Had former president Jacob Zuma served his full 15-month sentence for contempt of court, he would have been released from Estcourt Correctional Facility a free man today (Friday, 7 October). 

Had he been released on this day, he may have exited the prison with throngs of bused-in supporters waiting in the KwaZulu-Natal sun, eager for a wave from the octogenarian, clamouring to see him dance, to cackle, to plead for his machine-gun.

There may have been a modicum of respect from some sections of the public that the former president had finally done some legitimate time, had he stepped out of prison today.

Instead, what we are experiencing in the lead-up to his private prosecution of a veteran State advocate and a senior journalist on Monday, is a heavyweight turned featherweight; a man so politically weakened that even the sycophants in his home province have turned up their noses at the prospect of him being available for a seat in the top six of the governing party.

‘Joke of the year’

Zuma’s attempt to make himself available for national chairman was met with much scorn and snickering, most notably from the current chairman of the governing party, Gwede Mantashe, who termed the announcement “the biggest joke of the year, actually”. 

At 80 years of age Zuma is an old man teetering on the edge of fragility, consumed by conspiracy theories, vengeance and portraying himself as a victim. He poses no political threat, and his attempts at intimidation — as in the private prosecution of Billy Downer and Karyn Maughan — are not surprising. They are instead contrived, hackneyed — an attempt at a show of power from a man who has very little of the stuff left.

As of today, Zuma will no longer have to account to the Department of Correctional Services. He may again attend public events. No doubt the thought of being truly free will add a rhythm to his step, despite his serious but-as-yet-unnamed medical condition/terminal illness that will form the base of Monday’s hearing.

No bed for old man: Zuma’s prison experience, as revealed by Arthur Fraser

The past 15 months have not been kind to Zuma or his ambitions of solidifying himself as the wisest of ANC elders. And try as he might, he is unable to shake his inevitable showdown with Downer at the Arms Deal graft trial or the prospect that even if he approaches the Constitutional Court, he could still be ordered back to jail because of his “invalid” release on medical parole.

Bleak future

The future is bleak for the former president as he attempts to navigate a new political path. Some of the newly elected ANC leadership and councillors in KwaZulu-Natal may have made their way to Nkandla for a photo opportunity with Zuma, and to receive his “blessing”, but this was another contrived pilgrimage, a token to garner nods of approval from Zuma’s remaining base.  

So inconsequential are his desires now, that Zuma was unable to convince the ANC in his home province to endorse his ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma for the post of ANC president, come the party’s elective conference in December. 

In September, Zuma allegedly “instructed” fellow fallen cadre Ace Magashule to garner support for Dlamini Zuma’s presidential ambitions. But so equally weakened is Magashule without unfettered access to taxpayers’ money, that that also fell flat.

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In yet another indication of Zuma now being politically feeble, reports indicate that Dlamini Zuma has started to work with Lindiwe Sisulu on a joint campaign to oust Cyril Ramaphosa come December. Sisulu is not viewed as a serious contender for the ANC throne, and while Dlamini Zuma at least has political gravitas, she lacks charisma, will always have ties to her ex and, by association, the string of corruption allegations that follow him like a puppy. 

Constrained by the policies of their party — the same policies that have steered South Africa to the brink of being a failed state — Dlamini Zuma and Sisulu will have to ride on the “time for a woman president” wave, while pointing to the Phala Phala allegations made against Ramaphosa, for which he is yet to adequately answer.  

Waning influence

Zuma’s core strength has always been in KwaZulu-Natal, and the longer he stays out of political life, the more his sphere of influence is reduced. There is nothing unusual about a former statesman losing sway. But when, like the former president, one is facing multiple graft charges, the only way to garner public sympathy is to scream political persecution, which Zuma has done on every available occasion.  

The former president is on an active campaign to reshape the Jacob Zuma narrative. This week, his foundation called on production houses to submit proposals for a documentary about his life.

Read in Daily Maverick: “The Second Coming — what’s behind Jacob Zuma’s return to ANC elective lists?”

Notably, the foundation’s brief does not mention Zuma’s nearly two-decade battle with the justice system to keep the Arms Deal matter from coming to trial, his links to the infamous Gupta family, and a host of other serious allegations.

It is not a secret that next week’s private prosecution has little chance of success, and that the legal representatives for Maughan and Downer are likely to chew up and spit out Zuma’s arguments. This will, in turn, give Zuma another opportunity to publicly malign the judiciary, the media and the National Prosecuting Authority, while portraying himself as a victim of a wider conspiracy. Over and over again. DM