the better part of a year. As a result, the Boks went into the 2022 season with only two specialist flyhalf options — yet three world-class kickers, given Frans Steyn was part of a squad that included Pollard and Jantjies.

Opportunity knocks

Fast forward to late October, when the Boks were forced to depart for Europe without most of the aforementioned specialists. Pollard and Frans Steyn were ruled out of the tour due to serious injuries, while Jantjies was afforded time to address personal matters. Goosen’s lack of game time at URC level — as well as a minor injury — saw him included in the South Africa A side rather than the Test squad.

In one sense, the current crisis should be viewed as an opportunity. Willemse, Cheslin Kolbe or even a newcomer such as Manie Libbok could make the most of their goal-kicking opportunities in the remaining matches against France, Italy and England. Goosen may also force his way into the Test reckoning and may make a statement later in the tour.

By the end of the sojourn to Europe, South Africa may have succeeded in developing at least one more goal-kicker.

‘Best kickers in the 88-90% bracket’

Kickers will need to show consistency as well as temperament when tasked with the responsibility.

In a recent interview with Daily Maverick, France kicking coach Vlok Cilliers spoke about the standard of goal-kicking in Test rugby, and what sets the truly great teams apart. As a man who has enjoyed multiple title successes with the Bulls over the years, and who helped France win the Six Nations Grand Slam earlier this year, Cilliers knows what he’s talking about.

“When I started as a coach in 2004, the average success rate in front of goal was around 65%,” Cilliers explained.  “That’s what it took to be considered a top goal-kicker. By 2009, it had gone up to 77%, with Morné Steyn and Dan Carter leading the way at Test level.

France kicking coach Vlok Cilliers. (Photo: Ashley Vlotman/Gallo Images)

“In 2022, however, I would say that top goal-kickers should be averaging between 88 and 90% from the tee. The game has changed a great deal and the players clearly have the skills to achieve this.

“Defensive systems have improved to such an extent that points are so hard to come by. You need a kicker to add those two points for the conversion, or to nail those long-range penalties, as they can mean the difference between winning and losing big games and tournaments.”

History shows that World Cup finals are often decided by kickers. Joel Stransky and Jonny Wilkinson struck late drop goals to steer their respective teams to glory in 1995 and 2003, while Stephen Larkham hit a long-range attempt in the 1999 semi-final to eliminate title-favourites South Africa.

Percy Montgomery and Frans Steyn’s accuracy from the tee earned the Boks the title in 2007, while Stephen Donald came off the bench to clinch a narrow victory for New Zealand in the 2011 final.

Nienaber will hope that Pollard is fit and firing by the time the Boks arrive in France next year. It remains to be seen whether Jantjies and Steyn will be in tow.

With that in mind, it’s vital that South Africa unearth another sharpshooter on the present tour to Europe. Few if any would have predicted a situation where a clutch of world-class kickers are unavailable, but the Bok management would be wise to plan for another worst-case scenario next year. DM