ANALYSIS
Politically dynamic, or just plain supervolcanic? ANC’s internal fissures may tear it apart
With the ANC’s branches now presumed to have finished making their nominations for leadership positions ahead of the party’s elective conference next month, and with various ‘leaders’ in the party openly scathing of their own organisation, many would be forgiven for feeling that the governing party is tearing itself apart.
Those who believe the current ructions in the ANC spell the end of the party may want to take a breath. This has happened before — almost exactly five years ago. The true test, though, of the ANC’s ability to continue existing as a somewhat coherent party may be whether it is able to elect leadership and remain one organisation in December. While it may pass that test, it may still fail the other one, which is whether it is coherent enough to actually change our society and successfully retain power in 2024. The real failure of the ANC remains — its enduring inability to rally behind one new leader or one group of leaders.
This last weekend saw another tsunami of political activity inside the governing party.
While the last branches met to finalise their nominations, former president Kgalema Motlanthe told the Sunday Times he believed President Cyril Ramaphosa should come clean about the Phala Phala forex scandal.
Another former president, Jacob Zuma, explained why he believed Ramaphosa’s election five years ago as ANC leader was illegitimate, and claimed he should leave office.
Tourism minister and National Executive Committee (NEC) member Lindiwe Sisulu again said that her own boss, Ramaphosa, should step aside over Phala Phala, and complained that he had not properly supported her in her job as foreign affairs minister.
Ramaphosa hung me out to dry over SA Embassy issue, claims Lindiwe Sisulu
And, the party’s head of organising and former minister (and Bosasa recipient) Nomvula Mokonyane suggested that the current NEC was the “weakest ever” in the history of the movement. She suggested that the ANC’s NEC was still meeting virtually because people were physically afraid of each other, or at least, of meeting in one venue.
At the same time, the National Task Team of the ANC Youth League voted to support Zweli Mkhize rather than Ramaphosa for the ANC’s leadership, with these candidates completing the slate:
- Dr Zweli Mkhize – president
- Paul Mashatile – deputy president
- Stanley Mathabatha – national chair
- Fikile Mbalula – secretary-general
- Nomvula Mokonyane – deputy secretary
- Pule Mabe – treasurer-general
All of this can appear to be incredibly dramatic. But it may be important to sift through what is really important and what is not.
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The consequences of Phala Phala
First, it is hard to argue with Motlanthe’s point. As former president Thabo Mbeki has also pointed out, the possible consequences of Phala Phala are immense. Ramaphosa has so far failed to explain in public why he had foreign currency on his farm in defiance of SA Reserve Bank regulations.
Zuma’s latest attack on Ramaphosa may have less of an impact.
Zuma is seen as having an agenda and simply refusing to accept the reality of what happened five years ago. His refusal to accept the authority of the Zondo Commission and his failure to properly disavow those who committed violence in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng last year also mean that he has little, if any, legitimacy, as proven by the KZN ANC’s refusal to back his wish to be chair of the national party.
Sisulu too has been making loud claims against Ramaphosa with very little evidence, and does not appear to have a significant constituency in the ANC.
And while the structure which currently represents the ANC Youth League may be important, its support for Mkhize is hardly decisive. The Youth League itself does not really exist and its leadership members were not elected into their positions. Their endorsement of Mkhize may not have much impact.
A revelation of personal hatred
However, the really significant comment of the weekend may have come from Mokonyane, and her assertion that the NEC is still only having virtual meetings, “Precisely because we have reached a point where we are scared of each other.”
While Mokonyane may have other significant failings, she has a reputation for never leaving us in need of deciphering what she is saying.
This revelation of personal hatred between the party’s senior leaders is hugely important, suggesting that the NEC is failing to operate properly and that it is not fulfilling its function.
It is important to examine the context of Mokonyane’s comments. It is certainly true that in the past, many people in the ANC spoke out or were highly critical of certain leaders during the run-up to a leadership contest.
In 2016, a full year before the 2017 election, the then chief whip, Jackson Mthembu, said the entire ANC NEC should resign, including himself and the leader at the time, Zuma.
Later, in early 2017, NEC member Mathole Motshekga said Zuma should resign because he was damaging the party. Motshekga, like Mthembu, retained his positions in the ANC and in Parliament.
This suggests that what happened then in the ANC is repeating itself in this new cycle and that while it seems that the ANC is about to spontaneously combust, that might not be the case in the real world, where it will still be able to hold its conference and elect its new national leadership.
This follows a pattern set by other parties, both in South Africa and other countries, during internal leadership contests.
One of the reasons that this is happening is because the ANC’s leadership contest is more transparent than ever before, with candidates giving public interviews. This was always going to give the impression the party was divided, as happened when the DA in South Africa or the Conservative Party in the UK held public leadership contests.
It is probably impossible to do this without giving the impression that a party is divided. Those who contest for leadership positions have to explain why they are different to their rivals and why members should choose them, hence the perceived divisions.
That said, the true test of a party may be what happens after its leadership contest, and whether a party is able to rally around whichever leader is elected to whichever position.
This is where the ANC may have failed in the years after the 2017 contest. It seems obvious that the NEC, and the party more generally, have failed to rally around the leadership that was elected — it has been unable to fully agree on any programme of action, whether it be to fight corruption, or remove those against whom findings have been made, or fixing Eskom.
If this is the case, it seems unlikely that it will pass this test after the leadership election next month. For the moment, there is no reason to believe that ANC will be able to elect a more united leadership than it did five years ago, and that it will continue to fail the real test of uniting behind the new leadership and implementing a coherent plan of action. DM
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What a bunch of useless idiots, I wish they would just go back into exile!!
Absolutely. What a shambles the ANC is from beginning to end; top to bottom. To think we once put our hopes on this party – now they are anti-party, anti-people, anti-poor. And the people most affected by their corrupt mismanagement of everything will elect the same dysfunctional leadership to corrupt power again.
The problem with almost every analysis Mr Grootes does, is that he gives equal weight to a very dangerous mix of the very poor bunch that is the ANC, today and has s been for the past decade.
He has extreme difficulty calling out the corrupt baggage that so many carry around and the fact that so many are determined to hold on to the coattails of power – or of course to be the “main man” themselves – because they know that if they do not, then the chances of them going to jail increase exponentially.
None of them can be differentiated by views on significant issues – they all espouse the view that they serve as part of a collective as the whim of the party – and so, in theory it does not matter who gets elected.
But we all know it matters enormously, so equal weight is given to what is likely to be a minor misdeed that gave rise to Phala-Phala, as is given to Zuma acting with the Gupta’s and stealing thens of billions and destroying Transnet, Eskom, PRASA, Armscor… the list goes on and on; they all have their little “skeleyanna’s” … but they are just not the same.
Not one of them either has the vision, or certainly not the courage, to set out the direction they believe the country should go in and are simply content to be father christmas doling out bags of goodies – without of course going into details of who will be paying, and so it all continues to slide away as the article on education and the poor quality of results makes clear.
What Stephen tries to do is to give you facts in terms of who supports who in the ANC conference and is not judging any of them, but his intention is for you to grasp the implications of choices various groupings are making. Journalists do not determine the thinking of those who will be participating in the conference but can simply inform you. We are all watching what is happening right now in the US and the possibility of the Democrats losing the House of Representatives with implications of January 6 Committee thrown out next year and the insurrection would never happened according to the Republicans .
This is the context within which Stephen must report with some believing that state capture never happened within the ANC and the electorate. That includes the ANCYL Task team majority. We need to be very careful because if we say Phala Phala is a small misdemeanour because you are saying a matter that involves abuse of power and violation of oath of office is a minor misdemeanour is less important because it is Cyril. This is what fuels the RET. We must have an even hand on issues. CNN is looking at what causes extremism and its rise in the US. It is this attitude that promotes them hence some of us are opposed to journalists who say some are not fit for a due process. I have no truck with Zuma but he can appeal until cows come home if the law allows him but we must ensure that due process is followed and some of his antics that have no legal basis must not be entertained.
The ANC tearing itself apart…….. Consigning the ANC to history and the ANC becoming another classic heroic tragedy can’t happen fast enough, especially for the majority. Bring it on.
Stephen is smoking the good stuff. He is still labouring under the misapprehension that this is a political party. It is nothing but a criminal mafia intent on getting its hands on the diminishing assets of the country. Not one of the thugs and thieves on the various slates has the slightest interest in the future of the country.
If the ANC at the top level is so divided and ineffective how can the people stomach the goings on at municipal level where the ANC, and the EFF appear, to be disrupting important council business and making take-over bids. Lack of confidence in our local leadership is seriously problematic.
Everybody is after patronage power and access to public funds. Jon is spot on.
The article is interesting in bringing some of the issues we will be looking at in trying to understand the outcomes of the Conference. The importance is that if Cyril loses it means a change of Cabinet next year February, and more importantly the fiscal and monetary policy direction of the country. Financial markets are fickle and will react to these changes and this will be reflected in prices. However, the ANCYL does not have the muscle in the ANC Conference except being vocal. The branches will determine the outcome and what happens between the ANC Conference and 2024 elections is what market analysts are looking at. The contest between Cyril Ramaphosa and Zwelini Mkhize is who the CR22 want as Deputy. If they continue on Senzo Mchunu, then Gauteng goes with Zweli Mkhize. On the national Chairperson , if Cr22 insist on Mantashe they may have the majority of Limpopo going with Zweli Mkhize. Mbalula is a non – starter as there is no Province suporting him. The two candidates will be Mdumiseni Ntuli (Western Cape and Eastern Cape faction of Mabuyane and a groundswell support in Gauteng and other Provinces). Nomvula irrespective what people may feel has a lot of Provinces behind her. Febe Potgieter may be the Treasurer as I do not think Pule Mabe perceived as a thief will succeed unless the ANC says he will raise money from members as I do not see any business person giving money to this person.