The emerging crowd of ANC deputy leader contenders may suggest that many people are supporting Ramaphosa not because of any firm direction, but to avoid rocking the boat before the next general election is secured.

In the past few weeks, there have been indications that at least six people in the ANC will receive some form of nomination to contest for the position of deputy leader.

Justice Minister Ronald Lamola said months ago he would contest for the position because he would obey “the will of branches”.

There are strong indications that current Treasurer Paul Mashatile will also contest for the position.

The Minister of Human Settlements Mmamaloko Kubayi also appears to have some support.

Over the past weekend, the Eastern Cape ANC’s provincial executive committee said it was endorsing Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane for the position.

So far there has been almost complete silence from current deputy leader and the SA Deputy President, David Mabuza. But considering his political history, and the role he played in the ANC’s 2017 conference, it seems unlikely that he has lost all of his political ambition.

The Sowetan reported on Tuesday that some people in the Eastern Cape would prefer Small Business Development Minister Stella Ndabeni-Abrahams to win the position.

New electoral structure 

One of the problems with making any predictions is the new structure of the ANC elections in December. The position of party leader will be among the positions voted on first. In other words, candidates will contest each other directly, no previous election will have an impact on this.

But the position of deputy leader will only be voted on in a second ballot after the election of a leader. The outcome of the leadership election may well have an impact on the deputy leader election.

This was probably a deliberate move by the ANC to stamp out the process of slates, or groups of people contesting against one another, which resulted in winner(s) taking all positions and losers having no further participation in leading the party.

Despite having such a large number of people who appear to be contesting for deputy leader, it is important to note that the branches themselves have not yet said who they are nominating. And, over the next few months it should become fairly obvious who really has strong support and who does not. Currently, provincial leaders are meeting one another to discuss preferred candidates; that process may well lead to obvious front-runners.

That said, the fact that so many people believe they could stand a chance to take the position may reveal certain dynamics in the ANC.

While the supporters of these potential candidates will talk up their attributes, so far there is no indication of any ideological differences between them. In other words, it is not clear that any one candidate would support a particular policy that differs from a policy supported by another candidate.

Ideology takes a back seat

And this may be part of a much bigger process in the ANC, where ideology no longer appears to matter.

It was not always this way.

For example, in 2007, one of the reasons that Jacob Zuma received such strong support was that he was seen as a “Leftist”. Certainly, it was a major factor in the decisions by the SACP and Cosatu to back him so strongly.

This was partly a reaction to President Thabo Mbeki’s GEAR policy.

Also, Zuma promised, late in his campaign, to declare a state of emergency on “Aids and crime”. This was in stark contrast to Mbeki’s stance on those issues. And it was clear that a Zuma victory would lead to the much greater provision of antiretroviral drugs in public hospitals.

It is not certain that there are any major ideological differences between any of the candidates for deputy leader here. Of course, this may change, and they may start to campaign in a particular way. But so far, there is no indication of what they believe in.

It may also suggest that within the ANC are simply more groups and more changeable groups of interests than they were in the past. Instead of the two camps at Polokwane, or the two factions in 2017, there are now more groups within the party.

This may also illuminate one of the strange dynamics around the widespread support for Ramaphosa.

If there are no serious differences in ideology between those running for deputy leader, and so many people support the current leader, it may be important to ask why this is.

It may suggest that in fact those who support Ramaphosa are banded together only for power. That supporting him is not about ideology at all.

Visit Daily Maverick’s home page for more news, analysis and investigations

This may be an indication of perhaps two aspects. The first is that there is no “obvious leader” to take over. In other words, the prospects of supporting anyone else for the position should simply lead to more divisions in the party, and no one wants to rock the boat.

The other aspect may be the fact that, despite his repeated refusal to publicly answer questions about the Phala Phala scandal, he is still the most popular politician in the country. And the only person who has support across a broad swath of society.

All of this could suggest that we are at an important point in our process toward a politics that does not concentrate on ideology or policy. That rather our politics is becoming about simple popularity, or about identity and representation.

And that if policy does not matter, what will take its place is the politics of patronage and deal-making. DM